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2016年3月5日星期六

DIALOG–Fundamental Analysis (18 Nov 2015)


Latest Financial – Q1 2016 Financial Report (17 Nov 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4922597
FY16 Q1 Results Highlight:
  • Net profit increased to RM60.07 million or 1.18 sen a share in the three months ended Sept 30, 2015 (1QFY16) from RM49.91 million or 1.02 sen a share a year ago, mainly due to higher fabrication activities in New Zealand and better margins on sales of specialist products and services, which are mostly denominated in US dollar.
  • Revenue for 1QFY16 was slightly lower at RM536.37 million from RM541.55 million in 1QFY15, on lower revenue from its international operation.
  • However, revenue from its Malaysian operation for 1QFY16 was higher, mainly contributed by the engineering and construction activities from ongoing projects, said Dialog.
  • The works on Phase 2 of the Pengerang Deepwater Terminal (in Johor) are progressing as schedule. In addition, the group is also involved in various projects such as the MLNG Train 9 and SAMUR piping works. However, the higher revenue recorded from these activities was offset by lower sales in specialist products and services and upstream activities.
  • There is a one-time transaction: Gain of RM1,949,000 from disposal of one subsidiary
Valuation:
  • Absolute EY%:
    • Trailing:
      • FY15 (EPS: 0.054) – 1.770 (Uncertainty Risk: HIGH)
      • R4Q (EPS: 0.055) – 1.812 (Uncertainty Risk: HIGH)
    • Forward:
      • FY16 (EPS: 0.056 ± 5%) – From 1.756 to 1.941 (Uncertainty Risk: MEDIUM to HIGH)
      • FY17 (EPS: 0.062 ± 5%) – From 1.936 to 2.139 (Uncertainty Risk: MEDIUM)
    • EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.64): 0.050
  • In my opinion, fair value of DIALOG range from 1.7 to 2.1. Uncertainty risk of fair value is from MEDIUM to HIGH.
Going Forward:
  • On prospects, Dialog said the drop in oil prices will lower the overall costs of processing, manufacturing and production of a wide range of petroleum and petrochemical products. This would have a positive impact on the midstream and downstream sectors of the oil and gas industry.
  • Phase 1 of the Pengerang Deepwater Terminal is in full operation with 1.3 million cu m fully leased out.
  • Phase 2 will have 2.1 million cu m of storage capacity, with a total investment cost of RM6.3 billion and is scheduled to be completed progressively in 2018 and 2019.
  • Valuations may not very compelling, but not bad. DIALOG still appeals to funds seeking earnings stability
  • I will continue to hold and accumulate this counter.
At the time of writing, I owned shares of DIALOG.

2014年4月15日星期二

Dialog

Finance Focus 财经焦点 - 15/04/2014
大市点评
美国股市午盘反弹,将3大指数推升。DJIA升0.91%,SnP 500升0.82%,Nasdaq升0.57%。另外欧洲股市先跌后升,富时100指数升0.34%。马股昨天在窄幅震荡后收在1851.53点,微跌 1.13点,成交量20.2亿股,总值20.5亿马币,上升股396支,下跌股454支。技术上指数继续守在1850点支撑上横摆盘整,等待选择方向。
-----------------
Announcement:
Highlights:
1. BARAKAH --- Bags Offshore Pipeline Contract from PUNCAK ---
2. TENAGA --- Signs PPA with 1MDB Solar Sdn Bhd ---
3. E&O --- DEIA Approved for Seri Tanjung Pinang 2 ---
4. DIALOG --- Commencement of Phase 1A Pengerang Terminal ---
5. MRCB --- Buy Lands from Subsidiary for Proposed RM559mil Project ---
6. EDUSPEC --- Incorporate of New Subsidiary ---
7. MAA --- Takes Over PTKSB Due to Borrower Loan Default ---
---------------------
1. BARAKAH --- Bags Offshore Pipeline Contract from PUNCAK ---
BARAKAH's wholly-owned subsidiary company, PBJV Group Sdn Bhd, has received a letter of award from GOM Resources Sdn Bhd (wholly owned subsidiary of PUNCAK) for the provision of pre-commissioning services for 28” x 282km pipeline from onshore Kerteh Terengganu towards the border of Malaysia/Thailand Joint Development Area (“Contract”). Work for the Contract is expected to commence in Third Quarter for the financial year ending 31 December 2014 and is expected to be completed by First Quarter for the financial year ending 31 December 2015. [Bursa]
2. TENAGA --- Signs PPA with 1MDB Solar Sdn Bhd ---
on April 12, 2014 signed a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with 1MDB SOLAR SDN. BHD. (1MDB). The PPA provides that 1MDB will design, construct, own, operate and maintain a solar photovoltaic energy (Solar PV) generating facility with a capacity of 50 megawatts alternate current (MWac) proposed to be located in Kedah Darul Aman. The PPA is in relation to the pilot project for 50 MWac Solar PV, which forms part of the initiative to support the national agenda for the development of renewable energy in Malaysia. The PPA governs the obligations of the parties to sell and purchase the Net Electrical Output generated by the facility for a period of not more than 25 years, in accordance with the agreed terms and conditions. [Bursa]
3. E&O --- DEIA Approved for Seri Tanjung Pinang 2 ---
The group received the conditional approval letter dated 10 April 2014 from the Department of Environment, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (DOE) for the Detailed Environment Impact Assessment (DEIA) study and conceptual masterplan submitted by TPD for the proposed reclamation of Phase 2 of Seri Tanjung Pinang at Tanjung Tokong, Penang. [Bursa]
4. DIALOG --- Commencement of Phase 1A Pengerang Terminal ---
is pleased to announce that Phase 1A of Pengerang Terminal in Pengerang, Johor, southeastern Peninsular Malaysia has been successfully completed and has commenced operations. Pengerang Terminal received its first shipment from a reputable international oil trader on 12 April 2014. With the completion of Phase 1A, Phase 1 of Pengerang Terminal is progressing well with the construction of the other phases on schedule for completion by end of 2014. Phase 1’s development covers 150 acres of reclaimed sea-bed land with initial storage capacity of approximately 1.3 million cbm for together with six berths, at a cost of RM2.0 billion. [Bursa]
5. MRCB --- Buy Lands from Subsidiary for Proposed RM559mil Project ---
Entered into a Sale and Purchase Agreement with Bisraya Acres Sdn Bhd to acquire 3 parcels of land measuring 617,452 sq. ft. located in Bukit Rahman Putra, Sungai Buloh for a total cash consideration of RM83.0 million. The lands to be acquired will be developed based on their respective existing land use category namely 2 parcels for residential development and 1 parcel for commercial development, with an estimated total gross development value (GDV) of approximately RM559.1 million.
The total development cost is budgeted at RM441.8 million and the expected profits to be derived from the said development is about RM117.3 million or 21% of the GDV. The
development cost is expected to be financed via a combination of internally generated funds and/or external borrowings. Construction of the proposed residential development on the 5.52 acres is expected to commence in the first quarter of 2015. This will be followed by the commercial development, a year later and the residential development on the 4.12 acres in 2017. All three proposed developments are expected to be completed in 3 years’ time from their respective development commencement dates. The relevant approvals have yet to be obtained for all the proposed developments. [Bursa]
6. EDUSPEC --- Incorporate of New Subsidiary ---
The company had received the Certificate of Incorporation dated 11 April 2014 issued by the Accounting and Corporate Regulatory Authority (ACRA) for the establishment of Eduspec ACG Pte. Ltd. (Eduspec ACG) in Singapore. The principal activities of Eduspec ACG are educating people in Animation, Comics and Games Creation by engaging in a structured, fun and easy way. This is delivered through innovative courses which teach students to be able to communicate more creatively and cultivate the ability to look at things from different angles, giving them a more lateral approach to life. Eduspec ACG will also organize annual competitions for students to participate and learn from and with their peers, nurturing a positive competitiveness nature in them. [Bursa]
7. MAA --- Takes Over PTKSB Due to Borrower Loan Default ---
MAA Corporation Sdn Bhd being a wholly-owned subsidiary company of MAA, entered into a share sale agreement with AEC College Pte Ltd (Vendoe) for the acquisition of a 30% interest in Pusat Tiusyen Kasturi Sdn Bhd (PTKSB) and Keris Murni Sdn Bhd from the Vendor for a total cash consideration of RM1,600,000.00. The acquisition is pursuant to the exercise of its power of attorney and forming part of the debt recovery action taken after its borrower had defaulted in its loan due to MAA Credit Berhad. [Bursa]
赞 · ·

2014年2月12日星期三

DIALOG

油(24):戴乐集团【】,穿金『戴』银(2)

边佳兰独立深水石油终站:Pengerang Independent Deep Water Terminal,PDWT

Capital dredging:基建性疏浚
Economic Corridors Development:经济走廊发展计划
Economic Transformation Programme,ETP:经济转型计划
Entry Point Projects,EPP:先行计划
Flagship Zone:旗舰区
Iskandar Development Region,IDR:依斯干达经济特区
Iskandar Malaysia,IM:依斯干达
Johor Port:柔佛港
National Key Economic Areas,NKEA:国家关键经济领域
Pengerang:边加兰
Regional Oil Storage and Trading Hub:区域性油库及贸易枢纽
Tanjung Ayam:丹绒亚央
Tanjung Kapal :丹绒卡帕尔
Turning basin:迴船池


阿都拉担任马来西亚首相中期,在全国推展了一系列的大规模特区发展,被称为经济走廊发展计划,坐落在柔佛南部的计划初期称为柔南经济特区【Wilayah Pembangunan Iskandar,,WPI】,过后易名依斯干达经济特区,最后正式定名马来西亚依斯干达。
马来西亚依斯干达占地221,634公顷,并分成五个旗舰区,其中包括:

(A)新山综合都市
(B)努沙再也医疗城
(C)西部入口发展区
(D)东部入口发展区
(E)士乃-士古来货运中心
在原本规划中,东部入口发展区(丹绒伯勒巴斯,Tanjung Pelepas)和西部入口发展区(丹戎浪沙,Tanjung Langsat)被规划成油品生产区兼海港,前者以石油化学工业为主,而后者则是生物燃料工业,当时边佳兰并未纳入整套发展计划中。
2008年的国际金融危机迫使马来西亚政府立即采取稳定经济的措施,其中包括 注入50亿令吉稳定股市,降低银行利息,扩大财政赤字,实施总值达70亿令吉的一揽子刺激经济增长计划,以及免除钢铁、水泥关税和动用15亿令吉吸引外资等。

2009年,国际金融危机影响日益扩大,外部需求持续下降,出口导向型的电子电器部门是危机影响的重灾区。

2009年第一季度马来西亚经济增长率为-6.2%,出现自1998年以来的最大跌幅。

2009年马来西亚也爆发外资出逃潮,全年马来西亚引进的外国直接投资大幅下降了81.1%,降幅居东南亚各国之首。

因此,在新的国内外经济形势下,马来西亚原有的经济发展模式亟待调整。

直至2010年9月份,纳吉接任马来西亚首相,新官上任三把火,纳吉推出了一套称为经济转型计划的经济计划。
政府希望通过经济转型计划,让大马在2020年转型为高收入国,即国民年均收入将从2009年的6千700美元或2万3千700令吉,提高至2020年的1万5千美元或4万8千令吉,促使国家达到高收入国的薪金水平。

只要我国每年取得国家年均收入6%的增长,我们就可以达到2020宏愿下所设定的目标。

政府将采取全新的方案推行经济转型计划,注重发展特定的经济成长支柱,即12个国家关键经济领域包括:

1。石油、天然气及能源、
2。棕油、
3。金融服务、
4。旅游
5。商业服务、
6。电子及电器、
7。批发及零售、
8。教育、
9。保健、
10。通讯内容及建设、
11。农业
12。大吉隆坡。



十二项国家关键经济领域,其中第六项是石油、天然气和能源。
2011年5月,首相纳吉在布城宣布经济转型计划下的第三批先行计划,一口气公布了19项现行计划,涉及投资额高达670亿元,估计可从中创造360亿元的国民总收入,以及3万5000个新工作机会。

自2010年10月份正式推出经济转型计划以来,政府在2010年杪已先后宣布18项先行计划。

这19项先行计划和发展计划将来自十个国家关键经济领域,主要由石油,天然气与能源领域下的四项先行计划领航。

这四项来自石油,天然气与能源领域下的先行计划,估计涉及超过200亿元的投资额。

其中,马来西亚埃克森美孚公司【ExxonMobil Malaysia】与国家石油子公司——国油勘探【Petronas Carigali】将会联手投资总值马币100亿元的资金兴建新的石油与天然气资产,以确保马来西亚具备稳定与可靠的能源供应。
此外,马来西亚蚬壳公司【Shell Malaysia】也计划作出51亿元的投资,来提升与兴建石油与天然气领域的上游、中游以及下游领域的设施。

这些设施包括在砂拉越民都鲁设立MDS【Middle Distillate Synthesis】技术厂房、位于森美兰州波得申的柴油提炼单位,以及沙巴州Gemusut岸外深水油田发展计划。
至于核能发展方面,政府正在研究这项能源,对应付未来需求与多元化能源供应管道的可行性。对此,政府宣布成立马来西亚核能机构【Malaysia Nuclear Power Corporation】,并委任莫哈末占占【Mohd Zamzam Jaafar】成为该机构的行政总裁。
同时,以戴乐集团【DIALOG,7277,主要板贸易】为首的财团,也将会在柔佛州发展一个独立的深水石油终站计划,名为 - 国油提炼及石油化学综合发展【 RAPID 】。
戴乐集团获权启动开发工程,以在边佳兰的丹绒亚央与丹绒卡帕尔之间的岸外及海床投250 亿令吉·承建石油终站。

上述终站将拥有港口、码头及其他的海洋设施,包括水深 26 公尺,可让大型船舰停泊,进行原油、石油、石油化学及化学产品的储存、处理及分销工作。

在持有独立深海石油终站后,戴乐集团可增加未来的持续性收益,并与在登嘉楼及柔佛的油槽设施起辅助作用。

这项石油终站计划的产能容积估计达500万立方尺,协助我国崛起成为区域石油库存中心。

这项计划估计在2020年之际,可以创造16亿元的国民总收入。

每天将能提炼 30 万桶原油,生产汽油、航空燃油及柴油等石油产品,以应付国內日益增长的需求,同时开拓出口机会,输出 Euro4 及 Euro5 规格的燃油。

国油也将和世界级的化学公司合作,展开“联合石油化学发展计划”,利用轻油裂解厂生产的原料,每年能生产 300 万吨的高度专业化及中级石油化学产品。

计划选在柔佛进行,是为了利用该区的地理优势,包括宽大的土地面积、位于接近国际主要航线的策略性位置、海港设施及靠近需求中心,同时能在物流与产品分销方面促成与国际伙伴的合作。


RAPID计划能为石油及天然气领域制造 4000 个高技术员工就业机会,为新生代的技术专才提供加强技术与能力的平台;在计划的动工阶段,预料能制造 2 万个就业机会。
边佳兰深水石油总站点滴:
1. 总投资额料达 50 亿令吉【20.6 亿新元】
2. 柔佛东南划出 2500 公顷土地充作计划发展用途
3. 产能容积估计达500万立方尺
4. 成为亚洲最大的石油贸易及存储中心之一
油系列:
油(1):近海工程,『油』光晶亮 
油(2):柏力赛石油【PERISAI】,松『柏』之茂
油(3):丹绒岸外【TGOFFS】,『丹』心如故 
油(4):国油气体【PETGAS】,打造马来西亚首个液化天然气【LNG】再气化终站 
油(5):Gas What,大马气体【GAS MALAYSIA】 
油(6):SILK控股【SILKHLD】,大{盗}变船王 
油(7):云升控股【YINSON】,坐看『云』起时 
油(9):合顺油气【UMWOG】,『顺』利上市 
油(10):迪联集团【DELEUM】,珠璧『联』辉 
油(11):乌兹马【UZMA】,『马』上有油?  
油(12):睦兴旺工程【MUHIBAH】,运『旺』时盛(2) 
油(13):世界海事【ALAM】,海中遨游(2) 
油(15):史格米能源【SCOMIES】,量『能』授官
油(16):东洋工程【SAMUDRA】,杀鸡取卵 
油(17):沿海工程【COASTAL】,『沿』波讨源 
油(18):华商控股【WASEONG】,『商』机无处 
油(19):达洋企业【DAYANG】,以权『达』变 (2) 
油(20):必达能源【PENERGY】,有其兄『必』有其弟
油(21):辉高【FAVCO】,高高在上 
油(22):必多第一【PETONE】,一洗霉运? 
油(23):同益岸外【TAS】,与船『同』乐