The Truth Will Set Me Free - Koon Yew Yin
Author: Koon Yew Yin | Publish date: Tue, 11 Feb 11:19
The Truth Will Set Me Free
Koon Yew Yin
Investment success and human psychology are inseparable. After having read hundreds of commentaries of the articles I posted on this forum, I have a better understanding of human behavior. To illustrate the point I am making, allow me to quote a few relevant verses of the Christian bible.
The bible John 8:32 quote “You will know the truth and the truth will set you free” unquote. In the few days as the price of Jaya Tiasa was moving up, I notice the number of ‘Doubting Thomas’ was also reducing. I refer to those disbelievers.
A doubting Thomas is a skeptic who refuses to believe without direct personal experience—a reference to the Apostle Thomas, who refused to believe that the resurrected Jesus had appeared to the eleven other apostles, until he could see and feel the wounds received by Jesus on the cross. I refer to those disbelievers with strong opposing view.
Luke 23:34 quote “Father forgive them for they know not what they do” unquote. I refer to those who ridiculed me with abusive language.
I will take this opportunity to answer some of the questions:
1. Why should I buy Jaya Tiasa when it is selling P/E 87 while KLK P/E 27, SOP 20, TSH 30, United Malacca 20, Utd. Plant 16 ?
The superior performances of all these companies have been reflected in their share prices already and they are famous and no longer cheap. The price of JT has been depressed for a long time because the average age of their palms is only 5.6 years is currently showing poor earnings. Bearing in mind oil palm production peaks at the age of 11 years, JT has a far better profit growth prospect than the others which is the most important criterion for share selection.
2. Ta Ann is selling cheaper at P/E 26?
My short answer is to look at the following charts and use your imagination to figure out why JT is a better buy.
3. How can you use margin finance safely and avoid Margin Call?
As you know the interest rate for margin loan is only 4.6% pa. To be safe is to buy a share like JT which has a profit growth rate of more than 4.6 %. As long as I am sure that the share can produce more profit than 4.6% pa, I am safe.
To avoid margin call is to use about 70% of the margin and when you feel more confident of the shares you own and general market trend, you can take a little more risk by using more margin.
4. As all shares fluctuate in price, how do you take advantage of this phenomenon?
You must bear in mind that all share prices cannot go up or go down indefinitely for whatever reason. When the price is down, use margin finance to buy more shares and when the price has gone up, sell those shares which were bought with margin loan. With some practice, you can improve your technique in your buying and selling to maximize profit.
5. Jaya Tiasa has too much loan?
It is a good sign as long as the loan is properly use to expand its business. When companies are holding huge amount of cash in fix deposit, it only shows that the management cannot use the cash to generate more profit than the fix deposit rate of 3%.
6. Why don’t I buy shares which are always selling at low P/E ratio and high dividend yield?
Hexza and Symphony Life are 2 good examples. Their shares have been selling at low P/E and high yield for many years. The reason is that they do not have profit growth. Their profit remained the same for many years. Some people will buy these type of shares for their high dividend yield but my aim is different. I want to make money faster.
Note: Jaya Tiasa is my major holding and I am not asking you to buy. Since the start of 2014 it has performed better than the KLCI which indicates that more investors are interested to buy it.
I have organized a talk at 11am on 16th Feb, Sunday at the Club House, Meru Golf Resort, Jelapang, 30020 Ipoh. Those who are interested please email to tell me the number of people who will be coming so that I can arrange a good lunch for you all. My email address: koonyewyin@gmail.com.
Showing 10 of 21 comments. Show more comments
Koon Yew Yin
Investment success and human psychology are inseparable. After having read hundreds of commentaries of the articles I posted on this forum, I have a better understanding of human behavior. To illustrate the point I am making, allow me to quote a few relevant verses of the Christian bible.
The bible John 8:32 quote “You will know the truth and the truth will set you free” unquote. In the few days as the price of Jaya Tiasa was moving up, I notice the number of ‘Doubting Thomas’ was also reducing. I refer to those disbelievers.
A doubting Thomas is a skeptic who refuses to believe without direct personal experience—a reference to the Apostle Thomas, who refused to believe that the resurrected Jesus had appeared to the eleven other apostles, until he could see and feel the wounds received by Jesus on the cross. I refer to those disbelievers with strong opposing view.
Luke 23:34 quote “Father forgive them for they know not what they do” unquote. I refer to those who ridiculed me with abusive language.
I will take this opportunity to answer some of the questions:
1. Why should I buy Jaya Tiasa when it is selling P/E 87 while KLK P/E 27, SOP 20, TSH 30, United Malacca 20, Utd. Plant 16 ?
The superior performances of all these companies have been reflected in their share prices already and they are famous and no longer cheap. The price of JT has been depressed for a long time because the average age of their palms is only 5.6 years is currently showing poor earnings. Bearing in mind oil palm production peaks at the age of 11 years, JT has a far better profit growth prospect than the others which is the most important criterion for share selection.
2. Ta Ann is selling cheaper at P/E 26?
My short answer is to look at the following charts and use your imagination to figure out why JT is a better buy.
3. How can you use margin finance safely and avoid Margin Call?
As you know the interest rate for margin loan is only 4.6% pa. To be safe is to buy a share like JT which has a profit growth rate of more than 4.6 %. As long as I am sure that the share can produce more profit than 4.6% pa, I am safe.
To avoid margin call is to use about 70% of the margin and when you feel more confident of the shares you own and general market trend, you can take a little more risk by using more margin.
4. As all shares fluctuate in price, how do you take advantage of this phenomenon?
You must bear in mind that all share prices cannot go up or go down indefinitely for whatever reason. When the price is down, use margin finance to buy more shares and when the price has gone up, sell those shares which were bought with margin loan. With some practice, you can improve your technique in your buying and selling to maximize profit.
5. Jaya Tiasa has too much loan?
It is a good sign as long as the loan is properly use to expand its business. When companies are holding huge amount of cash in fix deposit, it only shows that the management cannot use the cash to generate more profit than the fix deposit rate of 3%.
6. Why don’t I buy shares which are always selling at low P/E ratio and high dividend yield?
Hexza and Symphony Life are 2 good examples. Their shares have been selling at low P/E and high yield for many years. The reason is that they do not have profit growth. Their profit remained the same for many years. Some people will buy these type of shares for their high dividend yield but my aim is different. I want to make money faster.
Note: Jaya Tiasa is my major holding and I am not asking you to buy. Since the start of 2014 it has performed better than the KLCI which indicates that more investors are interested to buy it.
I have organized a talk at 11am on 16th Feb, Sunday at the Club House, Meru Golf Resort, Jelapang, 30020 Ipoh. Those who are interested please email to tell me the number of people who will be coming so that I can arrange a good lunch for you all. My email address: koonyewyin@gmail.com.
Showing 10 of 21 comments. Show more comments
Sylvia Ryan JTiasa, get some insights here http://stockpip.com/is-it-time-to-buy-palm-oil-shares/
11/02/2014 13:54
plumberii I
was studying JT earlier but did not go very far due to political
strings/chains in there. Political connections can do wonders to a
company but it can also do the reverse for their own gains. Appreciate
your view and analysis on this political front, Mr Koon.
Thanks.
Thanks.
11/02/2014 14:50
Ben Gan Less
than mediocre earnings in the last five quarters; high debt; current
ratio less than 1; Calibre of management: incompetent to doubtful
because of poor showings in earnings; dividend yield: less than 1. There
are just too many red flags in the stock. Wait until you are close to
the tunnel and can see the light more clearly. Better to buy high and
sell higher than to buy low and sell high for those who do not have the
financial muscle to buy and hold.
11/02/2014 14:57
Koon Yew Yin Since
more than 100 people have requested for seat reservation, I have to
change the venue to Ipoh YMCA because Meru Golf Club is too small. The
time and date remain unchanged. I will try to inform all those who have
requested seat reservation.
11/02/2014 14:58
Up_down High FFB production doesn't automatically translate into higher profit.
JTiasa's plantation division was managed to produce high FFB of 708,859 tons for the past 12 months but it suffered a loss.
Look at TAAN, with FFB production of 531,744 tons for the past 12 months, it was able to deliver a profit of 61 million.
The latest financial results of both companies shows a profit. Jtiasa's plantation unit was delivered a minimal profit but its FFB production 38% higher comparing with TAAN. It seems something not right.
JTiasa
Quarter ended 30 Sep 2013 ( Palm oil segment )
FFB production - 234,052 tonnage
Turnover : RM 77,761,000
Profit : RM 9,577,000
Palm oil segment ( past 12 months )
FFB production: 708,859 tonnage
Turnover - 251,806,000
Loss before tax - ( 12,247,000 )
TAAN
Quarter ended 30 Sep 13 ( Palm oil segment )
FFB production - 169,326 tonnage
Turnover - 88,495,000
Profit before tax - 29,582,000
Palm oil segment ( past 12 months )
FFB production - 531,744 tonnage
Turnover - 274,257,000
Profit before tax - 61,497,000
JTiasa's plantation division was managed to produce high FFB of 708,859 tons for the past 12 months but it suffered a loss.
Look at TAAN, with FFB production of 531,744 tons for the past 12 months, it was able to deliver a profit of 61 million.
The latest financial results of both companies shows a profit. Jtiasa's plantation unit was delivered a minimal profit but its FFB production 38% higher comparing with TAAN. It seems something not right.
JTiasa
Quarter ended 30 Sep 2013 ( Palm oil segment )
FFB production - 234,052 tonnage
Turnover : RM 77,761,000
Profit : RM 9,577,000
Palm oil segment ( past 12 months )
FFB production: 708,859 tonnage
Turnover - 251,806,000
Loss before tax - ( 12,247,000 )
TAAN
Quarter ended 30 Sep 13 ( Palm oil segment )
FFB production - 169,326 tonnage
Turnover - 88,495,000
Profit before tax - 29,582,000
Palm oil segment ( past 12 months )
FFB production - 531,744 tonnage
Turnover - 274,257,000
Profit before tax - 61,497,000
11/02/2014 17:11
Koon Yew Yin I
have accepted 120 people to attend my talk. Since all the seats are
taken, I have no more seats for new applicants. Thank you for showing
your interest.
11/02/2014 17:53
plumberii Mr Koon,
For the benefit of those who cannot make it to the gathering, possible to video tape it for wider audience? Or a copy of your slide presentation?
Thanks.
For the benefit of those who cannot make it to the gathering, possible to video tape it for wider audience? Or a copy of your slide presentation?
Thanks.
11/02/2014 18:28
Up_down TAAN
Weight average number of shares: 370,537,000 ( 38.3% of Jaya Tiasa )
Information as at 31 Dec 2012
Land bank: 97,855 hectare
Planted area : 35,345 hectare ( 55.6% of Jaya Tiasa )
Mature area: 26,161 hectare ( 47.2% of Jaya Tiasa )
Some may have a perception that Jtiasa is better than TAAN because Jtiasa would yield high FFB production given its large planted land. If you look into more detail analysis, you would see the difference.
Let say, price of CPO up by RM 100. Both Jtiasa and TAAN would enjoy higher profit from the price increase. But the number of ordinary shares of TAAN is lower than 61.7% comparing with Jtiasa. To achieve the equal EPS of both companies for the contribution from palm oil segment , Jtiasa would have to produce 61.7% higher of FFB.
Currently, the FFB production of Jtiasa is 38% higher than TAAN. Base on the existing planted area ( 55.6% of Jtiasa) of TAAN , It's unlikely Jtiasa would produce 61% more FFB than TAAN in the end.
Is It Jtiasa better than TAAN?
Weight average number of shares: 370,537,000 ( 38.3% of Jaya Tiasa )
Information as at 31 Dec 2012
Land bank: 97,855 hectare
Planted area : 35,345 hectare ( 55.6% of Jaya Tiasa )
Mature area: 26,161 hectare ( 47.2% of Jaya Tiasa )
Some may have a perception that Jtiasa is better than TAAN because Jtiasa would yield high FFB production given its large planted land. If you look into more detail analysis, you would see the difference.
Let say, price of CPO up by RM 100. Both Jtiasa and TAAN would enjoy higher profit from the price increase. But the number of ordinary shares of TAAN is lower than 61.7% comparing with Jtiasa. To achieve the equal EPS of both companies for the contribution from palm oil segment , Jtiasa would have to produce 61.7% higher of FFB.
Currently, the FFB production of Jtiasa is 38% higher than TAAN. Base on the existing planted area ( 55.6% of Jtiasa) of TAAN , It's unlikely Jtiasa would produce 61% more FFB than TAAN in the end.
Is It Jtiasa better than TAAN?
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