找不到输的理由: KLK

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2016年5月17日星期二

Author: kltrader | Publish date: Tue, 17 May 2016, 09:58 AM

6MFY16 core net profit of RM414.1m (+4.0% yoy) was below ours and market expectation, accounting for 41.3% and 38.1% of our and consensus forecasts, respectively.

Weaker than expected FFB production, higher than expected interest expense and minority interest.

6MFY16 core net profit was up 4.4% yoy with better performance coming from manufacturing division while its property division continued to underperform. On the other hand, its 2QFY16 core net profit was down 11.1% qoq (+9.5% yoy) with weaker performance from plantation and manufacturing divisions.

Excluding the unrealised forex loss of RM13.5m, plantation division 1HFY16 operating profit was only up marginally by 0.8% with better FFB production growth (+2.6% yoy) and better performance from processing operations offsetting the lower CPO prices.

Downstream business’ operating profit was up significantly to RM219.6m from RM117.7m in 1HFY15 on the back of better sales and improvement in margin (excluding RM23.6m unrealized gain arising from fair value changes on outstanding derivatives contracts). Its margin for this segment improved to 6.1% from 4% in the corresponding period last year.

KLK reported 7MFY16 FFB production of 2.1m tonnes, a decline of 1.7% yoy, likely due to severe drought in its estates in Sabah and Kalimantan in 2015. We now expect a marginal contraction in FFB production for FY16 as production is likely to remain weak in the coming months.

We have revised our earnings forecast downward by 3-5% for FY16-FY17 to factor in the lower FFB production expectation, higher interest expenses and higher minority interest.

HOLD
Negatives

Weak global economic outlook, coupled with the impending excess supply of CPO will affect both demand and prices of CPO.

Positives

Author: Tan KW | Publish date: Tue, 17 May 2016, 05:41 PM

（吉隆坡17日訊）吉隆坡甲洞（KLK，2445，主板種植組）2016年財政年首半年業績普遍符合市場預測，由於預期下半年核心淨利扯平，整體業務仍具挑戰，分析員普遍維持評級之餘，稍為下調盈利預測。

維持評級

馬銀行研究指出，吉隆坡甲洞2016年財政年第二季業績符合該行預測，惟低於一般市場預測，或等於該行全年預測的47%，或占一般市場全年預測的40%。

馬銀行將其淨利預測維持不變，預料它將達到該行全年預測。今年至今為止鮮果串榨取率下跌，料將獲得原棕油價格走高所補償緩沖。

達證券指出，該公司管理層預期今年下半年的種植業務將持續具挑戰，主要是經濟情況不明确及氣候因素。同時，未來數月的鮮果串產量复甦、及原棕油與大豆油價差縮減，將負面影響原棕油的價格表現。

達證券將其2016年至2018年淨利預測下調11至17%，主要反映種植及製造業務賺幅縮減。

肯納格研究表示，預料該公司種植上游業領域於今年第三季表現好轉，按季至今原棕油平均價格為每公吨達2千615令吉，比第二季的2千415令吉揚升8%。

肯納格上調其目標價及評級，主要看好其上游業領域展望及穩定下游賺幅，料將引發投資者興趣，特別是自今年3月中以來，原棕油價格維持在每公吨逾2千500令吉水平。

豐隆研究指出，吉隆坡甲洞2016年財政年首6個月核心淨利4億1千410萬令吉，落後該行及市場預測，即分別僅占全年預測的41.3%及38.1%，這使該行將其2016年及2017年淨利預測，下調3至5%。

下半年有望派息37仙

艾畢斯研究指出，預料該公司全年股息派發率為55%，使下半年的終期股息可達每股37仙水平。

聯昌研究指出，吉隆坡甲洞2016年首半年核心淨利符合預測，次季按年淨利增加4%，主要是較高製造業盈利，反觀種植業務盈利走低，鮮果串產量走低及外匯虧損所致。預料2016年下半年淨利表現將與首半年不相上下。

大馬研究指出，該公司預期2016年財政年全年淨利表現將保持令人滿意水平，油脂化學領域持續擴展，以緩沖艱辛的交易情況。

大馬研究指出，吉隆坡甲洞資產負債表良好，截至2016年3月杪的淨負債僅為28.6%，比截至2015年12月杪的26.1%略高。17.8%負債為美元單位、10.2%為歐元債、其餘負債則大部份為馬幣令吉為主。

（星洲日報／財經‧報導：李文龍）