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2016年5月16日星期一

Why SAM? Order book of RM3Billions and pure cash company (RM103Millions)- (TP:RM10.95)




Author: itjustabouttheprofit | Publish date: Sat, 20 Jun 2015, 05:31 AM









EPS estimation : 18.25 x 4 =73sen

PE ratio : 15 (higher PE ratio due to stable

income in the next 5 year, pure cash

company with no debt and high dividend

yield)

Target price : RM10.95 (might be more in

long term)





I am here to ANSWER a simple question. Why

SAM?



1) Strong order books of RM3billions keep the

company busy until 2026

2) Management determination - Become global

player with annual revenue more than

RM1billions

3) Strong balance sheet -RM103millions cash

with zero borrowing, dividend yield of 4.14%

4) Reputable customers, GE Aviation. subsidiary

of General Electric, which is listed company

in Dow Jones index









Introduction

On 27 September 2012, SAM Engineering &

Equipment (M) Berhad have completed the

acquisition of the entire issued and paid-up

capital for Avitron Pte Ltd from Singapore

Aerospace Manufacturing Pte Ltd for

RM135millions.



After the acquisition, it began the new chapter

for SAM Engineering in aerospace industries.



There are three main business involvement:

a) Aerospace (69% of total revenue)



b) Equipment Manufacturing (24% of total

revenue)



c) Precision Engineering (7% of total revenue)



According to annual report 2014, Temasek

Holdings (Private) Limited (investment company

for Singapore government) owned 74.18% of

indirect interest in SAM Engineering & Equipment

(M) Berhad.







1) Strong order books of RM3billions keep the

company busy until 2026



http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/09/08/SAM-plans-to-grow-via-additional-investments-and-acquisitions/?style=biz

From the Star report as at 8 September 2014, the company already have RM2billions orderbook on September 2014.







http://www.sam-malaysia.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Latest-News_17-June-2015.pdf

http://www.sam-malaysia.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Latest-News_26-May-2015.pdf

Refer to the link above, Avitron Pte Ltd, wholly-owned subsidiaries of the company have receivedRM450millions contracts from GE Aviation on 26 May 2015 and RM900millions contracts fromGE Aviation on 17 June 2015. These brought the company currently stood at RM3billions order book.

Calculations are as follows:
RM'000
Total order book as per Sep 14 2,000,000
Revenue as per 30/09/2014 (112,328)
Revenue as per 31/12/2014 (113,542)
Revenue as per 31/03/2015 (132,493)
New contracts on 26/05/2015 450,000
New contracts on 17/06/2015 900,000
Total order book as per 17/06/2015 2,991,637


The order book of RM3billions will keep the company busy until 2026.





With the RM3billions order book, the company will able to maintain revenue for the latest quarter, which is RM132million for 5 and a half year!!! (5.5 x 4 x 132 = RM2.904billions)







2) Management determination - Become global

player with annual revenue more than

RM1billions



Refer to the annual report 2014, the company management planned to target annual revenue of RM1billions in the next 2 to 3 years. For year 2015 (up to 17/06/2015),the company have received order book of RM1.35billion (as stated above). These marked the management determination toarchieve the target annual revenue of RM1billion, which is 121% inceased in total revenuefrom rolling revenue for the past 4 quarters!! From The Star news above, the management also stated that they are targetting to become the leading player in Asia Pacific in aerospace industry.



3) Strong balance sheet -RM103millions cash

with zero borrowing, dividend yield of 4.14%



As per latest quarterly report, the company held RM103millions of cash and cash equivalents, which is RM1.23 per share!! Other than that, the company have zero bank borrowing and RM79million of trade and other payables. Net assets for the company stood at RM4.46 per share.

Also, the company have declared RM0.1725 per shares of final and special dividends during 2014, which translated to 4.14% of dividend yield. For financial year 2015, the company expected to declare the dividend during July 2015, which is one month from now. As the company's profit grew for current financial year, hence we expected a better dividend payout for this year.







4) Reputable customers, GE Aviation, subsidiary

of General Electric, which is listed company

in Dow Jones index



The main customer of the company, GE Aviation, which is among the top aircraft engine suppliers and offers engines for the majority of commercia aircraft in the world.

GE Aviation is one of the subsidiaries for General Electric Company which is listed in the Dow Jones Index (top 30 largest company in term of market value in US).



https://www.ge.com/sites/default/files/ge_webcast_pressrelease_01232015_1.pdf

According to the quarterly report for General Electric Company. GE Aviation have contributed USD24billions revenue during financial year 2014 for General Electric Company.





5) Strong currency exchange against ringgit lead

to increase in total revenue



As most the contract signed in US dollar (refer to the attachment for the latest contract on 17 June 2015 and 26 May 2015), we expected the total order book will increased (in term of ringgit) as ringgit have been depreciation about 10% to 20% during 2015.



Trade at your own risk!!! Do research before any investment decision!! Happy trading :-)

2016年4月19日星期二

【SAM】:Off Market disposal 9.1m Share



一般上大股東賣股, 給人的一般影響都是對公司前景沒有信心。這次off Market disposal 9.1 million 的股份, 是否又代表了SAM前景不樂觀呢?
先說DISPOSAL的詳情:

                            





Disposal Quantity: 9,100,000 Units
Disposal Unit: SPE
SPE Wholly own by SAM singapore
SAM SINGAPORE Wholly Own by ACCURON
ACCURON Wholly Own by Termasek



Termasek deemed Interest changes 
from: 5,7841,241Unit(68.51%)
To: 48,741,241 Units (56.46%)

Disposal Type: Off Market

我的看法:

投資者不用過度緊張, 有幾件事請要理清,
  1. 9.1m Units 是off Market trade, 那應該不是賣給一般散戶, 那是買給誰?
  2. 9.1m是總股數的9.48%,如果是賣給單一投資者/機構, 那該股東將成為大股東, 按交易所的規定超過5%的大股東必須對股東回報,必須有Annoucement。
  3. 既然是場外交易, 不是在市場賣給散戶, 很明顯的此交易很大可能是建立與welling to buy, welling to sell basic, 對散戶的利益沒有影響。

既然對散戶既得利益沒有影響, 那影響的是什麼?

股權比例





 有跟進SAM的投資者應該不會忘了對SAM而言大家一直以來的一個隱憂就是2017年9月ICULS到期轉換, TERMASEK 的持股會達到106.055m股, 是到時總股數135.167m股的78.46%, 超過了BURSA最低公眾持股25%的最低要求, 到時會面臨下市的下場。

現在買了9.1m之後, 就算2017年轉換后TERMASEK總持股只有71.73%, 公眾持股任然有28.27%, 達到了交易所的最低需求。

也就是說, 一直以來大家擔心的一個問題已經不存在了。

總結

對單單這件事而言, 不覺得是壞事, 不過有需要跟進後續進展,
  1. 這9.1m的股權是賣給誰, 如果是單一投資者, 這幾天一定會有ANNOUNCEMENT.
  2. Termasek 有很大可能會在近期提早轉換ICULS
  3. 如果真的如此, 今年很大可能會派特別股息
最近其實很不捨的出手了近20%的SAM, 原因不是SAM現在面臨的美金匯率和產能停滯問題, 而是加碼了另外一只讓我流口水又苦於投資資金不足的公司。。。

至於是那家公司, 有時間繼續和大家分享。。。

預知後事如何, 請待下回分曉!

2015年8月2日星期日

SAM: 10億營業額之路

【简析】

一开始勾起我兴趣的是i3investor 的一篇分享:
Why SAM? Order book of RM3Billions and pure cash company (RM103Millions)- (TP:RM10.95)

还有两个响当当的公司, Termasek & GE.




Termasek 是主要股東, 通過屬下公司持有SAM近75%的股權。
GE 是收購了Aviation之後的主要客戶。

巧的是这篇分享过后几天, SAM 就宣布了0.32cent 的股息, 以当时的股价(4.30)股息率达到7.4%, 之后就一路飙涨到近6.00, Ex Date 之后又渐渐跌到5.2-5.3左右。

关于SAM的公司背景上边链接有大概分享, 再此就不做累述了。

比較有趣的是以下幾點:

1. Rm 1 Bil Revenue Target 

先大概了解主要業務,
1) Aero Space (飛機引擎外殼製造)
2) Equipment Manufacturing (硬碟測試製造設備)
3) Precision Engineering (精密加工業)







用Excel 大概分析了個業務的2年走勢, 從以上2表可以看到, 收購了飛機引擎外殼製造業務(Aerospace Segment)之後, 營業額和盈利都穩定的增長。

根據最新的Annual Report, Current Order Book 達到驚人的3.1 Billion.


這些Contract 多數是到2020年的, 而且沒估计錯誤, 都是屬於Aerospace 的Order


也就是說3.1bil/5yrs=620m

假設:
1. 其他Segment貢獻都是0,
2. 和接下來5年都接不到新訂單的情況下,
 5年品均Revenue都有620m(2015年Revenue是 451m)

最新Annual Report的封面清楚表明了Management Team 的目標, Rm 1 Bil 的Revenue, 以現在的訂單情況, 相信在3-5年之內不難達到。

Equipment manufacturing& precision Engineering 方面貢獻不大,公司目標是讓Aerospace達到80%的Revenue份額。 Profit 方面只要Equipment Manufacturing(從事硬碟檢測設備製造,傳統 HDD有被SSD取代之勢, 這幾年相信這Segment難有作為。看近2年的Profit, 偶爾還會出現季度虧損。

2. Net Cash Position & Strong B/S with strong Cash Flow

剛宣佈的高息0.32如果要維持股息率必需有健康的現金流支撐。 假設明年如果要維持這麼高的派息比列, 至少需要30m-40m左右, 現在的現金103m-剛發的27m(86mX0.32), 還有Rm76m餘額, 強勢美金也會對接下來的現金流有正面影響, 畢竟公司大多是以USD交易。

3.Foreign currency translation differences for foreign operations

2015年Income Statement:

很多人都忽略這一筆收入, 這筆美金匯率產生的收益, 有很大可能會在2015年繼續出現。
雖然不是Continue Operation帶來的Revenue, 不過對去年和相信對接下來的現金流會有很大的貢獻。如果加入這一筆外匯收益, Total comprehensive income達到58m, 對比去年, 那是63%的大幅增長。

4. ICULS和公眾持股比例

這是要特別注意的地方, ICULS會嚴重影響EPS和公眾持股比列。



按以上數據可以看到Dilute 之後EPS只有26.12, 也就是說按昨天股價5.20, PE高達20x, 并不是一個吸引人的估值。公司的價值很大程度上仰賴于未來的成長。
2017 Sept是ICULS到期, 到時所有ICULS必定會轉成股票, EPS會抵消部分成長。 除此之外, 會影響公司上市要求的最低公眾持股比例。
高達101250000的ICULS是在Singapore Aerospace Manufacturing Pte. Ltd.(Termasek屬下)手中, 相信在2017年9月之前并不會大手筆轉換以維持SAM 的上市地位。

無形中, 對接下來兩年的股息壓力會少很多。

如果Singapore Aerospace Manufacturing Pte. Ltd.轉換手中持股, 總股數將會多出48.2m。 也就是要維持現在0.32的股息, 必須多付出48.2m X0.32=Rm15.4m左右。

小結:
SAM接下來的發展有30億訂單的支撐, 可預見性很高。
畢竟縱觀現在馬來西亞上市公司, 有幾家手中有30億訂單在手的?(沒統計, 不過相信真的不多)

而且像GE這樣的大客戶, 訂單的確定性與還款等, 少了很多不確定因素。
 重點是ICULS轉換后會影響接下來的EPS, 尤其是2017年9月之後。 不過在美金強勢的支持下, Profit的增長相信會高於Revenue的增長。接下來2年維持高息的可能性也很大。

接下來的重點當然是在AEROSPACE, 然後其它業務不扯後腿的情況下, 相信必有一番作為。而且Profit Margin一直在改善。

還有一點不太喜歡的, 接到新訂單竟然在Bursa沒有公佈, 而是在公司網站提供消息。這點似乎做的不太合宜。


卍個人分析記錄 買賣盈虧自負 分析若有錯誤 勞煩提點指出


股海無涯 Blog: http://e-thg.blogspot.com/

2015年6月20日星期六

SAM

Why SAM? Order book of RM3Billions and pure cash company (RM103Millions)- (TP:RM10.95)

Author: itjustabouttheprofit   |   Publish date: Sat, 20 Jun 2015, 05:31 AM

 

 
EPS estimation : 18.25 x 4 =73sen
PE ratio : 15 (higher PE ratio due to stable
income in the next 5 year, pure cash
company with no debt and high dividend
yield)
Target price : RM10.95 (might be more in
long term)
 
I am here to ANSWER a simple question. Why
SAM?
 
1) Strong order books of RM3billions keep the
company busy until 2026
2) Management determination - Become global
player with annual revenue more than
RM1billions
3) Strong balance sheet -RM103millions cash
with zero borrowing, dividend yield of 4.14%
4) Reputable customers, GE Aviation. subsidiary
of General Electric, which is listed company
in Dow Jones index
 
 
 
Introduction
On 27 September 2012, SAM Engineering &
Equipment (M) Berhad have completed the
acquisition of the entire issued and paid-up
capital for Avitron Pte Ltd from Singapore
Aerospace Manufacturing Pte Ltd for
RM135millions.
 
After the acquisition, it began the new chapter
for SAM Engineering in aerospace industries.
 
There are three main business involvement:
a) Aerospace (69% of total revenue)
 
b) Equipment Manufacturing (24% of total
revenue)
c) Precision Engineering (7% of total revenue)
 
According to annual report 2014,  Temasek
Holdings (Private) Limited (investment company
for Singapore government) owned 74.18% of
indirect interest in SAM Engineering & Equipment
(M) Berhad.
 

 
1) Strong order books of RM3billions keep the
company busy until 2026
 
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/09/08/SAM-plans-to-grow-via-additional-investments-and-acquisitions/?style=biz
From the Star report as at 8 September 2014, the company already have RM2billions orderbook on September 2014
 

 
http://www.sam-malaysia.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Latest-News_17-June-2015.pdf
http://www.sam-malaysia.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Latest-News_26-May-2015.pdf
Refer to the link above, Avitron Pte Ltd, wholly-owned subsidiaries of the company have received RM450millions contracts from GE Aviation on 26 May 2015 and RM900millions contracts from GE Aviation on 17 June 2015. These brought the company currently stood at RM3billions order book.
Calculations are as follows:
                  RM'000
Total order book as per Sep 14            2,000,000.00
Revenue as per 30/09/2014              (112,328.00)
Revenue as per 31/12/2014              (113,542.00)
Revenue as per 31/03/2015              (132,493.00)
New contracts on 26/05/2015                450,000.00
New contracts on 17/06/2015                900,000.00
Total order book as per 17/06/2015            2,991,637.00
The order book of RM3billions will keep the company busy until 2026.
 
 
With the RM3billions order book, the company will able to maintain revenue for the latest quarter, which is RM132million for 5 and a half year!!! (5.5 x 4 x 132 = RM2.904billions)
 

 
2) Management determination - Become global
player with annual revenue more than
RM1billions
 
Refer to the annual report 2014, the company management planned to target annual revenue of RM1billions in the next 2 to 3 years. For year 2015 (up to 17/06/2015),the company have received order book of RM1.35billion (as stated above). These marked the management determination to archieve the target of RM1billion revenue, which is 121% inceased in total revenue from rolling revenue for the past 4 quarters!! From the star news above, the management also stated that they are targetting to become the leading player in Asia Pacific in aerospace industry.
3) Strong balance sheet -RM103millions cash
with zero borrowing, dividend yield of 4.14%
 
As per latest quarterly report, the company held RM103million cash and cash equivalents, which is RM1.23 per share!! Other than that, the company have zero bank borrowing and RM79million of trade and other payables. Net assets for the company stood at RM4.46 per share.
Also, the company have declared RM0.1725 per shares of final and special dividend during 2014, which translated to 4.14% of dividend yield. For financial year 2015, the company expected to declared the dividend during July 2015, which is one month from now. As the company's profit grow for current financial year, hence we expected better dividend payout for this year.
 
 
4) Reputable customers, GE Aviation, subsidiary
of General Electric, which is listed company
in Dow Jones index
 
The main customer of the company, GE Aviation, which is among the top aircraft engine suppliers and offers engines for the majority of commercia aircraft in the world.
GE Aviation is one of the subsidiaries for General Electric Company which is listed in the Dow Jones Index (top 30 largest company in term of market value in US).

https://www.ge.com/sites/default/files/ge_webcast_pressrelease_01232015_1.pdf
According to the quarterly report for General Electric Company. GE Aviation have contributed USD24billions revenue during financial year 2014. 
 

5) Strong currency exchange against ringgit lead
to increase in total revenue
 
As most the contract signed in US dollar (refer to the attachment for the latest contract on 17 June 2015 and 26 May 2015), we expected the total order book increased (in term of ringgit) as ringgit have been depreciation about 10% to 20% during 2015.
 
Trade at your own risk!!! Do research before any investment decision!! Happy trading :-)