2014年8月26日星期二

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 25 Aug 2014


Author: kiasutrader   |   Publish date: Mon, 25 Aug 10:13

Asia
BOJ May Ease Policy For 'Some Time' To Slay Deflation. The Bank of Japan may have to pursue its aggressive monetary policy easing for "some time" to fully vanquish deflation, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Saturday. Speaking at a global central banking conference here, Kuroda said the central bank's efforts to overcome deflation by stimulating Japan's economy with large-scale asset purchases was proving effective. He added, however, that the public was not yet convinced Japan's central bank would hit its 2% inflation target. Creating that expectation was necessary to get firms to raise wages - a key step in Japan's long war with deflation, he said. (Reuters)
USA
Fed Chief Yellen Says Slack Remains In US Jobs Market. US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen has said there is still "remaining slack in the labour market". It was understated by the unemployment rate, at 6%, she said. She called for the slack to be "more nuanced" in the way it was assessed, due to "considerable uncertainty" about the level of employment. Speaking to an annual Fed conference in the mountain resort of Jackson Hole, Wyoming, she also remained relaxed about the low interest rate policy. Ms Yellen said the "underutilisation of labour resources" still "remained significant" to the US economy. If inflation went up more rapidly than expected, she said, increases in the federal funds rate target could "come sooner" than expected and "could be more rapid thereafter". (BBC)
Europe
ECB’s Draghi Softens Emphasis On Austerity. The European Central Bank stands ready to take more unconventional action if needed, but it can’t solve the euro zone’s unemployment problem all by itself, Mario Draghi said Friday. In a speech at the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., the ECB president argued that increased flexibility on fiscal policy across the euro zone and efforts to overhaul the region’s labor markets remain crucial. The remarks marked a softening of the ECB’s past focus on fiscal austerity and appeared to hint that large countries in healthy fiscal shape should do more to help drive demand. “Everyone in society is affected by high unemployment. For central banks it is at the heart of the macro dynamics that determine inflation, and even when there are no risks to price stability it increases pressure on us to act,” Draghi said, according to a summary of the speech made available by the ECB. (Market Watch)
French Economy Minister Urges Alternative To German Austerity. The time has come for France to resist Germany's "obsession" with austerity and promote alternative policies across the euro zone that support household consumption, firebrand French Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg said on Sunday. "France is the euro zone's second-biggest economy, the world's fifth-greatest power, and it does not intend to align itself, ladies and gentlemen, with the excessive obsessions of Germany's conservatives," Montebourg said. "That is why the time has come for France and its government, in the name of the European Union's survival, to put up a just and sane resistance [to these policies]." Montebourg said consensus was growing among economists and politicians worldwide on the need for growth-oriented policies and mentioned his German socialist counterpart Sigmar Gabriel and Italy's premier Matteo Renzi as potential allies. (Reuters)
Sweden Lowers Growth Forecast As Crisis Message Draws Rebuke. Sweden’s government cut its growth forecast for a second time in two months, citing the turmoil abroad amid criticism it was seeking to play up crisis concerns to regain voter support ahead of next month’s election. Gross domestic product for the largest Nordic economy will expand 1.9% in 2014, below a July forecast of 2.5%, the Finance Ministry said yesterday in a statement distributed in Harpsund, south of Stockholm. Growth will be 3% in 2015, versus the 3.1% it forecast in July. (Bloomberg)
Currencies
Dollar Marks Biggest Weekly Gain Against Yen In A Year. The U.S. dollar moved higher on Friday after the top Federal Reserve official suggested the economy is moving toward the central bank’s objectives, pushing the greenback to its biggest weekly rise against the yen since July 2013. The dollar climbed against its rivals after Yellen spoke. The dollar bought 103.87 Japanese yen, up from ¥103.81 late Thursday in New York. The dollar pushed to an intraday high of ¥104.19, but gave up much of its gains as the session wore on. The yen rose 1.5% on the week, the biggest weekly rise since July 2013. The euro fell to $1.3244 on Friday from $1.3281 on Thursday. The British pound changed hands at $1.6576, down from $1.6585. The U.S. dollar index, which pits the currency against a basket of rivals, rose to 82.312, from 82.146. (Market Watch)
Commodities
U.S. Crude Falls, Down For Fifth Week, On Ample Supply. U.S. crude oil futures fell on Friday for a fifth straight week of declines while Brent remained under pressure from a stronger dollar and plentiful supplies despite an escalation of tensions between Russian and Ukraine. U.S. crude for October fell 31 cents to settle at $93.65 a barrel, paring earlier losses of more than $1 that brought U.S. crude to $92.92. On Thursday, U.S. crude dropped to $92.50, its lowest price since January. It ended the week down 3.9% in a fifth straight week of losses, the longest streak of weekly drops since November 2013. Brent fell 34 cents to settle at $102.29 a barrel in its second straight week of losses. Brent has fallen in six out of the past nine weeks as it beat a retreat from its June highs above $115. (Reuters)
Gold Rises Slightly After Yellen Comment, But Outlook Dim. Gold prices edged up on Friday as U.S. equities slipped, but gains were limited after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said U.S. labor markets remain hampered by the effects of the Great Recession. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,280.29 an ounce by 3:22 p.m. EDT (1922 GMT), not far from a two month low of $1,273.06 hit on Thursday. The metal is down 1.9% for the week, the biggest drop since the week ended July 18. Among other precious metals, silver was down 0.1% at $19.40 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.3% to $1,416.25 an ounce, snapping a nine-day losing streak, its longest since July 2008. Spot palladium climbed 1.3% to $885.25 an ounce. (Reuters)

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