[7122] YFG
之前买入YFG【裕丰】纯属是投机。毕竟是投机，所以当时只看2013年里的资料。通过一位网友讲到2012年得到的生物再生能源合约过后，自己也跟着深入研究它。
Basically, I bought in YFG is just for short-term speculation
and purely study the details for year 2013. Someone has alerted me
about the biomass contract (awarded in Jul-12) in my blog. Due to this, I
have made a study on it.
发现这个生物再生能源合约可不简单。瞬间，自己觉得这次的买入不再是投机了。反而是一题很不错的投资。考虑了公司的未来与风险对比，自己再也找不到一个理由不去投资它。
【裕丰】是一个仙股，也是建筑股。对他有兴趣的人应该不多。我就挑战多数人不做的投资来考考个人的眼光。
The
biomass contract looks impressive. Feel like I should not treat this buy
as speculation, but it is worth to treat as a good investment. After
considered the possible of risk vs return, I found no reason why should I
avoid it for longer term of investment. YFG is a penny stock and also
involve in construction business. This should make most of the investor
avoid to invest it. Anyway, I would like to make a challenge by invest
on it and to prove my own judgement.
写以下的分析来回答哪位网友的看法：
做建筑生意的公司，不必太在意去预测短期的业绩。需要看的东西是工程几时完成和能影响业绩的数目。然后就拉长来看（一两年后的效果）和耐心的去等。
APSB是从TNB得到这个13MW
Biomass Power Generation Plant的工程，合约是21年。建厂的这个责任，APSB给了YFG的子公司做，工程价值是RM110mil。建成后，YFG的子公司也得到五年的管理和保养合约（不包燃烧材料），每年RM4.9mil的价值，到时再由APSB决定会不会跟YFG续约（RM4.9mil x 110%）。
建厂的附带款条件是，部分钱以股份来交换（RM17mil）。其他，是APSB通过Term
Loan（RM88mil）的贷款和APSB的股东出小部分钱（RM5mil）来买APSB的股份。APSB会以五个阶段来发出17mil ICPS shares给YFG。整个工程，会在24个月内完成。最新的季报讲，工程会在Q2FY15完成。这代表，2013年尾已经开工了。通常，付款都有credit term的限期，可能是30/60/90天。
其实，Q1FY14最新的季报，Segment
Reporting，你可以看到Customer
A贡献了RM19,738,452。这个数目，就是第一期Term
Loan付款的数目。这个数目，加上股东的付款和部分的ICPS share就是等于24.5mil。
个人看法，这个合约能带给公司一个稳定的收入，毕竟合约是固定的数目。只要公司能够好好控制建筑，管理和保养的费用，赚多少都是在公司的预测范围。公司未来的大方向是要制造一个比较稳定的收入。如果你是老板，这个工程不能达到应有的效应，你会接吗？肯定不会是为了要得到合约而接来做吧？
这个合约值得RM110mil，管理层预测税前盈利率是大概20%。代表，这两年内的收入是RM22mil。比如，扣除25%的税，净盈利是RM16.5mil。这等于每季有RM2.06mil的净盈利（除8）。。。好像很高？不懂是不是还须扣除其他行政开支。如果要保守来算，就给他10-15%税前盈利率好了。要记得，工程完成后，还有每年价值RM4.9mil管理和保养的稳定合约。我预测，管理和保养的合约会很好赚。所以，盈利率应该会比较高。
单单讲到这个生物再生能源工程，看来也对公司的贡献也不错。还有其他手上的工程的收入。剩下的分析，就交给大家慢慢去思考思考。。。
My reply (analysis) to Carson88's comment:
For
company involve in construction business, I will not predict the
business result in short-term, but will look on its contract's value and
completion time-frame. Follow by judge the impact from the contracts within 1-2 years. Then, just buy in and wait patiently.
TNB awarded a 21 years contract on 13MW Biomass Power Generation Plant project to APSB. Whereby, APSB awarded the construction, operation and maintenances contract to YFG. Pls see the details below:
"A fully
owned subsidiary of YFG has on 10th July 2012 entered into an Operating
and Maintenance Agreement (O&M Agreement) with Agni Power Sdn. Bhd.
to undertake the operation, maintenance and repair services of the 13MW
Biomass Power Generation Plant with 10MV exportable energy to be built,
production and supply of electric power to Tenaga Nasional Berhad for a
term of Five (5) years from the date on which APSB shall have certified
to YFG under the Engineering, Procurement and Construction Contract
(EPC Contract) by means of a Substantial Completion Certificate that
APSB has taken over that part of the Proposed Power Plant required to be
completed from YFG at an Initial Maintenance Fee amounting to RM4.9
million per annum.
The
Initial Maintenance Fee shall include the labour costs, power
consumption, water consumption but shall exclude the supply of raw empty
fruit bunches of oil palm trees which shall be used as fuel for the
Proposed Power Plant and insurances for the Proposed Power Plant.
The parties agree that One (1) year prior to the expiry of the Term, APSB shall have the right to determine whether to further renew the Term and the Maintenance Fee shall be reviewed and increased by a rate of ten per centum (10%) of the Initial Maintenance Fee."
The deal between YFG and APSB is as below, which partial payment (RM17mil) will go through issue of ICPS to YFG. (Represents 19% of the total issued and paid up capital of APSB.)
The power plant construction has started on Q4FY12 and will complete on Q2FY15. The first payment has been reflected on YFG's balance sheet at Q1FY14 (refer to segment reporting of the quarter report).
The rationale for entering into the O&M Agreement is to fit into YFG’s strategy to diversify its business by providing operation and maintenance services in order to bring in recurring revenue. Once the Proposed Power Plant has been successfully completed and commissioned, the O&M Agreement is expected to bring in recurring revenue which will contribute positively to YFG’s future consolidated earnings and net assets.
The management expects to derive an expected pre-tax margin of approximately 20% arising from EPC contract, representing an estimated pre-tax profit of approximately RM22mil over the 2-year duration of the proposed project. Let's say if the tax is 25%, the total net profit will be RM16.5mil or equivalent to RM2.06mil quarterly (total 8 quarters). It looks a lot? Not sure whether still need to minus off the administration fee. To be conservative, we can give it at 10%-15% discount. To be remind that there will be another RM4.9mil/year arise from maintenance work as recurring income for the company. Normally, maintenance work will come with good profit margin.
Purely look on this biomass contract, it will definitely bring a good impact on initial and recurring income for company. What if by considering other on hand contracts awarded at 2013, valued at more than RM500mil? I will let you all to think about it...
The parties agree that One (1) year prior to the expiry of the Term, APSB shall have the right to determine whether to further renew the Term and the Maintenance Fee shall be reviewed and increased by a rate of ten per centum (10%) of the Initial Maintenance Fee."
The deal between YFG and APSB is as below, which partial payment (RM17mil) will go through issue of ICPS to YFG. (Represents 19% of the total issued and paid up capital of APSB.)
 |
| YFG - Biomass Contract's Payment Details |
The power plant construction has started on Q4FY12 and will complete on Q2FY15. The first payment has been reflected on YFG's balance sheet at Q1FY14 (refer to segment reporting of the quarter report).
The rationale for entering into the O&M Agreement is to fit into YFG’s strategy to diversify its business by providing operation and maintenance services in order to bring in recurring revenue. Once the Proposed Power Plant has been successfully completed and commissioned, the O&M Agreement is expected to bring in recurring revenue which will contribute positively to YFG’s future consolidated earnings and net assets.
The management expects to derive an expected pre-tax margin of approximately 20% arising from EPC contract, representing an estimated pre-tax profit of approximately RM22mil over the 2-year duration of the proposed project. Let's say if the tax is 25%, the total net profit will be RM16.5mil or equivalent to RM2.06mil quarterly (total 8 quarters). It looks a lot? Not sure whether still need to minus off the administration fee. To be conservative, we can give it at 10%-15% discount. To be remind that there will be another RM4.9mil/year arise from maintenance work as recurring income for the company. Normally, maintenance work will come with good profit margin.
Purely look on this biomass contract, it will definitely bring a good impact on initial and recurring income for company. What if by considering other on hand contracts awarded at 2013, valued at more than RM500mil? I will let you all to think about it...
资料来源（Source）：
基本投机篇：YFG
YFG的前名为PJI。主要做建筑和房地产的生意。
甜头如下：
1. 手中拥有超过5亿的工程。去年整年的营利才1.35亿。公司也正在投标着7亿多的工程。
2. 咸鱼翻身的效应。
3. 技术面。
风险如下：
1. 公司的现金低，工程收不到钱分分钟会导致公司黄飞鸿收档。
2. 有些工程大，限期又短。不能准时交工，随时中罚钱。
3. 没股息，股价变死水一般，到头来什么都得不到反而错失投资其它好股的机会。
投资在好基本的股，风险都不能避免。所以，投机在基本不稳的股，风险就变得更大。还是老土的再说一句，买卖自负！
Aside from invest in good fundamental stock, I do buy stock for speculation purpose. But it must come with reasonable requirements and the stock must not to be a company with very bad result. For this kind of speculation with FA, just take a brief look on fundamental figure will do. Focus is more on some key-point which is able bring up the share price.
YFG, known as PJI in the past, is mainly doing construction and property business.
Below are the key-points to speculate:
1. On hand contract with more than RM500mil. Last fiscal year's revenue is only RM135mil. Company is still actively tendering for more jobs worth about RM700mil.
2. The effect of salt fish revival.
3. Technical chart looks good.
Below are the risks:
1. Cash level is very low. If receivable unable turn into cash during or after project completion, company may face bankruptcy.
2. Certain on hand contracts come with big value and short completion time-frame. If job fail to meet the timeline, company may be penalised for late delivery.
3. No dividend. If the share price remain flat for long time, you may get nothing and also miss out opportunity to invest in other good stocks.
We have to face risk even invest in strong fundamental stock. Thus, the risk will be greater for speculation. Buy at your own risk!
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