ahmad zubir为首的一些人预测cpo有望回到RM2000-RM2500，这是不可实现的，中东的海市蜃楼的迹象已日益明显，即使油价能回到60美元，那么cpo的breakeven也不过是RM1600，这要怎么实现RM2000的cpo？
在利好方面，大型种植公司的成本有望回到RM900。但是，成本越低，cpo下跌空间越大。
如果连大型种植公司都停止放肥，就可以预警，半年到一年内的局势不会好转。
我们假设，半年的每公顷肥料成本是RM1000。
如果半年停止放肥，每公顷流失的cpo产量是320KG，这是根据“直线式”方式，“逐月”减产所计算出来的。
产量损失：0.32 x RM1600 = RM512。
如果半年内cpo price都保持在RM1600，停放肥可省下RM488。
【edit on 2008年12月19】
我们假设，半年的每公顷肥料成本是RM1000。
如果半年停止放肥，每公顷流失的cpo产量是640KG，这是根据“直线式”方式，“逐月”减产所计算出来的。
产量损失：0.64 x RM1600 = RM1024。
如果半年内cpo price都保持在RM1600，停放肥不可省下开销。
上图所示的例子是，前半年停止施肥，产量逐步流失。施肥后的半年，产量逐渐恢复。
所以正确cpo流失应是640kg（红色区），不是320kg，更正。
【end of edit】
对 植物营养而言，施肥量和产量是曲线关系，如果画成图表(X-axis=肥料，Y-axis=产量)，他是一个倒立的U，如果肥料过量，产量减少到0。放肥 的意义是，只要marginal fertilizer cost < marginal production，那么肥料就该放。
停放和少放，在意义上是不同的。
如果cpo达到RM4000，那么一棵油棕树放15kg的肥料是不亏本的，如果cpo是RM1600，那么该放多少kg肥料才是恰当的？
上市公司的平均施肥量是10kg。
无论如何，都不应该是停放。
以上的举例只是博主个人疑问，不具任何专业意见，博主和普通人一样，不看科研报告。
在利好方面，大型种植公司的成本有望回到RM900。但是，成本越低，cpo下跌空间越大。
如果连大型种植公司都停止放肥，就可以预警，半年到一年内的局势不会好转。
如果半年停止放肥，每公顷流失的cpo产量是320KG，这是根据“直线式”方式，“逐月”减产所计算出来的。
产量损失：0.32 x RM1600 = RM512。
如果半年内cpo price都保持在RM1600，停放肥可省下RM488。
【edit on 2008年12月19】
我们假设，半年的每公顷肥料成本是RM1000。
如果半年停止放肥，每公顷流失的cpo产量是640KG，这是根据“直线式”方式，“逐月”减产所计算出来的。
产量损失：0.64 x RM1600 = RM1024。
如果半年内cpo price都保持在RM1600，停放肥不可省下开销。
上图所示的例子是，前半年停止施肥，产量逐步流失。施肥后的半年，产量逐渐恢复。
所以正确cpo流失应是640kg（红色区），不是320kg，更正。
【end of edit】
对 植物营养而言，施肥量和产量是曲线关系，如果画成图表(X-axis=肥料，Y-axis=产量)，他是一个倒立的U，如果肥料过量，产量减少到0。放肥 的意义是，只要marginal fertilizer cost < marginal production，那么肥料就该放。
停放和少放，在意义上是不同的。
如果cpo达到RM4000，那么一棵油棕树放15kg的肥料是不亏本的，如果cpo是RM1600，那么该放多少kg肥料才是恰当的？
上市公司的平均施肥量是10kg。
无论如何，都不应该是停放。
以上的举例只是博主个人疑问，不具任何专业意见，博主和普通人一样，不看科研报告。
15 October 2008
化肥市场概述(不时整理中)
陆陆续续收集了有关化肥的资料，但是没时间整理出一套完整的系统，如果要求这么严格，那么永远都不能写blog了，因此，只好从简了。
以下资料来源太广，因此不注明出处，其中不少自己的描述，不排除有错处。
氮肥
氮肥的全球供应来源分布很广，这是因为氮是构成自然界的重要元素，虽然氮随处可见(空气中)，但是植物并不能吸收**，城市化的影响，土壤氮流失很快，因此工业生产氮肥的需求是迫切的。
**除了少数具有固氮作用(Nitrogen fixation)的农作物。
在所有氮肥产品中，尿素（UREA，CO(NH2)2）是氮含量（46%）最高的化肥，因此尿素的市场价格主导了氮肥市场。
被利用在工业炸药的硝酸铵含氮元素为35%（简称硝铵，NH4NO3），也是主要的氮肥，他和尿素价格有同步系数。
氨 （NH3，阿摩尼亚），形态多变，溶于水的氨是氨水（铵，NH4+），低温处理的氨是液氨（液态，无水氨），无论他怎么复杂，总括一句就是他是氮肥原料。 阿摩尼亚和二氧化碳在加热情况下可生产出尿素，值得一提的是，尿素的生产成本的50%-70%来自能源，不管是用电力，天然气，或煤炭，这些热能成本是的 不能避免的。因此，氮肥的价格是和原油同步的，但是原油暴跌并不会马上影响氮肥走势，这是因为商家避免亏损。
以马化学（ccm）为例，马化学的阿摩尼亚是从印尼进口的。
较普遍期货代号
UREA,46%nitrogen
UAN,32%nitrogen
UREA价格可参考印度Yuzhnyy和Baltic港口价格
2008-oct-16记录
2008-oct-9, urea weekly价格是 520美元/mt，这与7.8.9月价格位于760.770.706，是严重下跌的。这个10月是多事之秋，从事氮肥生产的Terra Industries Inc股价也是无法幸免，不到一个月时间股价从44美元掉到了19美元。
2008-oct-16, urea weekly价格是 345美元，进一步急剧下滑。
UREA价格随着油价锐减了一半，可以预见，零售商为了避免亏损不愿减低售价，购买者等待更便宜的价格买入。这些问题本可以在期货市场得到解决，但期货市场并不活络。 （石油期货是另一途径）。 如果种植者lock了太多或太久的UREA，可说是输家。
磷肥
磷肥主要分成两类，一类是天然的鸟粪和动物骨骼。一类是化学磷肥。
中国是磷肥产量第一的国家，其次是美国。
2007年是中国磷肥市场重要的一年，该年成为净出口国，
最早的磷肥是过磷酸钙，现已逐渐被磷酸铵（氮磷复合肥，分成一铵，二铵，三铵）和重过磷酸钙（TSP)等高浓度磷肥取代。
磷肥期货种类为TSP和DAP（磷酸二铵，复合肥）。
磷肥的原料是磷矿。
有 85％以上的磷矿用于磷肥生产。磷矿的品位按P2O5含量(％）表示，通常为29～38；近年来世界商品磷矿的平均品位为32.5～32.7。美国和其他 一些国家，磷矿的品位以磷酸三钙〔Ca3(PO4)2〕的含量表示。磷矿的质量以品位和所含杂质矿物的种类、数量来进行评价。杂质含量以氧化铁、氧化铝、 氧化镁、氟、氯、氧化钠、氧化钾、二氧化磷、三氧化硫、二氧化硅、有机物等的百分含量表示。磷矿的用途不同，对其质量要求也不一致（见磷肥、磷酸、过磷酸 钙等）。
世界磷矿分布很广，储量约为130Gt（1Gt=10亿吨）。中国磷矿储量在10Gt以上，主要分布在云南、贵州、四川、湖北和 湖南五省。1981年世界磷矿产量为138Mt(实物)，生产国有30多个，主要是美国、苏联和摩洛哥，约占总产量的79％，中国近年来的磷矿产量约为 10Mt（折算成30％P2O5）。
国际上通常将磷矿中的P2O5含量大于30％称为富矿，P2O5含量小于12％称为贫矿。
人 类社会的生存和发展离不开磷，因为农业生产需要大量的磷肥。可是，现已探明的磷储量仅够人类使用不足100年，我国(中国）磷矿的开采只有70年！更让人 担忧的是，磷资源不仅十分有限，而且单向流动、不可再生。当人类跨入21世纪门槛时，不得不面对正在发生的磷危机，这绝非耸人听闻。
组分和结构
磷 矿物按其成矿起源可分为沉积岩、变质岩和火成岩。目前，工业开采的约85％是海相沉积磷矿，其余主要为火成岩磷矿。鸟粪层磷矿是鸟粪的直接或间接的堆积物 矿化而成，储量不大，但目前在世界磷矿年产量中约占2％，火成岩或变质岩磷矿品位一般比较低，但可选性好，通过浮选，可得到品位很高的精矿。目前工业开采 的苏联科拉磷矿，南非帕拉博瓦磷矿，巴西雅库皮兰加磷矿，中国锦屏磷矿（见彩图）和黄麦岭磷矿等都属于火成岩磷矿，其产量约占总产量的16％。海相沉积磷 矿的品位高低不一，可选性差别也很大，目前工业开采的是地理位置好、交通运输方便、采矿和富集费用比较低的那部分资源。美国佛罗里达磷矿和摩洛哥磷矿是世 界著名的磷矿生产基地，中国云南滇池磷矿、贵州开阳磷矿和湖北荆襄磷矿都属于海相沉积磷矿，也有相当大的生产规模。
磷肥最普遍的期货代号是TSP， Phosphate rock 和DAP，DAP是复合肥因此不在这里说明。
TSP 的含量（折纯）是46%的P。
钾肥
世 界钾盐资源极为丰富，但资源分布极不均衡，加拿大、俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、德国的合计储量和基础储量分别占世界总量的92%和81%，这几个国家主导了世界钾 肥市场。加拿大钾肥（PotashCorp）公司拥有全球剩余产能的72%，这些寡头有自己的一套不为人知的库存机制，因此钾肥的价格是很独立的。
除了上述国家，其他生产钾肥的地区来自死海和中国盐湖。
钾肥的代表物是氯化钾（Potassium chloride，Muriate of Potash，KCI）。
CCM进口钾肥 from jordan（约旦）,Germany and Russia。
HAPSENG进口钾肥 from CANADA.
氯化钾价格可参考温哥华港口价格。
2008-oct-17记录
十月上旬和中旬，国际氯化钾价格上涨。
【2008-aug-19 edit】
全球最大的钾肥公司potash corp， 股价在这段商品热中涨了16倍，今次的危机让他的股价在几个月内缩水了70%(240 to 74计），但还是高位（相比2004年的12元）。
这公司的现金流不成问题，比较关注的是他们是否滥用了股票回购，不顾短期债务的压迫。
全世界的钾肥有70%控制在他们手上，因此他们的一举一动是令人关注的，如果连玉米，黄豆都不能达到盈利，那么potash必会向现实妥协，降低售价。
【end of 2008-aug-19 edit】
复合肥
DAP， diammonium phosphate， (NH4)2HPO4。
磷酸二铵又称磷酸氢二铵（DAP），是含氮磷两种营养成分的复合肥。
磷酸一铵，二铵，三铵，是同性质的。
一般上生产一吨DAP需要约0.45吨硫磺和约2.2吨磷矿石，另加阿摩尼亚。
硫磺在DAP成本中占比已达6成。
DAP的标准含量是18%nitrogen和46%phosphate，不过不是绝对值，各地规格不一。
DAP价格比TSP稍贵15-30%，这是因为DAP和TSP的制作非常接近。
制作DAP复合肥最需考虑的问题是供应和原料成本，上述的原料缺一不可，硫磺和阿摩尼亚常常出现在磷矿产地的港口，价格差异也不同。
TSP的生产问题不比DAP少。
硫磺来自硫铁矿，也来自石油和天然气。
DAP价格可参考美国坦帕港口价格。
2008-10-17记录
2008-10-16的DAP价格是970美元，这也是说，DAP价格自7月份的1185美元，下跌了19%
MAP,
11% nitrogen和52% phosphate ，为标准规格。
虽然MAP在生产成本、制作过程、运输成本、库存成本都比DAP占优，但他的参考价值和市场份额没有DAP明显。
补充
中国对肥料出口征收超过100%的税收，如果在年尾“重新检讨”，势必让肥料市场重新洗牌，但相信改变不会太大。
中国氮磷刚好处于自给自足的水平，世界磷生产集中在北美。
中国需入口硫磺以达到复合肥的平衡。
南亚是尿素生产集中地。
“P”是以P2O5计量，上述P折纯量皆是P2O5。
油棕
报告常常不具名肥料的“实物”和“折纯”，也没有透露NPK的折纯用量，因此我们看不懂分析员讲什么。
举个例子，分析员说IOI的施肥成本是RM1200每亩(行业总平均RM1600)，也就是一棵树每年需花费RM20, 这相等于每公斤肥料价格是RM2.5
这只是一个总值，没有细分清楚，因此我们没有办法分析。
如果是15-15-15，把NPK折纯量拆解，答案可能接近。
【2008-aug-18 edit】
也就是根据1)尿素氮折纯量2)氯化钾钾折纯量3）TSP的P2O5折纯量，进行计算,从中找出目前的施肥成本，如果跟进分析报导，是不明确的。
如果肥料继续挤压FFB售价，那么没有谈判能力的小园主必将面对亏损，这比一两年前的情况更糟，因为成本是回不到过去的。
这回的经济洗牌不只要洗金融，恐怕连油棕都要洗净。两国的农业.原产部长无能，没有落实方案，大不了我们也搞个生柴战略储备，至少可以把危机压个十年。
【end of 2008-aug-18 edit】
以下资料来源太广，因此不注明出处，其中不少自己的描述，不排除有错处。
氮肥
氮肥的全球供应来源分布很广，这是因为氮是构成自然界的重要元素，虽然氮随处可见(空气中)，但是植物并不能吸收**，城市化的影响，土壤氮流失很快，因此工业生产氮肥的需求是迫切的。
**除了少数具有固氮作用(Nitrogen fixation)的农作物。
在所有氮肥产品中，尿素（UREA，CO(NH2)2）是氮含量（46%）最高的化肥，因此尿素的市场价格主导了氮肥市场。
被利用在工业炸药的硝酸铵含氮元素为35%（简称硝铵，NH4NO3），也是主要的氮肥，他和尿素价格有同步系数。
氨 （NH3，阿摩尼亚），形态多变，溶于水的氨是氨水（铵，NH4+），低温处理的氨是液氨（液态，无水氨），无论他怎么复杂，总括一句就是他是氮肥原料。 阿摩尼亚和二氧化碳在加热情况下可生产出尿素，值得一提的是，尿素的生产成本的50%-70%来自能源，不管是用电力，天然气，或煤炭，这些热能成本是的 不能避免的。因此，氮肥的价格是和原油同步的，但是原油暴跌并不会马上影响氮肥走势，这是因为商家避免亏损。
以马化学（ccm）为例，马化学的阿摩尼亚是从印尼进口的。
较普遍期货代号
UREA,46%nitrogen
UAN,32%nitrogen
UREA价格可参考印度Yuzhnyy和Baltic港口价格
2008-oct-16记录
2008-oct-9, urea weekly价格是 520美元/mt，这与7.8.9月价格位于760.770.706，是严重下跌的。这个10月是多事之秋，从事氮肥生产的Terra Industries Inc股价也是无法幸免，不到一个月时间股价从44美元掉到了19美元。
2008-oct-16, urea weekly价格是 345美元，进一步急剧下滑。
UREA价格随着油价锐减了一半，可以预见，零售商为了避免亏损不愿减低售价，购买者等待更便宜的价格买入。这些问题本可以在期货市场得到解决，但期货市场并不活络。 （石油期货是另一途径）。 如果种植者lock了太多或太久的UREA，可说是输家。
磷肥
磷肥主要分成两类，一类是天然的鸟粪和动物骨骼。一类是化学磷肥。
中国是磷肥产量第一的国家，其次是美国。
2007年是中国磷肥市场重要的一年，该年成为净出口国，
最早的磷肥是过磷酸钙，现已逐渐被磷酸铵（氮磷复合肥，分成一铵，二铵，三铵）和重过磷酸钙（TSP)等高浓度磷肥取代。
磷肥期货种类为TSP和DAP（磷酸二铵，复合肥）。
磷肥的原料是磷矿。
有 85％以上的磷矿用于磷肥生产。磷矿的品位按P2O5含量(％）表示，通常为29～38；近年来世界商品磷矿的平均品位为32.5～32.7。美国和其他 一些国家，磷矿的品位以磷酸三钙〔Ca3(PO4)2〕的含量表示。磷矿的质量以品位和所含杂质矿物的种类、数量来进行评价。杂质含量以氧化铁、氧化铝、 氧化镁、氟、氯、氧化钠、氧化钾、二氧化磷、三氧化硫、二氧化硅、有机物等的百分含量表示。磷矿的用途不同，对其质量要求也不一致（见磷肥、磷酸、过磷酸 钙等）。
世界磷矿分布很广，储量约为130Gt（1Gt=10亿吨）。中国磷矿储量在10Gt以上，主要分布在云南、贵州、四川、湖北和 湖南五省。1981年世界磷矿产量为138Mt(实物)，生产国有30多个，主要是美国、苏联和摩洛哥，约占总产量的79％，中国近年来的磷矿产量约为 10Mt（折算成30％P2O5）。
国际上通常将磷矿中的P2O5含量大于30％称为富矿，P2O5含量小于12％称为贫矿。
人 类社会的生存和发展离不开磷，因为农业生产需要大量的磷肥。可是，现已探明的磷储量仅够人类使用不足100年，我国(中国）磷矿的开采只有70年！更让人 担忧的是，磷资源不仅十分有限，而且单向流动、不可再生。当人类跨入21世纪门槛时，不得不面对正在发生的磷危机，这绝非耸人听闻。
组分和结构
磷 矿物按其成矿起源可分为沉积岩、变质岩和火成岩。目前，工业开采的约85％是海相沉积磷矿，其余主要为火成岩磷矿。鸟粪层磷矿是鸟粪的直接或间接的堆积物 矿化而成，储量不大，但目前在世界磷矿年产量中约占2％，火成岩或变质岩磷矿品位一般比较低，但可选性好，通过浮选，可得到品位很高的精矿。目前工业开采 的苏联科拉磷矿，南非帕拉博瓦磷矿，巴西雅库皮兰加磷矿，中国锦屏磷矿（见彩图）和黄麦岭磷矿等都属于火成岩磷矿，其产量约占总产量的16％。海相沉积磷 矿的品位高低不一，可选性差别也很大，目前工业开采的是地理位置好、交通运输方便、采矿和富集费用比较低的那部分资源。美国佛罗里达磷矿和摩洛哥磷矿是世 界著名的磷矿生产基地，中国云南滇池磷矿、贵州开阳磷矿和湖北荆襄磷矿都属于海相沉积磷矿，也有相当大的生产规模。
磷肥最普遍的期货代号是TSP， Phosphate rock 和DAP，DAP是复合肥因此不在这里说明。
TSP 的含量（折纯）是46%的P。
钾肥
世 界钾盐资源极为丰富，但资源分布极不均衡，加拿大、俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、德国的合计储量和基础储量分别占世界总量的92%和81%，这几个国家主导了世界钾 肥市场。加拿大钾肥（PotashCorp）公司拥有全球剩余产能的72%，这些寡头有自己的一套不为人知的库存机制，因此钾肥的价格是很独立的。
除了上述国家，其他生产钾肥的地区来自死海和中国盐湖。
钾肥的代表物是氯化钾（Potassium chloride，Muriate of Potash，KCI）。
CCM进口钾肥 from jordan（约旦）,Germany and Russia。
HAPSENG进口钾肥 from CANADA.
氯化钾价格可参考温哥华港口价格。
2008-oct-17记录
十月上旬和中旬，国际氯化钾价格上涨。
【2008-aug-19 edit】
全球最大的钾肥公司potash corp， 股价在这段商品热中涨了16倍，今次的危机让他的股价在几个月内缩水了70%(240 to 74计），但还是高位（相比2004年的12元）。
这公司的现金流不成问题，比较关注的是他们是否滥用了股票回购，不顾短期债务的压迫。
全世界的钾肥有70%控制在他们手上，因此他们的一举一动是令人关注的，如果连玉米，黄豆都不能达到盈利，那么potash必会向现实妥协，降低售价。
【end of 2008-aug-19 edit】
复合肥
DAP， diammonium phosphate， (NH4)2HPO4。
磷酸二铵又称磷酸氢二铵（DAP），是含氮磷两种营养成分的复合肥。
磷酸一铵，二铵，三铵，是同性质的。
一般上生产一吨DAP需要约0.45吨硫磺和约2.2吨磷矿石，另加阿摩尼亚。
硫磺在DAP成本中占比已达6成。
DAP的标准含量是18%nitrogen和46%phosphate，不过不是绝对值，各地规格不一。
DAP价格比TSP稍贵15-30%，这是因为DAP和TSP的制作非常接近。
制作DAP复合肥最需考虑的问题是供应和原料成本，上述的原料缺一不可，硫磺和阿摩尼亚常常出现在磷矿产地的港口，价格差异也不同。
TSP的生产问题不比DAP少。
硫磺来自硫铁矿，也来自石油和天然气。
DAP价格可参考美国坦帕港口价格。
2008-10-17记录
2008-10-16的DAP价格是970美元，这也是说，DAP价格自7月份的1185美元，下跌了19%
MAP,
11% nitrogen和52% phosphate ，为标准规格。
虽然MAP在生产成本、制作过程、运输成本、库存成本都比DAP占优，但他的参考价值和市场份额没有DAP明显。
补充
中国对肥料出口征收超过100%的税收，如果在年尾“重新检讨”，势必让肥料市场重新洗牌，但相信改变不会太大。
中国氮磷刚好处于自给自足的水平，世界磷生产集中在北美。
中国需入口硫磺以达到复合肥的平衡。
南亚是尿素生产集中地。
“P”是以P2O5计量，上述P折纯量皆是P2O5。
油棕
报告常常不具名肥料的“实物”和“折纯”，也没有透露NPK的折纯用量，因此我们看不懂分析员讲什么。
举个例子，分析员说IOI的施肥成本是RM1200每亩(行业总平均RM1600)，也就是一棵树每年需花费RM20, 这相等于每公斤肥料价格是RM2.5
这只是一个总值，没有细分清楚，因此我们没有办法分析。
如果是15-15-15，把NPK折纯量拆解，答案可能接近。
【2008-aug-18 edit】
也就是根据1)尿素氮折纯量2)氯化钾钾折纯量3）TSP的P2O5折纯量，进行计算,从中找出目前的施肥成本，如果跟进分析报导，是不明确的。
如果肥料继续挤压FFB售价，那么没有谈判能力的小园主必将面对亏损，这比一两年前的情况更糟，因为成本是回不到过去的。
这回的经济洗牌不只要洗金融，恐怕连油棕都要洗净。两国的农业.原产部长无能，没有落实方案，大不了我们也搞个生柴战略储备，至少可以把危机压个十年。
【end of 2008-aug-18 edit】
08 September 2008
14 July 2008
fertilizer player -- CCM
Board: Main
Sector: Industrial Products
GICS: Materials/Diversified Chemicals
Market Value - Total: MYR1,119.2 mln
Summary: Chemical Company of Malaysia (CCM) is the largest manufacturer of compound fertilizers and generic drugs in Malaysia, and a leading producer of industrial and specialty chemicals.
Analyst: Siti Rudziah Salikin
recommendation: hold TP RM3.10
price RM2.78
Date: July 8, 2008
Highlights
The expansion of its fertilizer capacity will make CCM the largest compound fertilizer manufacturer in the region. The fertilizer division is well-positioned to capitalize on the high prices of agricultural commodities, which will drive the demand growth for fertilizer to boost crop output.
The growth prospect for the pharmaceutical segment is promising in our opinion, in view of rising healthcare spending and the expected rise in generic substitutes. As the largest manufacturer of generic drugs in the country, CCM is in a favorable position to benefit from the projected growth for the industry.
We also view positively CCM’s efforts to expand its water care solution to include physical water treatment technology to its present chemical treatment. This will help CCM to weather the current price competition from cheaper imports of industrial chemicals.
We forecast a two-year net profit CAGR of 19.5% for CCM driven by the expansion of the fertilizer division and the growth in the pharmaceutical segment.
Investment Risks
Risks to our recommendation and target price include a reversal in the commodity price uptrend which may reduce the demand for fertilizers. A continued increase in raw material prices and stronger competition from cheaper imports will also put a pressure on margins for the pharmaceuticals and chemicals divisions.
Recommendation
We initiate coverage on CCM with a Hold call and a 12-month target price of MYR3.10.
CCM offers indirect exposure to the buoyant agricultural commodity sector through its expanding fertilizer division and the growing pharmaceutical sector in the country. The stock also gives a decent dividend yield of 5.8%.
At 16x 2008 earnings, the stock trades at a premium to the market’s PER but we believe this is supported by our projected double-digit earnings growth. The valuation is also within the range of multiples of between 14x and 20x for the stock over the past two years.
We continue to value CCM at 16x PER and assign the multiple to our projected earnings for 2009 to arrive at our 12-month target price.
In its 2007 annual report, the company detailed its commitment to the framework on Corporate Social Responsibility. Its social contributions included pharmaceutical donations to the Johor flood victims in 2007 and personal first aid kit donations to Malaysian pilgrims on their Haj under the “Sahabat Korporat Tabung Haji’ programme. CCM also collaborated with Yayasan Jantung Malaysia and the National Diabetes Institute to promote greater public awareness on health issues.
Background
CCM is the largest manufacturer of compound fertilizers and generic drugs in Malaysia, and a leading producer of industrial and specialty chemicals. Listed on the Main Board of Bursa Malaysia in 1966, CCM was part of the UK-based ICI Group, prior to a management buyout in November 1994. Permodalan Nasional Berhad (PNB) became CCM’s controlling shareholder in January 2005. Currently, PNB has 13.7% direct stake in CCM and a 45.9% indirect stake via Skim Amanah Saham Bumiputera. Tan Sri Ab. Rahman bin Omar is the Chairman of CCM and Dato’ Dr. Mohamad Hashim bin Ahmad Tajudin is the Group Managing Director.
CCM’s businesses are divided into three main segments, namely: (i) fertilizers; (ii) chemicals; and (iii) pharmaceuticals. The fertilizers division was the largest revenue contributor in 2007, accounting for 48.2% of total revenue. In terms of profit contribution, the pharmaceuticals segment took the lead, accounting for 53.3% of group pre-tax profit for 2007 with the fertilizers division contributing 33.1%.
Fertilizers
CCM opened Malaysia’s first compound fertilizer plant in Shah Alam in 1967 and is today the largest producer of compound fertilizers in Malaysia with an estimated 30% market share. CCM’s fertilizers are sold under the Cock Head brand, which has an established presence in the region. CCM also trades a wide range of other straight and mixed fertilizers. Its customers generally represent those in the oil palm plantation and cash crops industries. About 60% of sales go to the domestic plantation companies and 30% to domestic small holders. The remaining 10% are exported to the countries in the region.
The expansion of oil palm plantations and the current high prices of agricultural commodities have boosted the demand for and tightened the supply of fertilizers in the country. CCM’s plant in Shah Alam is operating at full capacity of 280,000 tons per year. CCM is investing MYR150 mln in three new fertilizer plants, which will gradually expand its production capacity to 670,000 tons by 2010. The construction of the first plant in Bintulu, Sarawak is expected to start operations by July 2008. The other two plants will be located in Lahad Datu, Sabah and in Medan, Indonesia. The new plants will place CCM closer to its markets, thus reducing the delivery costs. In the meantime, CCM is importing fertilizers as well as contracting out some of the manufacturing to third parties to fulfil the current demand from its customers.
CCM is also converting its existing fertilizer plant in Shah Alam into a safer and lower cost urea-based steam granulation plant from the current ammonia-based NPK Compound Plant. With the conversion, which is expected to take place in 4Q08, CCM expects to reduce its plant maintenance and servicing costs. At the same time, the logistics and handling expenses relating to liquid ammonia, which is currently imported, will be eliminated. CCM plans to spend MYR25 mln for the conversion and will write off MYR15.4 mln in net book value of the fixed assets and spare parts of the current nitric acid plant.
Prices of the main raw materials, such as ammonium sulfate, nitrogen dioxide, potassium and phosphate, have been on the rise. However, due to the strong demand for fertilizers, CCM has been able to pass on the cost increases to its customers through price hikes (the price of compound fertilizers was raised by 15% in September 2007). CCM also indirectly owns a stake in its phosphate supplier, Phosphate Resources Ltd, which operates the largest phosphate mine in Australia. In September 2006, CCM acquired a 16% stake in Perth-based CI Resources Ltd, which holds 39.1% of Phosphate Resources. The strategic ownership helps to ensure an uninterrupted and cost-competitive supply of phosphates to CCM.
Chemicals CCM’s chemical division, which is grouped under CCM Chemical Sdn Bhd, produces various chemical products at its three manufacturing and repacking facilities: (i) chlor-alkali and coagulants plants in Pasir Gudang; (ii) calcium nitrate plant in Shah Alam; and (iii) ammonia bottling plant in Port Klang. It is also a major trading house of industrial and specialty chemicals, representing over 50 leading principals both domestically and in the region.
CCM Chemical is the leading supplier of water treatment solutions to the municipal and industrial waste water sectors in the country. Malaysia remains its main market but revenue contribution from exports or sales outside Malaysia have gradually grown to about 30% from 23% in 2005. CCM aims to increase export contribution to 40% of revenue in the next few years as it expands its regional networks from present Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines.
CCM acquired 97.1% of Enersave Water Sdn Bhd (Enersave) in April 2008 for MYR32.3 mln to strengthen its presence in the watercare business and expand its offering of watercare solution to include physical water treatment technology in the clean water and wastewater sectors. Enersave designs, installs and provides maintenance services for water purification and wastewater treatment systems primarily for the oil and gas, microelectonics and utilities sectors.
Pharmaceuticals
CCM, via its wholly-owned subsidiary CCM Pharmaceutical Sdn Bhd, is the largest manufacturer of generic drugs in Malaysia and is the leading player in the over-the-counter pharmaceutical market in Malaysia. CCM Pharmaceutical has over 280 products in its portfolio, including antihistamines, antibiotics and expectorants.
CCM expanded its pharmaceutical division further when its other whollyowned unit, CCM Pharma Sdn Bhd acquired the brands and assets of Malayan Pharmaceutical Sdn Bhd for MYR22 mln in March 2007. The move brought several and established brands under CCM’s wing and is expected to strengthen its leading position going forward. CCM has three manufacturing facilities located in Bangi, Petaling Jaya and Subang Jaya. The Bangi facility focuses on producing oral solid dosage products while the Petaling Jaya and Subang Jaya plants concentrate on complex products and cephalosporin, respectively. The facilities in Bangi were recently expanded (at a cost of MYR50 mln), which doubled its capacity to 1.0 bln tablets annually.
CCM also owns 73.7% of CCM Duopharma Biotech (Duopharma) (CCMD MK, MYR2.48, Not Ranked), which was acquired in October 2005. Duopharma is a leading manufacturer of small volume injectables (SVI), which is a premium pharmaceutical product, and has a growing herbal pharmaceutical business.
Duopharma’s manufacturing facility in Klang produces liquid for the treatment of haemodialysis, as well as tablets, capsules and ampoules for SVI. It plans to spend MYR75 mln to expand its manufacturing and warehousing facilities. Upon completion in 2009, it expects to double the plant’s manufacturing capacity to 1.5 bln tablets, capsules and ampoules for SVI and more than one mln liters of liquids for the treatment of haemodialysis. Duopharma derives over 90% of its revenue from domestic clients, which include the government, the over-the-counter market and private hospitals.
CCM’s pharmaceutical division exports its products to over 20 countries, with Singapore and Hong Kong being the two largest markets. CCM is looking to penetrate new markets, such as the Middle East and Africa to grow the export contributions to the pharmaceutical division’s revenue from less than 10%, presently.
Earnings Outlook
CCM’s recurring net profit grew 22% YoY in 2007 (2006 results included a gain of MYR62.7 mln from sale of investments while 2007 profit included a MYR12.3 mln gain from the revaluation of property and sale of land). Leading the growth was the fertilizers division, which saw a 35.1% YoY growth in revenue and an improvement in pre-tax margins to 4.8% from 2.4% in 2006. This was due to increased fertilizer prices arising from the tighter global supply/demand for fertilizers. Higher bulk trading of straight fertilizers in the ASEAN markets also contributed to the growth. The fertilizers division’s contribution to group pre-tax profit rose to 33.1% in 2007 from less than 10% in 2006.
Pre-tax profit for the pharmaceutical segment increased 12.6% YoY driven by the expansion of the over-the-counter pharmaceutical market (helped by the inclusion of Malayan Pharmaceutical’s products) and increased sales to the government sector. The chemical segment, on the other hand, recorded a 29.4% YoY drop in pre-tax profit despite registering 22.9% YoY rise in revenue due to the entry of cheaper imports, which eroded prices and squeezed profitability.
We forecast a two-year net profit CAGR of 19.5% to 2009 for CCM, driven by the expansion of the fertilizer division and the growth in the pharmaceutical segment.
The government’s focus on the agriculture sector under the Ninth Malaysian Plan as well as the expansion of oil palm plantations in Sabah, Sarawak and Indonesia augurs well for CCM’s fertilizers division. The high prices of agricultural commodities, which are expected to sustain in view of the tight supply/demand situations for almost all agricultural commodities, will also support the growth in demand for fertilizer to boost crop output. For CCM, 2008 will see the full-year impact of the price hike and maiden contribution from the fertilizer plant in Bintulu. The full-year impact of the capacity in Bintulu and the commencement of the plant in Medan will support the growth for 2009. We also expect greater plant efficiency after the conversion of the plant in Shah Alam in 4Q08 with the impact to be felt in 2009.
The Malaysian pharmaceutical industry is estimated to have expanded by 12% in 2007, with the generic market registering a 16% growth. Going forward, the generic market is expected to see a stronger growth given a large number of patents expiring worldwide. Given that locally manufactured pharmaceuticals account for an estimated 20%-30% of the market, there is good potential ahead for local players to increase their market share. As the largest over-the-counter player domestically and with the expansion of its manufacturing facilities, CCM is in a favorable position to benefit from the projected growth for the industry.
Nonetheless, we expect some pressure on operating margin for the pharmaceutical segment due to the increasing cost of regulatory compliance in the pharmaceutical segment and rising competition from imported generic products.
The demand outlook for the chemical division is relatively stable, in our opinion, given the constant need for a clean source of water supply. However, competition from cheap imports continues to be a concern and may continue to squeeze margins for the division. CCM is enhancing its competitiveness by increasing the specialty content of its chemical product portfolio via its recent acquisitions of Enersave.
Valuation
At 16x 2008 earnings, the stock trades at a premium to the market but we believe this is supported by its double-digit net profit growth. The valuation is also within the range of multiples of between 14x and 20x for the stock over the past two years.
We continue to value CCM at a 16x PER and assign the multiple to our projected earnings for 2009 and arrive at our 12-month target price for the stock of MYR3.10.
We expect CCM to be able to maintain a dividend payment of 16 sen per share in 2008, yielding a decent 5.8% at the current share price.
Recent Developments
April 2008: CCM completed the acquisition of 97.1% stake in Enersave Water Sdn Bhd for MYR38.28 mln.
April 2008: CCM entered into a conditional shares sale agreement to acquire 100% of Innovative Polymer Systems Sdn Bhd, 100% of Innovative Resins Sdn Bhd and 100% of Delta Polymers Systems Sdn Bhd for MYR126.9 mln cash from Paramount Discovery Sdn Bhd. The acquisition is in line with CCM’s business strategy of increasing the specialty content of its chemical product portfolio.
肥料领域的49%股权落入LTH手中，和大股东有协同作用吗？另一个问题是你只有51%，成长率都要减半。
CI RESOURCE的磷肥供应影响很小。
从akn买来的公司，是做手套方案的，有协同作用吗？
超过15倍本益比很贵，原因只是GLC，没有其他原因。
Sector: Industrial Products
GICS: Materials/Diversified Chemicals
Market Value - Total: MYR1,119.2 mln
Summary: Chemical Company of Malaysia (CCM) is the largest manufacturer of compound fertilizers and generic drugs in Malaysia, and a leading producer of industrial and specialty chemicals.
Analyst: Siti Rudziah Salikin
recommendation: hold TP RM3.10
price RM2.78
Date: July 8, 2008
Highlights
The expansion of its fertilizer capacity will make CCM the largest compound fertilizer manufacturer in the region. The fertilizer division is well-positioned to capitalize on the high prices of agricultural commodities, which will drive the demand growth for fertilizer to boost crop output.
The growth prospect for the pharmaceutical segment is promising in our opinion, in view of rising healthcare spending and the expected rise in generic substitutes. As the largest manufacturer of generic drugs in the country, CCM is in a favorable position to benefit from the projected growth for the industry.
We also view positively CCM’s efforts to expand its water care solution to include physical water treatment technology to its present chemical treatment. This will help CCM to weather the current price competition from cheaper imports of industrial chemicals.
We forecast a two-year net profit CAGR of 19.5% for CCM driven by the expansion of the fertilizer division and the growth in the pharmaceutical segment.
Investment Risks
Risks to our recommendation and target price include a reversal in the commodity price uptrend which may reduce the demand for fertilizers. A continued increase in raw material prices and stronger competition from cheaper imports will also put a pressure on margins for the pharmaceuticals and chemicals divisions.
Recommendation
We initiate coverage on CCM with a Hold call and a 12-month target price of MYR3.10.
CCM offers indirect exposure to the buoyant agricultural commodity sector through its expanding fertilizer division and the growing pharmaceutical sector in the country. The stock also gives a decent dividend yield of 5.8%.
At 16x 2008 earnings, the stock trades at a premium to the market’s PER but we believe this is supported by our projected double-digit earnings growth. The valuation is also within the range of multiples of between 14x and 20x for the stock over the past two years.
We continue to value CCM at 16x PER and assign the multiple to our projected earnings for 2009 to arrive at our 12-month target price.
In its 2007 annual report, the company detailed its commitment to the framework on Corporate Social Responsibility. Its social contributions included pharmaceutical donations to the Johor flood victims in 2007 and personal first aid kit donations to Malaysian pilgrims on their Haj under the “Sahabat Korporat Tabung Haji’ programme. CCM also collaborated with Yayasan Jantung Malaysia and the National Diabetes Institute to promote greater public awareness on health issues.
Background
CCM is the largest manufacturer of compound fertilizers and generic drugs in Malaysia, and a leading producer of industrial and specialty chemicals. Listed on the Main Board of Bursa Malaysia in 1966, CCM was part of the UK-based ICI Group, prior to a management buyout in November 1994. Permodalan Nasional Berhad (PNB) became CCM’s controlling shareholder in January 2005. Currently, PNB has 13.7% direct stake in CCM and a 45.9% indirect stake via Skim Amanah Saham Bumiputera. Tan Sri Ab. Rahman bin Omar is the Chairman of CCM and Dato’ Dr. Mohamad Hashim bin Ahmad Tajudin is the Group Managing Director.
CCM’s businesses are divided into three main segments, namely: (i) fertilizers; (ii) chemicals; and (iii) pharmaceuticals. The fertilizers division was the largest revenue contributor in 2007, accounting for 48.2% of total revenue. In terms of profit contribution, the pharmaceuticals segment took the lead, accounting for 53.3% of group pre-tax profit for 2007 with the fertilizers division contributing 33.1%.
Fertilizers
CCM opened Malaysia’s first compound fertilizer plant in Shah Alam in 1967 and is today the largest producer of compound fertilizers in Malaysia with an estimated 30% market share. CCM’s fertilizers are sold under the Cock Head brand, which has an established presence in the region. CCM also trades a wide range of other straight and mixed fertilizers. Its customers generally represent those in the oil palm plantation and cash crops industries. About 60% of sales go to the domestic plantation companies and 30% to domestic small holders. The remaining 10% are exported to the countries in the region.
The expansion of oil palm plantations and the current high prices of agricultural commodities have boosted the demand for and tightened the supply of fertilizers in the country. CCM’s plant in Shah Alam is operating at full capacity of 280,000 tons per year. CCM is investing MYR150 mln in three new fertilizer plants, which will gradually expand its production capacity to 670,000 tons by 2010. The construction of the first plant in Bintulu, Sarawak is expected to start operations by July 2008. The other two plants will be located in Lahad Datu, Sabah and in Medan, Indonesia. The new plants will place CCM closer to its markets, thus reducing the delivery costs. In the meantime, CCM is importing fertilizers as well as contracting out some of the manufacturing to third parties to fulfil the current demand from its customers.
CCM is also converting its existing fertilizer plant in Shah Alam into a safer and lower cost urea-based steam granulation plant from the current ammonia-based NPK Compound Plant. With the conversion, which is expected to take place in 4Q08, CCM expects to reduce its plant maintenance and servicing costs. At the same time, the logistics and handling expenses relating to liquid ammonia, which is currently imported, will be eliminated. CCM plans to spend MYR25 mln for the conversion and will write off MYR15.4 mln in net book value of the fixed assets and spare parts of the current nitric acid plant.
Prices of the main raw materials, such as ammonium sulfate, nitrogen dioxide, potassium and phosphate, have been on the rise. However, due to the strong demand for fertilizers, CCM has been able to pass on the cost increases to its customers through price hikes (the price of compound fertilizers was raised by 15% in September 2007). CCM also indirectly owns a stake in its phosphate supplier, Phosphate Resources Ltd, which operates the largest phosphate mine in Australia. In September 2006, CCM acquired a 16% stake in Perth-based CI Resources Ltd, which holds 39.1% of Phosphate Resources. The strategic ownership helps to ensure an uninterrupted and cost-competitive supply of phosphates to CCM.
Chemicals CCM’s chemical division, which is grouped under CCM Chemical Sdn Bhd, produces various chemical products at its three manufacturing and repacking facilities: (i) chlor-alkali and coagulants plants in Pasir Gudang; (ii) calcium nitrate plant in Shah Alam; and (iii) ammonia bottling plant in Port Klang. It is also a major trading house of industrial and specialty chemicals, representing over 50 leading principals both domestically and in the region.
CCM Chemical is the leading supplier of water treatment solutions to the municipal and industrial waste water sectors in the country. Malaysia remains its main market but revenue contribution from exports or sales outside Malaysia have gradually grown to about 30% from 23% in 2005. CCM aims to increase export contribution to 40% of revenue in the next few years as it expands its regional networks from present Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines.
CCM acquired 97.1% of Enersave Water Sdn Bhd (Enersave) in April 2008 for MYR32.3 mln to strengthen its presence in the watercare business and expand its offering of watercare solution to include physical water treatment technology in the clean water and wastewater sectors. Enersave designs, installs and provides maintenance services for water purification and wastewater treatment systems primarily for the oil and gas, microelectonics and utilities sectors.
Pharmaceuticals
CCM, via its wholly-owned subsidiary CCM Pharmaceutical Sdn Bhd, is the largest manufacturer of generic drugs in Malaysia and is the leading player in the over-the-counter pharmaceutical market in Malaysia. CCM Pharmaceutical has over 280 products in its portfolio, including antihistamines, antibiotics and expectorants.
CCM expanded its pharmaceutical division further when its other whollyowned unit, CCM Pharma Sdn Bhd acquired the brands and assets of Malayan Pharmaceutical Sdn Bhd for MYR22 mln in March 2007. The move brought several and established brands under CCM’s wing and is expected to strengthen its leading position going forward. CCM has three manufacturing facilities located in Bangi, Petaling Jaya and Subang Jaya. The Bangi facility focuses on producing oral solid dosage products while the Petaling Jaya and Subang Jaya plants concentrate on complex products and cephalosporin, respectively. The facilities in Bangi were recently expanded (at a cost of MYR50 mln), which doubled its capacity to 1.0 bln tablets annually.
CCM also owns 73.7% of CCM Duopharma Biotech (Duopharma) (CCMD MK, MYR2.48, Not Ranked), which was acquired in October 2005. Duopharma is a leading manufacturer of small volume injectables (SVI), which is a premium pharmaceutical product, and has a growing herbal pharmaceutical business.
Duopharma’s manufacturing facility in Klang produces liquid for the treatment of haemodialysis, as well as tablets, capsules and ampoules for SVI. It plans to spend MYR75 mln to expand its manufacturing and warehousing facilities. Upon completion in 2009, it expects to double the plant’s manufacturing capacity to 1.5 bln tablets, capsules and ampoules for SVI and more than one mln liters of liquids for the treatment of haemodialysis. Duopharma derives over 90% of its revenue from domestic clients, which include the government, the over-the-counter market and private hospitals.
CCM’s pharmaceutical division exports its products to over 20 countries, with Singapore and Hong Kong being the two largest markets. CCM is looking to penetrate new markets, such as the Middle East and Africa to grow the export contributions to the pharmaceutical division’s revenue from less than 10%, presently.
Earnings Outlook
CCM’s recurring net profit grew 22% YoY in 2007 (2006 results included a gain of MYR62.7 mln from sale of investments while 2007 profit included a MYR12.3 mln gain from the revaluation of property and sale of land). Leading the growth was the fertilizers division, which saw a 35.1% YoY growth in revenue and an improvement in pre-tax margins to 4.8% from 2.4% in 2006. This was due to increased fertilizer prices arising from the tighter global supply/demand for fertilizers. Higher bulk trading of straight fertilizers in the ASEAN markets also contributed to the growth. The fertilizers division’s contribution to group pre-tax profit rose to 33.1% in 2007 from less than 10% in 2006.
Pre-tax profit for the pharmaceutical segment increased 12.6% YoY driven by the expansion of the over-the-counter pharmaceutical market (helped by the inclusion of Malayan Pharmaceutical’s products) and increased sales to the government sector. The chemical segment, on the other hand, recorded a 29.4% YoY drop in pre-tax profit despite registering 22.9% YoY rise in revenue due to the entry of cheaper imports, which eroded prices and squeezed profitability.
We forecast a two-year net profit CAGR of 19.5% to 2009 for CCM, driven by the expansion of the fertilizer division and the growth in the pharmaceutical segment.
The government’s focus on the agriculture sector under the Ninth Malaysian Plan as well as the expansion of oil palm plantations in Sabah, Sarawak and Indonesia augurs well for CCM’s fertilizers division. The high prices of agricultural commodities, which are expected to sustain in view of the tight supply/demand situations for almost all agricultural commodities, will also support the growth in demand for fertilizer to boost crop output. For CCM, 2008 will see the full-year impact of the price hike and maiden contribution from the fertilizer plant in Bintulu. The full-year impact of the capacity in Bintulu and the commencement of the plant in Medan will support the growth for 2009. We also expect greater plant efficiency after the conversion of the plant in Shah Alam in 4Q08 with the impact to be felt in 2009.
The Malaysian pharmaceutical industry is estimated to have expanded by 12% in 2007, with the generic market registering a 16% growth. Going forward, the generic market is expected to see a stronger growth given a large number of patents expiring worldwide. Given that locally manufactured pharmaceuticals account for an estimated 20%-30% of the market, there is good potential ahead for local players to increase their market share. As the largest over-the-counter player domestically and with the expansion of its manufacturing facilities, CCM is in a favorable position to benefit from the projected growth for the industry.
Nonetheless, we expect some pressure on operating margin for the pharmaceutical segment due to the increasing cost of regulatory compliance in the pharmaceutical segment and rising competition from imported generic products.
The demand outlook for the chemical division is relatively stable, in our opinion, given the constant need for a clean source of water supply. However, competition from cheap imports continues to be a concern and may continue to squeeze margins for the division. CCM is enhancing its competitiveness by increasing the specialty content of its chemical product portfolio via its recent acquisitions of Enersave.
Valuation
At 16x 2008 earnings, the stock trades at a premium to the market but we believe this is supported by its double-digit net profit growth. The valuation is also within the range of multiples of between 14x and 20x for the stock over the past two years.
We continue to value CCM at a 16x PER and assign the multiple to our projected earnings for 2009 and arrive at our 12-month target price for the stock of MYR3.10.
We expect CCM to be able to maintain a dividend payment of 16 sen per share in 2008, yielding a decent 5.8% at the current share price.
Recent Developments
April 2008: CCM completed the acquisition of 97.1% stake in Enersave Water Sdn Bhd for MYR38.28 mln.
April 2008: CCM entered into a conditional shares sale agreement to acquire 100% of Innovative Polymer Systems Sdn Bhd, 100% of Innovative Resins Sdn Bhd and 100% of Delta Polymers Systems Sdn Bhd for MYR126.9 mln cash from Paramount Discovery Sdn Bhd. The acquisition is in line with CCM’s business strategy of increasing the specialty content of its chemical product portfolio.
肥料领域的49%股权落入LTH手中，和大股东有协同作用吗？另一个问题是你只有51%，成长率都要减半。
CI RESOURCE的磷肥供应影响很小。
从akn买来的公司，是做手套方案的，有协同作用吗？
超过15倍本益比很贵，原因只是GLC，没有其他原因。
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