World will have just 12 hours warning if the sun erupts
- British government has released its Space Weather Preparedness Strategy
- It warns a major solar storm could trigger power cuts and travel disruption
- GPS systems could go down for up to 3 days, causing widespread chaos
- Report urges public to prepare in the same way as other natural disasters
The world will get just 12 hours warning if a huge explosion of high energy particles from the surface of the sun heads our way, a new report has cautioned.
A plan to help prepare for major bursts of 'space weather' has been published by the British government, outlining what needs to be done to cope with such an event.
It says that a massive solar phenomenon would disrupt transport networks, cause blackouts and disrupt satellites.
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The British government has released its Space Weather Preparedness Strategy and warns a major solar storm, like that shown in the image above, could knock out cause blackouts and bring widespread travel disruption. It says GPS signals would go down for days and urges the public to prepare as they would for floods
The report warns that GPS systems could go down for up to three days at a time, leaving train networks and shipping badly affected.
While mobile phones and landlines are expected to be unaffected, satellite communication and high frequency radio communication used by shipping and aircraft, could also go down for several days.
Power grids could also be effected, leading to black outs in some areas.
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The document warns that the most harmful element of severe space weather is a major coronal mass ejection, where huge eruptions blast high energy particles out into space.
It also warns that major solar flares – caused by a build-up of magnetic energy that releases blasts of radiation across the solar system, can also pose a risk.
The report states: 'Space weather results from solar activity. Solar activity can produce X-rays, high energy particles and Coronal Mass Ejections of plasma.
'Where such activity is directed towards Earth there is the potential to cause wide-ranging impacts.
'These include power loss, aviation disruption, communication loss, and disturbance to (or loss) of satellite systems.'
While there is a steady stream of particles buffeting the planets of the solar system from the sun – known as the solar wind – flares and eruptions send intense blasts of radiation and particles.
These vary in frequency with the activity of the sun and often blast off in directions far away from the Earth. However, severe solar events are thought to threaten the Earth every 100 years or so.
The sun regularly emits huge flares, like the one shown above in this image captured by the Solar Dynamics Observatory. This one is relatively small compared to a major solar eruption in 1859 known as the Carrington Event. A similar flare of that size could knock out power grids and bring transport networks to a halt
The last major coronal mass ejection to hit the Earth, known as the Carrington event, was a powerful geomagnetic solar storm in 1859 and is thought to have been the biggest in 500 years.
At the time technology was still relatively underdeveloped, although Telegraph systems all over the world failed and pylons threw sparks.
A large solar flare in March this year knocked out radio transmissions in some parts of the world.
The UK government's Space Weather Preparedness Strategy said on that occasion it took the blast of energy and particles 18 hours to reach the Earth.
But it added: 'It is therefore likely that our reasonable worst case scenario would only allow us 12 hours from observation to impact.'
The strategy warns that while the UK power network would likely be able to cope with a major space weather event, other countries are less well prepared.
It said: 'The GB Power Grid is likely to be more resilient than that of some other countries to the effects of severe space weather for a range of reasons: shorter power lines, a mesh like grid system with the ability to close sections and route power around them and, a more reliant design for new and replacement transformers.'
'Nonetheless, for the GB grid, our relatively high latitude, long coast line and geology are factors that increase risk.'
Aurora Borealis, also known as the northern lights, like those shown above Norway, are caused by the flow of electrically charged particle that are thrown out by the sun during solar storms. Solar events like the one that caused this aurora are relatively minor compared to the one that hit the Earth in 1859
The report also warns that Britain's supergrid transformers have been damaged in the past and could be vulnerable to a major space weather event.
It said voltage instability could also lead to local blackouts that could last several hours.
This would mean householders should ensure they have candles and emergency lighting to cope for that amount of time.
It recommends preparing for a solar storm in much the same way as other natural disasters such as flooding or major storms.
The report warned far greater impacts will be felt due to the loss of signal from GPS satellites caused by a solar storm, which could last for around three days.
It said oil drilling relies heavily on GPS for accuracy and could result in a fall in oil production for the days after the storm. This could lead to short term impacts on fuel for motorists.
Drivers should also carry maps to help them navigate while the GPS network is down.
However mobile phone networks and landline services are unlikely to be affected, meaning these can still be used.
The Met Office now provides forecasts for space weather to help the public and industry prepare for solar storms that may pose a risk to infrastructure, as outlined in the graphic shown above
High frequency communication networks used by aircraft and shipping would go down for several days, which together with the loss of GPS could mean shipping is suspended.
Trains also rely upon GPS systems and so may not be able to run for up to three days after the storm hits.
The report said: 'Global Positioning System satellites are hardened to the effects of space weather so are protected against the direct impacts.
'However, the connection with the satellites might be lost for up to three days. The impact of its loss – or the effectiveness of mitigation - is not yet fully understood.'
The report also says that a solar storm would also increase the exposure of airline passengers to radiation, but says the risk to health would be 'minimal'.
It says passengers will not need to seek medical advice.
The report suggests Britain needs to improve its alerts and warning systems for solar storms. The Met Office recently launched a Space Weather forecasting service.
It also says power and communication infrastructure should be updated to include backups.
Companies and emergency services are urged to have plans in place to deal with the impacts too.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3178801/Are-prepared-major-solar-storm-World-just-12-hours-warning-sun-erupts.html#ixzz3hWjvmlMd
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