马来西亚第二季度 GDP 增长 5.8% - 预估

---

• 经济

• 2024 年 7 月 19 日，星期五

  马来西亚时间 12:23 PM

相关新闻

---



经济 15小时前

中国经济处于高质量发展阶段

银行业务 15 小时前

中国人民银行下调关键政策利率以提振经济

经济 15小时前

不要让特朗普从拜登的经济中获益

吉隆坡：马来西亚国内生产总值 (GDP) 的预估值显示，2024 年第二季度经济增长 5.8%。

国家统计部门在一份声明中表示，2024 年上半年，GDP 预计将增长 5%，而去年同期为 4.1%。

展望未来，预计该国经济在国内和出口驱动因素的推动下将在本季度继续保持增长势头，并且今年剩余时间的前景也十分乐观。

该机构表示，家庭消费支出的增加受到节日和学校假期以及 2024 年 4 月支付 Sumbangan Tunai Rahmah (STR) 第二阶段的刺激。

此外，截至 2024 年 6 月，共从雇员公积金局（EPF）第 3 账户（灵活账户）中提取了 69.8 亿令吉，以支持短期财务需求。

首席统计师拿督斯里莫哈末乌兹尔马希丁表示，第二季度的预计增长与最新指标一致，例如工业生产指数，与上年相比，2024 年 4 月和 5 月分别增长了 6.1％ 和 2.4％。

与此同时，4月份批发和零售业销售额同比增长6.6％，5月份增长7.1％。

明星精选

为每个人创造更健康的未来

“在对外部门，总贸易额、出口额和进口额与去年同期相比都有所增长。其他因素包括游客人数增加、油棕产量增加以及大型项目的进展，”Mohd Uzir 表示。

谈到行业增长，他表示，服务业增长至 5.6%，而第一季度为 4.7%，这得益于批发和零售贸易、运输和仓储以及金融和保险子行业的推动。

受所有子行业增长的推动，制造业从上一季度的 1.9% 增长至 4.7%，而建筑业也录得 17.2% 的两位数增长，也得益于所有子行业的强劲表现。

农业部门增长 7.1%，高于第一季度的 1.6%，这得益于油棕子行业的显著增长。

与此同时，采矿和采石业增长从上一季度的 5.7% 降至 3.3%，这归因于天然气子行业的放缓。

关注我们的官方WhatsApp 频道，获取突发新闻提醒和重要更新！

Malaysia's GDP expands slower at 4.2% in 1Q due to external shocks, cautious private spending

Author: Tan KW   |   Publish date: Fri, 13 May 2016, 11:38 PM 

---

By Sangeetha Amarthalingam / theedgemarkets.com   | May 13, 2016 : 1:22 PM MYT 

KUALA LUMPUR (May 13): Malaysia’s economy grew at a slower pace of 4.2% in its first quarter in 2016 (1QFY16) compared with 5.7% a year ago, with a value of RM291 billion.
According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia, all sectors in production posted a positive growth except for agriculture, while the continuous expansion in the services, manufacturing and construction led the growth, remaining its main catalyst.
On the expenditure side, the economy was spearheaded by private final consumption expenditure and government final consumption expenditure, it said in a statement.
The expansion in both consumption has offset the sluggish performance in external demand.
On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted, the GDP grew 1% compared with 1.2% growth in the fourth quarter of 2015.
The department said that services sector increased to 5.1% (4Q15: 5%) supported by wholesale and retail (5.2%), and information and communication (8.5%).
Business services improved to 7.3% on professional activities, it added.
The manufacturing sector grew at 4.5% (4Q15: 5%), underpinned by electrical, electronic and optical products (5.7%), mainly in semiconductors, computers and peripheral equipment.
“Its performance was further supported by petroleum, chemical, rubber and plastic products that grew 2.7% (4QFY15: 1.4%), following a turnaround in refined petroleum products and expansion in chemical and plastic products,” it said.
The construction sector rose at a faster rate of 7.9% (4Q15: 7.4%), with civil engineering sustaining a double-digit momentum by registering a growth of 17.5% (4Q15: 20.4%) and continued to support the construction sector.
Specialised construction activities strengthened to 8.9%, contributed primarily by earthworks and piling projects.
Exports decreased 0.5% in 1QFY16, reflected by the subdued momentum in exports of goods; while imports moderated to 1.3% (4Q15: 4%) due to a contraction in imports of goods.
Meanwhile, Bank Negara Malaysia in a statement today said the slight moderation in growth, mainly reflected external shocks to the economy and cautious spending by the private sector.
It said the financial system remained resilient against potential risks related to spillovers from the weaker global growth and continued volatility in the international financial and commodity markets.
“Domestic risks more broadly have continued to moderate. However, more challenging business conditions and rising costs will likely weigh on the revenue and loan performance of financial institutions in the period ahead, requiring higher vigilance.
“Overall, downside risks to the global economy remain elevated. Cyclical and structural economic weaknesses continue to weigh on growth in the major economies, in addition to uncertainty in the direction of energy prices and rising geopolitical risks,” it said.
Looking ahead, it said although the global economy is projected to improve, the pace of expansion is expected to be moderate and uneven. In most of Asia, growth will be underpinned by domestic demand, with continued policy support.
Going forward, the Malaysian economy is expected to remain on a sustained growth path of 4% to 4.5%, despite the challenging economic environment both globally and domestically.
“Domestic demand will continue to be the principal driver of growth, sustained primarily by private sector spending. However, domestic consumption is expected to grow at a moderate pace, as households continue to adjust to the higher cost of living.
“Overall investment is also expected to grow at a slower pace, but will remain supported by the implementation of infrastructure development projects and capital spending in the manufacturing and services sectors.
“Uncertainties in the external environment and the on-going adjustments in the domestic economy, pose downside risks to growth,” it added.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/malaysias-gdp-expands-slower-42-1q-due-external-shocks-cautious-private-spending

大马2015年GDP料成长4.7%

财经  2015年03月15日

在国外需求疲弱及国內需求成长减速的局势中，大马债券评估机构（MARC）预测，大马2015年国內生產总值（GDP）將成长4.7%。
大马债券评估机构首席经济学家诺查希迪（Nor Zahidi）预料，2015年下半年的通胀压力，以及更严苛的贷款標准，將压制国內生產总值的成长，难以超越5%水平。
他在一项文告中指出，大马债券评估机构预测，大马2015年消费物价指数（CPI）的成长幅度將介于3至3.5%之间，稍微高于国行预测的2%至3%。
另外，他指出，隔夜政策利率（OPR）今年將保持在3.25%，主要是因为2015年温和的宏观经济前景。
他认为，隔夜政策利率的上涨週期已经结束，因为成长的风险提高，同时，基於疲弱的国內需求，通胀预期走低。
与此同时，他补充，隔夜政策利率下调的机率也有限，这是因为国內家债依然处于高水平。
此外，大部份主要亚洲国家，如印度和中国都纷纷降息，显示亚洲新兴国也加入宽鬆货幣政策的行列。
诺查希迪指出，拥有较多年轻人口的国家，普遍面对比其他国家更高的家债水平。
儘管大马2014年家债增长率已减速至9.9%，然而，家庭债务佔国內生產总值的比重却进一步攀升至87.9%，相比2013年的86.7%。
「大马有接近60%以上的家债，都是用于购买住房和累计资產。」
即使国內经济成长疲软將减低市场借贷意愿，但国家银行依然会採取一些特定措施，以確保產业贷款增长在中短期內降低。
此外，诺查希迪表示，「我们认为，政府需要有更严格的政策，管制房產贷款，主要是因为金融机构的房產贷款总额，已经佔整个金融系统资產的23%。」
针对国內房產价格，他认为，房价將继续走高，预计为家庭平均收入的6.6倍，这也意味著每个家庭在购买房屋后，需要用6.6年的全副工资才能偿还所有贷款。

GDP forecast 2014

GDP forecast and OPR survey

The GDP forecast by most Investment Banks in Malaysia. A market consensus.