显示标签为“Tambun Indah”的博文。显示所有博文
显示标签为“Tambun Indah”的博文。显示所有博文

2014年6月4日星期三

Tambun Indah

FB 分享: 再谈 Tambun Indah

乡下佬论股:

牛市当道,自然的,股票投资者就会增加,同时,每天询问我股票事宜的人也在激增,当中问我最多的莫过于 Tambun Indah 这家公司,大家都是围绕着一个问题:

Tambun 还能买吗?

这个问题啊,真的难倒我了,因为我也不知道答案,再加上现在是牛市,风险明显的高了很多,如果因为我的一句话让大家去了看郁金香,我真的过意不去。

首先,我不知道股市会去到过高,不过无论股市的走势如何,我都会以基本面和价值来做考量,毕竟我还是一位基本面股票投资者。

24-04-2013,我分享了一篇关于 Tambun 的短文:
http://chengyk.blogspot.com/2013/04/fb-tambun-indah-2013-1q.html

现在就让我拿这个旧文,加以更改里面的数据。

Tambun 2013 1Q EPS = 3.61 sens

从 2012 2Q 开始,每个季的营业额维持在 RM 75 Million 以上,做一个保守的估计,如果 2013 年每个季得到 3.5 sens 的 EPS。

那 2013 年的 EPS = RM 0.035 x 4 = RM 0.14 (Estimate)

昨天的股价= RM 1.39 (21.05.2013)

PE = RM 1.39 / RM 0.14 = 9.93

Dividend Policy 40% to 60%

也就是说,股息可能会是 14 sens x 40% = 5.6 sens (我拿最低的 % )

那 DY = (RM0.056 / RM 1.39) x 100% = 4%

着眼看数据还是很好,我个人觉得,一般上中小型公司的 PE  应该是 10 左右,如果有良好成长步伐的可以给到 15,以 Tambun 来说,我个人会认为 10 为合理,毕竟 Tambun 完成了 Pearl City 后就会出现地库不足的问题,前景还有待跟进。

如果这次牛市给 Tambun 的 PE 到 15,那股价应该是在 RM 2 左右,但,这是未知之数,我觉得 PE 10 是相当合理了。

以今天的股价来衡量,我个人就不会买入,因为我认为股价已经反映了价值,但,毕竟这是我的看法,大家看了,当参考就好,投资者永远不要忘记,买卖自负这个法则哦。


乡下佬论股:

为了迎接这次的大选调整,我需要增持现金比率,所以,我不得不放生一些手上的股票,其中一个就是 Tambun-wa。

Tambun-wa, 我在 RM 0.23 买入,基于 wa 是不稳定的,当要在手上的股票做出选择时,tambun-wa 第一个就被被我选中了。

如果没记错,我大概在 RM 0.3X 左右放生,看看现在的股价你就知道我有现在的心有多痛了,哈哈哈。

不过无所谓,这样的事情时常都会发生,调整自己的心态更为重要,我在大选后,第一个重新评估的就是 Tambun,再衡量了各种因素后,我觉得 RM 1 ++ 左右的 Tambun 还是被低估,加上槟城的政局稳定,发地产至少还会向上多两三年,而且 Tambun 也给到 5% 以上的股息率,属于很好的选择,所以,我在 RM 1 左右就开始买入 Tambun。

这次,我不买入 tambun-wa 而是直接买入 tambun,因为我看好 Tambun 之前宣布的股息再投资计划,这个再投资计划能让投资者的资产增值,而 wa 是不能享受这些优惠的。

我写这个短文是要告诉大家,当我们在投资路上做错了决定,不要难过,我们要调整自己的心态,重新出发,因为前面还有更光明的前景在等着我们,步向未来才是我们人生应该拥有的生活态度。

大家,加油哦 !!!

注明:我的资料只供参考,我不对任何看了我写的资料而进行买卖的亏损负责任,要知道,买卖自负哦。

2014年2月11日星期二

Tambun Indah

Forbes Asia  1/29/2014 @ 10:00AM

Malaysia's Teh Kiak Seng Builds Affordable Housing
This story appears in the February 10, 2014 issue of Forbes Asia.



By Noelle Lim
At 63 Teh Kiak Seng still wakes up early in the morning to inspect the construction projects of his company, Tambun Indah. The low-profile property outfit in Malaysia’s Penang state emerged as one of the Forbes Best Under A Billion smaller firms in 2013. From 2007 to 2012 its revenue and pretax earnings each had grown almost 25% on a compounded annual basis. Compared with 2012, in the first nine months of 2013 sales were up 16% while earnings grew 40%.
Most of this growth comes from its Pearl City project, situated on 1,100 acres in Seberang Perai on the mainland side across from Penang Island. Tambun accounted for 14% of the total number of homes sold in 2012 (latest data) in that area, which makes it a significant player there, according to real estate analysis by the Henry Butcher firm. Once Pearl City is completed it will be one of the biggest townships there, serving neighboring industrial parks. Seberang Perai has the longest industrial belt in the country, stretching 21 kilometers, and is home to multinationals like Honeywell and Dell . It is next to Bayan Lepas Free Industrial Zone, Asia’s early Silicon Valley, and is the production hub for semiconductor companies like Intel INTC -0.85% and Western Digital WDC -0.91%.
Teh saw the potential in Seberang Perai while others were building homes on the island, considered the more cultured and affluent side of Penang. It was an easier story to peddle as the old capital enjoyed a renewal in recent years, but Teh, who grew up on the mainland, held out for better land deals. He says, “Land on the island has become very expensive to acquire and develop. Young families would be looking for more affordable housing. That would be in Seberang Perai, where there are jobs.”
Tambun bought its first parcel of land in Pearl City for only $3.11 a square foot in 2008. A recent nearby purchase of 50 acres for $12.44 a square foot was made by Eco World, which is linked to Liew Kee Sin, a veteran property developer who led the takeover of the iconic Battersea Power Station in London. On Penang Island parcels are going for $37 to $47 a square foot, says Fook Tone Huat, an associate director at Henry Butcher.
Teh foresaw spinoff interest after noting resurging interest in Penang. In 2008 the island’s capital, George Town, was designated a Unesco World Heritage site for its architecture and history, which can be traced back to its status as a bustling port in the 18th century under British administration. It was then known as the Pearl of the Orient .
The year 2008 also witnessed a landmark general election for Malaysia. The incumbent federal coalition Barisan Nasional (National Front) lost two key states, Penang and Selangor, to the opposition after decades of rule. The states are the country’s most industrialized, with sizable ethnic Chinese populations. The new chief minister, a former accountant, went on a blitz to clean up state tender processes, trim spending and court investors. Buoyed by renewed optimism, property developers flocked to build million-dollar homes on the island.
The opposition maintained its grip on Penang and Selangor in the 2013 elections. Teh says, “The state government has been working hard, and there are more jobs for youngsters.” The Malaysian Investment Development Authority reported that from 2008 to 2012 Penang saw $8.4 billion worth of projects, second after Selangor (surrounding Kuala Lumpur) at $10 billion and just ahead of much promoted Johor in the south, $7.6 billion.
Connectivity is also improving. A second bridge, measuring 24km, linking the island and mainland, and a modern railway track in Seberang Perai are due to open in 2014. A train ride to the KL metropolis would take only three hours.
According to Teh, it’s not easy to acquire sizable land parcels in Seberang Perai because so many plots have been subdivided by moneyed families over generations. But in 2008 Teh’s reputation in the area led to a contact from Nadayu Properties to jointly develop land it owned, now Pearl City. Tambun Indah bought out Nadayu, resulting in it emerging as a 14% shareholder in the former.
Pearl City will comprise 11,000 homes as well as offices, light industrial plants, a retirement village, a village for furniture makers and a shopping mall. An international school, GEMS from Dubai, is expected to open in 2015. “The quality of Tambun’s properties is slightly above average,” Fook says.
Of the 1,100 acres of land roughly a third remains to build out. All in all the development should translate to pretax earnings of more than $187 million over the next six to seven years, according to a company estimate.
It was by chance Teh became a property developer. He was a civil engineer who’d designed and built 100 factories across the country. One was Dell’s assembly plant in Penang (also another in China’s Xiamen). In 1994 Tsai Yung Chuan, a client and Taiwanese businessman who operates an industrial fastener factory in Penang, asked Teh to jointly purchase and develop 101 acres of land in Seberang Perai. Tambun was incorporated with them as equal shareholders. Teh says, “The bank would not have lent me the money [for the parcel] had Mr. Tsai not guaranteed the loan.” In the latest filings Tsai’s shareholding is down to 8.5%, while Teh holds 38.4%, worth $67 million.
Tambun’s first project was gated housing. Teh says, “People told me I was mad to build bungalows on the mainland when it was more popular to stay on the island. To succeed we had to offer something different, which was big bungalows and a guarded community. Nobody was building quality homes in this area.” Those homes more than doubled in price from 1995 to 2012, to $286,000, according to Henry Butcher. Today Tambun’s residential units, aimed at middle-class buyers, are mostly priced below $187,000.
Teh, however, cautions that there could soon be a slowdown in housing demand in Penang. “But I believe we can overcome this as most of our projects are priced within what the general public can afford,” he says. “We have overcome the Asian financial crisis, which was severe, the dot-com crisis and the global financial crisis.” The company keeps a net cash position. Teh says his conservatism stems from growing up in a poor family.
He is the third of 12 children. In the runup to the Communist revolution his father fled China in the 1940s and settled in Penang as a storekeeper for his brother, who had arrived years earlier. After completing secondary school Teh followed a family friend to work in a construction site in Bertam, a remote island in Indonesia. That was his first taste in construction.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/forb ... affordable-housing/