续 翻种过程和豆科植物，
每当我打开年报里的拍摄照片时，都能看到，在幼树园区里，地面通常会呈现一片绿色的豆科植物，这些豆科植物的作用，其实和野草差不多：
1.保持土壤湿润。
2.调节土壤酸碱度。
3.避免肥料流失。
4.提供动物的饲料。
5.改善土质。
（至于野草的坏处，则不叙述）
一般上，闲置的土地都会让它长出野草，它可以作为调节用途，虽然它会抢走土地的营养，但总比给雨水冲刷和阳光暴晒来的好。
除了以上5点好处以外，豆科植物的好处还有：
1.豆科植物的根瘤菌可以把空气中的nitrogen转化为N肥。
2.保护磷元素（P肥），避免流失，提高磷元素的效力。
在长期施放肥料的土地里，化肥的效力会逐渐的丧失，在偏酸性的土壤里，P肥会和土壤形成“石化”现象和“结晶”现象，科学一点的说法是，P肥和土壤里的金属形成的化合物，不能被水溶解，不能被根部吸收。
在豆科植物的帮助下，它能把P肥先吸收起来，死后的枯叶会供应P肥给油棕树（这种形式的P肥比较容易被吸收），这种现象称为“再转化”（remobilization）
3.豆科植物是野草的克星。豆科植物的叶面能够遮蔽大部分的阳光，不让野草生长。
一个问题是，为什么豆科植物那么好，小园主不知道？
据我所知，这种技术是从2003年才开始“引进”的，这是我的猜测。
如果没有错，IOICORP应该是从2003年才开始有这种安排的，kulim从2004年才开始。（可以说，目前，几乎所有的上市公司都掌握了这个知识。）
我必须强调的是，我不是什么植物专家。
或许，这种豆科植物，已经普遍流行在园丘里了，只是没有相关的“学术研究”证明它的好处。
根据我的搜索，大约在2004年，才有栽培豆科植物的培训课程。
目前最被广泛应用的豆科品种为Mucuna Bracteata。 （MB）
几乎所有的上市公司都用这种品种。
另一个“次流行”为Pueraria phaseoloides。（PP）
MB和PP可以共生，能互补。MB PP mix，也是广泛的方法。
这两种豆科都有很厚的绒毛。
这两种豆科，也被橡胶业者运用。
PP的侵略性较强，生长速度快，据说一天能长一尺，它属于“葛类”，有很厚实的根，这个品种曾被美国的农业部分类为Noxious Weeds（有害的杂草），至于现在有没有解除这个分类，就不知了。
PP比较容易招来毛虫，但业者懂得利用毛虫的天敌，控制毛虫。（这是我们常人没办法控制的）
PP较被牲畜接受，MB不被牲畜接受，可能是不好吃。
MB较能忍受缺乏阳光的环境，如果油棕树长大，它可能也可以存活，为了收割方便，以上两种豆科都会被淘汰。（说来惭愧，我不知道它们会自然死去，还是人工拔除？）
在肥料方面，上市公司说他们可以省下施放N肥的成本，这也是常人无法控制的知识。对我们而言，“最好”的方法就是按照肥料商的建议，把调配好的肥料施放。况且，普遍上，“单一施肥”并不被鼓励。
虽然这两种野生植物很常见（只是平常没注意），但能给你建议的人，应该只有supplier和售卖nursery的人了。
原谅我不能继续贴图，这是因为这些资料是从网上得到的，只能适可而止。
每当我打开年报里的拍摄照片时，都能看到，在幼树园区里，地面通常会呈现一片绿色的豆科植物，这些豆科植物的作用，其实和野草差不多：
1.保持土壤湿润。
2.调节土壤酸碱度。
3.避免肥料流失。
4.提供动物的饲料。
5.改善土质。
（至于野草的坏处，则不叙述）
一般上，闲置的土地都会让它长出野草，它可以作为调节用途，虽然它会抢走土地的营养，但总比给雨水冲刷和阳光暴晒来的好。
除了以上5点好处以外，豆科植物的好处还有：
1.豆科植物的根瘤菌可以把空气中的nitrogen转化为N肥。
2.保护磷元素（P肥），避免流失，提高磷元素的效力。
在长期施放肥料的土地里，化肥的效力会逐渐的丧失，在偏酸性的土壤里，P肥会和土壤形成“石化”现象和“结晶”现象，科学一点的说法是，P肥和土壤里的金属形成的化合物，不能被水溶解，不能被根部吸收。
在豆科植物的帮助下，它能把P肥先吸收起来，死后的枯叶会供应P肥给油棕树（这种形式的P肥比较容易被吸收），这种现象称为“再转化”（remobilization）
3.豆科植物是野草的克星。豆科植物的叶面能够遮蔽大部分的阳光，不让野草生长。
一个问题是，为什么豆科植物那么好，小园主不知道？
据我所知，这种技术是从2003年才开始“引进”的，这是我的猜测。
如果没有错，IOICORP应该是从2003年才开始有这种安排的，kulim从2004年才开始。（可以说，目前，几乎所有的上市公司都掌握了这个知识。）
我必须强调的是，我不是什么植物专家。
或许，这种豆科植物，已经普遍流行在园丘里了，只是没有相关的“学术研究”证明它的好处。
根据我的搜索，大约在2004年，才有栽培豆科植物的培训课程。
目前最被广泛应用的豆科品种为Mucuna Bracteata。 （MB）
几乎所有的上市公司都用这种品种。
另一个“次流行”为Pueraria phaseoloides。（PP）
MB和PP可以共生，能互补。MB PP mix，也是广泛的方法。
这两种豆科都有很厚的绒毛。
这两种豆科，也被橡胶业者运用。
PP的侵略性较强，生长速度快，据说一天能长一尺，它属于“葛类”，有很厚实的根，这个品种曾被美国的农业部分类为Noxious Weeds（有害的杂草），至于现在有没有解除这个分类，就不知了。
PP比较容易招来毛虫，但业者懂得利用毛虫的天敌，控制毛虫。（这是我们常人没办法控制的）
PP较被牲畜接受，MB不被牲畜接受，可能是不好吃。
MB较能忍受缺乏阳光的环境，如果油棕树长大，它可能也可以存活，为了收割方便，以上两种豆科都会被淘汰。（说来惭愧，我不知道它们会自然死去，还是人工拔除？）
在肥料方面，上市公司说他们可以省下施放N肥的成本，这也是常人无法控制的知识。对我们而言，“最好”的方法就是按照肥料商的建议，把调配好的肥料施放。况且，普遍上，“单一施肥”并不被鼓励。
虽然这两种野生植物很常见（只是平常没注意），但能给你建议的人，应该只有supplier和售卖nursery的人了。
原谅我不能继续贴图，这是因为这些资料是从网上得到的，只能适可而止。
02 SEPTEMBER 2009
国外的一些数据
许多人担忧南美和非洲的油棕种植扩展，会威胁到世界的棕油供应量，其实这些“种植面积”背后“平均亩产”才是最主要的关键。
马来西亚的平均亩产是每公顷20公吨果串。
非洲的平均亩产是每公顷4公吨果串。
是什么原因造成差距这么大？原因相信是多重的。
近的不说（如气候，土壤），远的，这还包括“传粉昆虫”的季节，肥料施放，和品种。
马来西亚是第一个“用足”化肥的国家。如下表所示，早在1998年，印尼的油棕树的均产是15，马来西亚的是18.83。
钾肥施放量，印尼是10，马来西亚是170。
当然，很多因素是可以造成“为什么要放这么多”的，所以我们不能说谁对谁错，例如土壤的性质。
此外，品种和培育是农业必须面对的“宿命”，因为农作物是不能延续母体的高产特性的，除了clone，接枝（但油棕树很难接枝），改良，配种以外，别无他法。
马来西亚的平均亩产是每公顷20公吨果串。
非洲的平均亩产是每公顷4公吨果串。
是什么原因造成差距这么大？原因相信是多重的。
近的不说（如气候，土壤），远的，这还包括“传粉昆虫”的季节，肥料施放，和品种。
马来西亚是第一个“用足”化肥的国家。如下表所示，早在1998年，印尼的油棕树的均产是15，马来西亚的是18.83。
钾肥施放量，印尼是10，马来西亚是170。
当然，很多因素是可以造成“为什么要放这么多”的，所以我们不能说谁对谁错，例如土壤的性质。
此外，品种和培育是农业必须面对的“宿命”，因为农作物是不能延续母体的高产特性的，除了clone，接枝（但油棕树很难接枝），改良，配种以外，别无他法。
30 JULY 2009
国际钾肥价格坚冰破裂
博主评：这对于种植业来说是个好消息，但如果肥料跌得太严重也会拖累商品市场的。
如果钾肥的价格从usd750降至usd500，如果我们以每公吨cpo成本计算，这就等于省下的成本为RM66.667。
（假设目前的每公吨cpo钾肥成本为RM200）
中国化肥网 2009-7-25 9:00:56
国际钾肥市场僵局在7月10日被打破。在印度IPL公司6月30日举行的氯化钾招标会上，绝大多数投标价格在 CFR625美元左右，上下浮动不超过10美元，而IPC公司（俄罗斯希利维尼特钾肥公司的销售公司）竞以CFR460美元的价格向印度供货。在过去的半年多时间里，标准氯化钾现货价格都维持在CFR735美元左右，同时生产商们纷纷削减产量，以让各国消化库存。就在IPL举行招标前，北美钾肥销售联盟还跟日本、韩国和台湾签订了下半年供货合同，价格略高于CFR700美元，因此说CFR625美元的价格已比较低了。一些观察家认为印度合同价格将在600 美元左右，也许会低至575美元，最乐观的估计也在550美元，没人预料到会以460美元的价格成交，因为印度政府给钾肥提供补贴，且该国氯化钾库存量已降至很低。
为什么IPC会接受CFR460美元的价格带来了争议。IPC声明“向印度供货的时间将会被推迟甚至有可能被取消，因为印度政府给钾肥的补贴远高于对其他化肥品种”。印度农民购买1吨氯化钾的价格在95美元左右。
世界各地的很多买家和经销商都认为氯化钾价格在400多美元左右才能有效地刺激需求，甚至一些生产商也在私下如此表示。有人认为希利维尼特钾肥公司是迫于特殊压力答应这样的价格。去年，该公司为了取得一钾矿的开采权支付了高达15亿美元的费用。有推测该公司的压力来自贷款银行，传言有高达7亿美金的贷款短期内到期。
现在最大的疑问是其他供应商的反应，他们会接受这一新价格，还是仍然坚持CFR625美元呢？看起来接受的可能性很大，已经有一条船从以色列开往印度，而且第二条船也已被预定。一家公司在德国也预订了船只。（向槐）
(作者:向槐 责任编辑:白云)
India breaks Potash cartel to save Rs 5K cr on fertiliser subsidies
22 Jul 2009, 2104 hrs IST, Prabha Jagannathan, ET Bureau
NEW DELHI: India has managed to clinch almost three million of its annual average of
five million tonne potash imports at a record low price
of $ 460 per tonne after busting
a global potash cartel’s stranglehold on pricing. This could mean a neat saving of Rs 5000 crore from the fertiliser subsidy bill of Rs 55,000 crore (BE 09-10) since the benchmark delivered price, clinched by Indian Potash Ltd (IPL), is now applicable to all Indian potash buys.
Thus far, a small group of companies that control roughly 75 percent of global supply had cartelised to cut production drastically in order to keep the prices high. With this, India has established itself firmly in the A list of global fertiliser buyers with clout to dictate the price of the commodity, a crucial plant nutrient as well as an industrial input.
Analysts surmised that the same price level woudl be offered to China. However, the best part of the deal is that India will get the cheapest potash in the world and should China, who is the world’s biggest buyer, manage to swing a lower price, the same would apply to all the Indian potash buys as well. IPL, is the country’s biggest buyer of potash and imports around 3.5 million tonnes annually. “Nobody else is going to swing a lower price for potash by wielding the gun from our shoulders,” Iffco MD U S Awasthi told ET. Iffco, the country’s largest fertiliser cooperative, owns 34% stake in IPL.
But on July 13, when it sewed up the first deal on potash supplies to the tune of 8.5 lakh tonnes at a literally jaw-dropper price of $460/tonne with IPC, UK (Silvinit’s marketing arm), it was dismissed by sectoral analysts worldwide as a fluke deal with a “desperate” company. The offer price by a powerful cartel of global potash majors including Canpotex, which is owned by Potash Corp, Mosaic Co. and Agrium Inc. was $625-635/tonne. Potash prices had soared in June to $700/tonne despite low demand thanks to the grip of the same cartel on prices. Canpotex sells Canadian potash to Brazil, China, India, and other Asian markets,
The real breakthrough that reinforced the benchmark price , though, only happened this Monday, when the world’s sixth largest potash maker and the second largest listed company on the Tel Aviv stock exchange, Israel Chemicals (ICL), took a beating on its shares overnight and caved in. “That proved the Doubting Thomases completely wrong on our price deal with Silvinit being a fluke,” points of P S Gahlaut, head of IPL. Shares of ICL ended down 8.7 percent at 35.60 shekels, by far the biggest decline on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange.
Immediately after, it signed the 9 month supply deal on July 20 for 5.75 lakh tonnes of
potash to IPL at $460/tonne. It also started
talking to other potash customers in India,
against indications that its earnings could be impacted. ICL’s supply volume was lower than last year since Silvinit ( SILV.RTS) had already secured a more than normal supply deal with India. Ironically, only the week before, ICL had been iffy on any potash supply deal with IPL.
The potash drama began when, after the Silvinit deal, shares of several potash majors worldwide started nosediving, pushing other potash exporters, Germany’s K&S, BPC (Belorus) , Canpotex and APC (Arab Potash) to the wall on their offer price. Shares of Potash Corp, the world's largest potash producer, fell 3 percent to $82.47 on the New York Stock Exchange last fortnight while its peers Mosaic and Agrium were also trading lower. Concerns sharpened after the Silvinit deal was sealed. On July 21, German potash makers K&S singed on for supply of one lakh tonnes at $460/tonne to IPL. On July 22, the Belarussian Potash Corp.
which had started rethinking its potash pricing strategy after the Silvinit deal, signed on for supply of five lakh tonnes at the benchmark price. It didn’t take long for the giants to follow suit. “Today, we are in talks with Arab Potash and Canpotex and could soon sew up a supply deal at the benchmark price with both,” Gahlaut told ET. A supply deal for over one million tonnes of potash is expected to be wrapped up with these giants.
Belarusian Potash Co. a 50-50 joint venture between Russia's Uralkali and Belaruskali, initially offered the second-lowest price, followed by Israel Chemicals Ltd., K+S AG, Jordan’s Arab Potash Corp., and Canpotex Ltd., marketer for g North American producers Potash Corp., Mosaic Co. and Agrium Inc. BPC,. the three in the Canpotex partnership, Silvinit and Germany's K+S account for about 75 percent of global potash supply.
Potash is the common name given to potassium carbonate and various mined and manufactured salts that contain the element potassium in water-soluble form.Potash has been used since antiquity in the manufacture of glass, soap, and soil fertilizer. Potash is important for agriculture because it improves water retention, yield, nutrient value, taste, colour, texture and disease resistance of food crops. It has wide application to fruit and vegetables, rice, wheat and other grains, sugar, corn, soybeans, palm oil and cotton, all of which benefit from the nutrient’s quality enhancing properties.
如果钾肥的价格从usd750降至usd500，如果我们以每公吨cpo成本计算，这就等于省下的成本为RM66.667。
（假设目前的每公吨cpo钾肥成本为RM200）
中国化肥网 2009-7-25 9:00:56
国际钾肥市场僵局在7月10日被打破。在印度IPL公司6月30日举行的氯化钾招标会上，绝大多数投标价格在 CFR625美元左右，上下浮动不超过10美元，而IPC公司（俄罗斯希利维尼特钾肥公司的销售公司）竞以CFR460美元的价格向印度供货。在过去的半年多时间里，标准氯化钾现货价格都维持在CFR735美元左右，同时生产商们纷纷削减产量，以让各国消化库存。就在IPL举行招标前，北美钾肥销售联盟还跟日本、韩国和台湾签订了下半年供货合同，价格略高于CFR700美元，因此说CFR625美元的价格已比较低了。一些观察家认为印度合同价格将在600 美元左右，也许会低至575美元，最乐观的估计也在550美元，没人预料到会以460美元的价格成交，因为印度政府给钾肥提供补贴，且该国氯化钾库存量已降至很低。
为什么IPC会接受CFR460美元的价格带来了争议。IPC声明“向印度供货的时间将会被推迟甚至有可能被取消，因为印度政府给钾肥的补贴远高于对其他化肥品种”。印度农民购买1吨氯化钾的价格在95美元左右。
世界各地的很多买家和经销商都认为氯化钾价格在400多美元左右才能有效地刺激需求，甚至一些生产商也在私下如此表示。有人认为希利维尼特钾肥公司是迫于特殊压力答应这样的价格。去年，该公司为了取得一钾矿的开采权支付了高达15亿美元的费用。有推测该公司的压力来自贷款银行，传言有高达7亿美金的贷款短期内到期。
现在最大的疑问是其他供应商的反应，他们会接受这一新价格，还是仍然坚持CFR625美元呢？看起来接受的可能性很大，已经有一条船从以色列开往印度，而且第二条船也已被预定。一家公司在德国也预订了船只。（向槐）
(作者:向槐 责任编辑:白云)
India breaks Potash cartel to save Rs 5K cr on fertiliser subsidies
22 Jul 2009, 2104 hrs IST, Prabha Jagannathan, ET Bureau
NEW DELHI: India has managed to clinch almost three million of its annual average of
five million tonne potash imports at a record low price
of $ 460 per tonne after busting
a global potash cartel’s stranglehold on pricing. This could mean a neat saving of Rs 5000 crore from the fertiliser subsidy bill of Rs 55,000 crore (BE 09-10) since the benchmark delivered price, clinched by Indian Potash Ltd (IPL), is now applicable to all Indian potash buys.
Thus far, a small group of companies that control roughly 75 percent of global supply had cartelised to cut production drastically in order to keep the prices high. With this, India has established itself firmly in the A list of global fertiliser buyers with clout to dictate the price of the commodity, a crucial plant nutrient as well as an industrial input.
Analysts surmised that the same price level woudl be offered to China. However, the best part of the deal is that India will get the cheapest potash in the world and should China, who is the world’s biggest buyer, manage to swing a lower price, the same would apply to all the Indian potash buys as well. IPL, is the country’s biggest buyer of potash and imports around 3.5 million tonnes annually. “Nobody else is going to swing a lower price for potash by wielding the gun from our shoulders,” Iffco MD U S Awasthi told ET. Iffco, the country’s largest fertiliser cooperative, owns 34% stake in IPL.
But on July 13, when it sewed up the first deal on potash supplies to the tune of 8.5 lakh tonnes at a literally jaw-dropper price of $460/tonne with IPC, UK (Silvinit’s marketing arm), it was dismissed by sectoral analysts worldwide as a fluke deal with a “desperate” company. The offer price by a powerful cartel of global potash majors including Canpotex, which is owned by Potash Corp, Mosaic Co. and Agrium Inc. was $625-635/tonne. Potash prices had soared in June to $700/tonne despite low demand thanks to the grip of the same cartel on prices. Canpotex sells Canadian potash to Brazil, China, India, and other Asian markets,
The real breakthrough that reinforced the benchmark price , though, only happened this Monday, when the world’s sixth largest potash maker and the second largest listed company on the Tel Aviv stock exchange, Israel Chemicals (ICL), took a beating on its shares overnight and caved in. “That proved the Doubting Thomases completely wrong on our price deal with Silvinit being a fluke,” points of P S Gahlaut, head of IPL. Shares of ICL ended down 8.7 percent at 35.60 shekels, by far the biggest decline on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange.
Immediately after, it signed the 9 month supply deal on July 20 for 5.75 lakh tonnes of
potash to IPL at $460/tonne. It also started
talking to other potash customers in India,
against indications that its earnings could be impacted. ICL’s supply volume was lower than last year since Silvinit ( SILV.RTS) had already secured a more than normal supply deal with India. Ironically, only the week before, ICL had been iffy on any potash supply deal with IPL.
The potash drama began when, after the Silvinit deal, shares of several potash majors worldwide started nosediving, pushing other potash exporters, Germany’s K&S, BPC (Belorus) , Canpotex and APC (Arab Potash) to the wall on their offer price. Shares of Potash Corp, the world's largest potash producer, fell 3 percent to $82.47 on the New York Stock Exchange last fortnight while its peers Mosaic and Agrium were also trading lower. Concerns sharpened after the Silvinit deal was sealed. On July 21, German potash makers K&S singed on for supply of one lakh tonnes at $460/tonne to IPL. On July 22, the Belarussian Potash Corp.
which had started rethinking its potash pricing strategy after the Silvinit deal, signed on for supply of five lakh tonnes at the benchmark price. It didn’t take long for the giants to follow suit. “Today, we are in talks with Arab Potash and Canpotex and could soon sew up a supply deal at the benchmark price with both,” Gahlaut told ET. A supply deal for over one million tonnes of potash is expected to be wrapped up with these giants.
Belarusian Potash Co. a 50-50 joint venture between Russia's Uralkali and Belaruskali, initially offered the second-lowest price, followed by Israel Chemicals Ltd., K+S AG, Jordan’s Arab Potash Corp., and Canpotex Ltd., marketer for g North American producers Potash Corp., Mosaic Co. and Agrium Inc. BPC,. the three in the Canpotex partnership, Silvinit and Germany's K+S account for about 75 percent of global potash supply.
Potash is the common name given to potassium carbonate and various mined and manufactured salts that contain the element potassium in water-soluble form.Potash has been used since antiquity in the manufacture of glass, soap, and soil fertilizer. Potash is important for agriculture because it improves water retention, yield, nutrient value, taste, colour, texture and disease resistance of food crops. It has wide application to fruit and vegetables, rice, wheat and other grains, sugar, corn, soybeans, palm oil and cotton, all of which benefit from the nutrient’s quality enhancing properties.
18 JULY 2009
人工变贵了，肥料下跌了。
根据am research的资料，本地的人工费用增加了10%。
但肥料却因为拖后作用(lag)，下跌了。
如果以RM4400(+/-)当作是在一年里的每公顷园丘营运成本，那么，人工就是RM1210（1100 + 10%），肥料是RM1320。剩下的，就由油价和其他平分。
开发成本
ioicorp预计他们在印尼的每公顷开发成本（planting cost），可以创下令人无法置信的RM9800。
也就是说，买了地以后，ioicorp在前面4年（一直到成熟阶段），平均每年只能投入RM2500。
当然，“4年”要扣掉树苗入土时的岁数。
IOI’s planting cost is about US$2,800/ha or RM9,800/ha, which we consider low compared to the average of US$4,000/ha to US$5,000/ha (RM14,000/ha to RM17,500/ ha).
是什么造成如此低的成本，有没有把地价计算进去？
根据我的记忆，orient，ijmplnt，metrok的每公顷种植成本，若不包括地价和提炼设施，都在RM17000-RM20000。
如此低的成本，相信已经不能有灌溉系统了。
【add 1 day later】
翻种成本（replanting cost,不同于开发成本）较便宜，RM8000，假设，夷平是自己操作的。
小园主翻种成本较高，RM12000。
但肥料却因为拖后作用(lag)，下跌了。
如果以RM4400(+/-)当作是在一年里的每公顷园丘营运成本，那么，人工就是RM1210（1100 + 10%），肥料是RM1320。剩下的，就由油价和其他平分。
开发成本
ioicorp预计他们在印尼的每公顷开发成本（planting cost），可以创下令人无法置信的RM9800。
也就是说，买了地以后，ioicorp在前面4年（一直到成熟阶段），平均每年只能投入RM2500。
当然，“4年”要扣掉树苗入土时的岁数。
IOI’s planting cost is about US$2,800/ha or RM9,800/ha, which we consider low compared to the average of US$4,000/ha to US$5,000/ha (RM14,000/ha to RM17,500/ ha).
是什么造成如此低的成本，有没有把地价计算进去？
根据我的记忆，orient，ijmplnt，metrok的每公顷种植成本，若不包括地价和提炼设施，都在RM17000-RM20000。
如此低的成本，相信已经不能有灌溉系统了。
【add 1 day later】
翻种成本（replanting cost,不同于开发成本）较便宜，RM8000，假设，夷平是自己操作的。
小园主翻种成本较高，RM12000。
04 MAY 2009
borax的施肥读后感。
borax是硼砂，水溶解以后，以硼酸为主，硼酸的最主要作用是帮助开花，营养帮助则其次。
尝试找了关于“如何在油棕树施硼肥”之类的文章，找不到，因此只好从其他地方东凑西凑了。
以下是根据我的网上阅读，凭空想象出来的读后感，不一定是对的。
一般上市售的混合肥料（MPOB牌，CCM牌。。。）都有加入B，你只要直接施肥就好了，植物可以从泥土中吸收B。
如果油棕树开的花不多，不好，不完整，可以另外购买Borax（Boric Acid），以水溶解后，喷洒在开花的地方。（树如果太高就不可以。）
硼肥建议不可“单一”的施在泥土上，因为硼肥除了和Ca有排斥作用以外，它和其他种类的肥混合使用，更容易被吸收。
当然还是依循卖肥料的店商的意见较好，我是业余。
尝试找了关于“如何在油棕树施硼肥”之类的文章，找不到，因此只好从其他地方东凑西凑了。
以下是根据我的网上阅读，凭空想象出来的读后感，不一定是对的。
一般上市售的混合肥料（MPOB牌，CCM牌。。。）都有加入B，你只要直接施肥就好了，植物可以从泥土中吸收B。
如果油棕树开的花不多，不好，不完整，可以另外购买Borax（Boric Acid），以水溶解后，喷洒在开花的地方。（树如果太高就不可以。）
硼肥建议不可“单一”的施在泥土上，因为硼肥除了和Ca有排斥作用以外，它和其他种类的肥混合使用，更容易被吸收。
当然还是依循卖肥料的店商的意见较好，我是业余。
15 APRIL 2009
kulim的肥料成本
根据kulim 向osk 的透露，kulim在马来西亚园丘的2009年肥料成本，已锁定在RM73,000,000（相对于去年的RM76,000,000）。
平均价格为RM2100/每公吨。
kulim的马来西亚园丘，总面积为35,261公顷（+未成熟），也就是说，每公顷的肥料成本为RM2070。
虽然这与我之前应用的RM1000/每公顷相差了100%，但在时间的推移下，还是符合了理想值。
记得kulim已把每棵树10kg的肥料用量减低至8kg，这是由于他们善用了POME（提炼厂残余）（Source: Golden Agri/OSK Research）。
如果没有这种设施，厂商也可以把果壳当生物燃料。
平均价格为RM2100/每公吨。
kulim的马来西亚园丘，总面积为35,261公顷（+未成熟），也就是说，每公顷的肥料成本为RM2070。
虽然这与我之前应用的RM1000/每公顷相差了100%，但在时间的推移下，还是符合了理想值。
记得kulim已把每棵树10kg的肥料用量减低至8kg，这是由于他们善用了POME（提炼厂残余）（Source: Golden Agri/OSK Research）。
如果没有这种设施，厂商也可以把果壳当生物燃料。
02 APRIL 2009
从potashcorp谈起
potashcorp，一间垄断世界钾肥市场的加拿大公司。
如果Google搜索“pot”，出来的答案是google finance和yahoo finance，他的股票。
potashcorp from NYSE
有的人说，高低点的涨幅是16倍，看样子应该是18倍。图中的三角形是拆股，但不像。
重要的讯息是，油棕业是高度依赖钾肥的，来看看近期截至2009年2月的钾肥走势。
每年
每公顷油棕园的氯化钾（KCI）用量是268kg，如果以USD860计，268kg费用为USD230.48，相等于RM841.25。
但，这只是港口的价钱。
算运输费，来到本地应该要1000美元/ton，经过包装混合，卖给小园主的价钱应该是1500美元/ton。
本地著名肥料厂牌推荐的K用量是1.5倍到2倍，相等于402kg-536kg的KCI含量。
如果以2倍来做参考，以上的KCI成本是RM2934.6。
1500美元 x 兑换率 x 0.536 = RM2934.6 （每公顷的钾肥成本，如果现在吨货。）
可能肥料商担心油棕树不能吸收K，所以要你放双倍，或者是他们有他们的用意？
问题是，如果他们不照放，出来的产量很差，该怪谁？
由此可知，掉落的树叶，提炼厂残余（POME），棕果外壳，都需想办法找回Ｋ。
差别在于，超大型公司的钾肥成本应该是小园主的25%。
至于另外的N肥，P肥，走势几乎和油价一样，这里不做叙述。
每年
中国的钾（K20）进口量为5.8百万公吨，如果全数以氯化钾形式入口，入口量则是9.67百万公吨。
加拿大的钾（K20）出口量是8百万公吨，如果全数为氯化钾，则是13.33百万公吨。
上面的比较，只是想说明钾肥的“规模”，
中国的钾肥需求多来自俄罗斯。
为什么近期的钾肥上涨的这么厉害？
答案是减产，垄断。
以下是北美的KCI库存量
库存增加也不会降低售价，这个局面已经僵持很久了。
若想知道成本怎么走，油价和钾肥库存也是指标之一。
油价决定N肥和P肥的生产成本。
由于马印两国的肥料进出口数据接近“高度机密”的程度，没有官方资料，因此最简单的办法是拿OSK的报告来看，他们应该是International Fertilizer Industry的注册member。
更严格的说法是，垄断的是Canpotex，因为他才是决定价格和议价的集团。
【add hours late】
猜测和联想
USD860的港口价，相信是刻意被抬高的(由于我不知道这个标价是怎么定的)，实际上你可以在USD600拿到长期合约，合理价或许是USD300，但他们不卖你。
这种情况就像你到旅游区买纪念品，摊贩把价格拉高，慢慢的和你杀价。
第一种猜测
这股行情是被中国带头做坏的，因为中国只有两个财团（中化集团和中国农资集团）授予权利向海外购买，更早以前的财团是10个。
如果派出的代表不能完成任务，丝毫的猫腻，都会影响整个中国甚至世界的农业市场局势。
第二种猜测
商品被长期压抑了，目前才是合理价。
第三种猜测
商品热潮是种“集体意愿”的炒作。
回顾这一年，已能够证明，商品热潮造福了一群上游人士，这也可以解释为什么钾肥可以从100涨到800的原因了。
有人说经济萧条是FED做出来的，原因就是如此。
成本高了，卖价才能抬高，这是有能力决定成本的人的“集体意愿”，不管它们的产品属性相不相干。
如果这个猜测可以成立，那么USD860的钾肥不能算坏事，如果他跌回USD100才是坏事。
【end add】
如果Google搜索“pot”，出来的答案是google finance和yahoo finance，他的股票。
potashcorp from NYSE
有的人说，高低点的涨幅是16倍，看样子应该是18倍。图中的三角形是拆股，但不像。
重要的讯息是，油棕业是高度依赖钾肥的，来看看近期截至2009年2月的钾肥走势。
每年
每公顷油棕园的氯化钾（KCI）用量是268kg，如果以USD860计，268kg费用为USD230.48，相等于RM841.25。
但，这只是港口的价钱。
算运输费，来到本地应该要1000美元/ton，经过包装混合，卖给小园主的价钱应该是1500美元/ton。
本地著名肥料厂牌推荐的K用量是1.5倍到2倍，相等于402kg-536kg的KCI含量。
如果以2倍来做参考，以上的KCI成本是RM2934.6。
1500美元 x 兑换率 x 0.536 = RM2934.6 （每公顷的钾肥成本，如果现在吨货。）
可能肥料商担心油棕树不能吸收K，所以要你放双倍，或者是他们有他们的用意？
问题是，如果他们不照放，出来的产量很差，该怪谁？
由此可知，掉落的树叶，提炼厂残余（POME），棕果外壳，都需想办法找回Ｋ。
差别在于，超大型公司的钾肥成本应该是小园主的25%。
至于另外的N肥，P肥，走势几乎和油价一样，这里不做叙述。
每年
中国的钾（K20）进口量为5.8百万公吨，如果全数以氯化钾形式入口，入口量则是9.67百万公吨。
加拿大的钾（K20）出口量是8百万公吨，如果全数为氯化钾，则是13.33百万公吨。
上面的比较，只是想说明钾肥的“规模”，
中国的钾肥需求多来自俄罗斯。
为什么近期的钾肥上涨的这么厉害？
答案是减产，垄断。
以下是北美的KCI库存量
库存增加也不会降低售价，这个局面已经僵持很久了。
若想知道成本怎么走，油价和钾肥库存也是指标之一。
油价决定N肥和P肥的生产成本。
由于马印两国的肥料进出口数据接近“高度机密”的程度，没有官方资料，因此最简单的办法是拿OSK的报告来看，他们应该是International Fertilizer Industry的注册member。
更严格的说法是，垄断的是Canpotex，因为他才是决定价格和议价的集团。
【add hours late】
猜测和联想
USD860的港口价，相信是刻意被抬高的(由于我不知道这个标价是怎么定的)，实际上你可以在USD600拿到长期合约，合理价或许是USD300，但他们不卖你。
这种情况就像你到旅游区买纪念品，摊贩把价格拉高，慢慢的和你杀价。
第一种猜测
这股行情是被中国带头做坏的，因为中国只有两个财团（中化集团和中国农资集团）授予权利向海外购买，更早以前的财团是10个。
如果派出的代表不能完成任务，丝毫的猫腻，都会影响整个中国甚至世界的农业市场局势。
第二种猜测
商品被长期压抑了，目前才是合理价。
第三种猜测
商品热潮是种“集体意愿”的炒作。
回顾这一年，已能够证明，商品热潮造福了一群上游人士，这也可以解释为什么钾肥可以从100涨到800的原因了。
有人说经济萧条是FED做出来的，原因就是如此。
成本高了，卖价才能抬高，这是有能力决定成本的人的“集体意愿”，不管它们的产品属性相不相干。
如果这个猜测可以成立，那么USD860的钾肥不能算坏事，如果他跌回USD100才是坏事。
【end add】
19 MARCH 2009
Still fertile - Chemical Company of Malaysia has been enjoying a fine run of late. Will the good times last?
AsiaViews, Edition: 52/V/Jan/2009
IT HAS BEEN A GOOD YEAR THUS far for Chemical Company of Malaysia Bhd (CCM), driven by strong growth from its fertilizer division. However, will the good times last? With 80% of its fertiliser products driven by the oil palm sector, the health of this sector going forward is crucial to the division and the prospect of the group as a whole. The oil palm sector is now going through challenging times as crude palm oil (CPO) prices are now in a cyclical downturn. However, analysts say that the adverse impact to CCM is still expected to be manageable, given the well-diversified business model of the group.
A leading industrial conglomerate
The group has been in business for a long time, to say the least. CCM was incorporated as Chemical Company of Malaysia in 1963 by Imperial Chemical Company Plc (ICI) of the United Kingdom. It was initially set up to manufacture chlor-alkali products and high-grade compound fertilizers. In 1995, the company broadened its horizon to include pharmaceuticals and hospital services. At present, its main core businesses are categorized into three main divisions, namely,
(i) fertilisers,
(ii) chemicals, and
(iii) pharmaceuticals
CCM’s involvement in chemicals is via its 80%-owned subsidiary CCM Chemicals Sdn Bhd (CCMC). The division’s principal activities include the manufacture and marketing of chlor-alkali and other chemical products with three manufacturing facilities located in Shah Alam, Port Klang and Pasir Gudang, producing and formulating various chemical products. The two major products produced by CCMC are chlorine and caustic soda.
Chlorine products are typically used for water treatment and in plastic manufacturing while caustic soda is used in the manufacture of soap powder, alumina, detergents and bleaching products as well as in the pulp and paper industry. In 2007, the chemicals division contributed around 32.7% of group revenue. Riding on its established position in Malaysia, CCMC is progressively penetrating the Asean market by setting up offices in Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines.
The group’s pharmaceuticals division, on the other hand, comprises several subsidiaries such as CCM Pharma Sdn Bhd, UPHA Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Sdn Bhd and CCM Duopharma. This division is mainly involved in manufacturing and marketing pharmaceutical and healthcare products. Around 80% of its pharmaceutical products are ethical products and the remaining 20%, OTC products. Currently, the division exports to more than 20 countries worldwide, with Asian countries such as Cambodia, Indonesia, Hong Kong and Singapore being the major export markets. In 2007, the pharmaceutical division contributed 15.6% to group revenue.
The fertilizer division, which is CCM’s biggest revenue contributor, contributed around 51.9% of the group’s revenue in 2007. It is involved in this business segment via its 50.1%-owned CCM Fertilizers Sdn Bhd (CCMF), which is the largest manufacturer and trader of fertilizers in Malaysia with a 30% share of the local market. It has been reported that CCMF is the only manufacturer of compound fertilizers in the country. At present, CCMF has only one fully operated plant in Shah Alam with an annual rated capacity of 280,000 tons. However, it has three plants under construction currently in Bintulu, Medan and Lahad Datu. Upon completion, CCMF will have a combined manufacturing capacity of 670,000 tons of fertilizers per annum, making it one of the largest producers of compound fertilizers in Asean.
Prospects generally bright
According to the Department of Statistics, between 2003 and 2007, the sales value of chemicals in the country increased at an average annual rate of 20.5% to RM157.9 billion in 2007. Over the same period, the annual export value of chemicals rose 15.3% to RM36.4 billion in 2007. CCM’s pharmaceutical division is expected to grow steadily, supported by rising healthcare expenditure and growing awareness of healthcare and disease prevention among the population. The prospect of fertilizer usage is said to be sustainable.
According to the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA), Malaysia is ranked as the world’s 10th largest fertilizer consumer, accounting for around 1.1% of the world’s total consumption in 2006. Not surprisingly, around 72% of the fertilizer consumption in Malaysia is used by the oil palm sector followed by other agriculture sectors such as rice and fruits and vegetable crops, which accounted for around 8% and 2.8% of total consumption respectively. In 2006, potassium fertilizer was the most commonly used fertilizer in Malaysia, making up around 56% of the total consumption followed by nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer, which made up another 30% and 13.6% of the total consumption respectively. Based on the latest data, fertilizer consumption in Malaysia grew at around 8.4% p.a. between 1997 and 2006.
Given that all its divisions are one of the largest players in their respective segments with a dominant market share, local research house OSK Research believes that CCM will remain a market leader in its businesses given its strong competitive advantage and vast experience and in-depth knowledge. It adds that a strong market position means CCM has strong bargaining power in terms of securing raw materials, selling prices and economies of scale. The emergence of Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB) as the group’s largest shareholder has also strengthened its profile, particularly its fertilizer division, given PNB’s substantial shareholdings in plantation estates in Malaysia.
… but affected now by CPO price down-cycle
However, its profitable fertilizer division is under threat from the downtrend in CPO prices at the moment. OSK Research says that farmers generally buy fertilizers on credit and repay only when their harvest is sold. Hence, the price those farmers expect to receive for their harvest influences their decision to invest in fertilizers to increase yield and improve crop quality. Studies have apparently shown that the prices of agricultural commodities have a greater influence on farmers’ decision to spend on fertilizers than do the price of fertilizers themselves.
The rising market price of agricultural commodities tends to push up fertilizer prices rather than the contrary (refer Chart 5) where fertilizer prices move in tandem with agricultural commodity prices but with a time lag. This has been proven by the recent rise in food/soft commodities prices due to a global food shortage, which has pushed fertilizer prices to an all-time high. Falling CPO prices mean oil palm planters are likely to scale back their purchases of fertilizers going forward.
Expecting lower growth going forward
In Malaysia, firm CPO prices have been the main driver for the demand of premium fertilisers, namely, compound fertilizers, as smallholders and oil palm plantations attempt to raise yields to capitalize on the crop’s high prices. As a result, compound fertilizer sales in Malaysia generally move in tandem with CPO price movements, although with some time lag. In contrast, oil palm planters tend to switch to cheaper and lower quality fertilizer, such as straight and mixed fertilizer, when CPO prices are low, as a cost-cutting measure, considering that fertilizer cost accounts for around 30% to 40% of total planting and maintenance cost. In a worst-case scenario, OSK Research says it does not rule out the likelihood that oil palm planters will either defer or cancel their fertilizer purchases, which would hurt CCM’s earnings.
Note that although timely application of the right fertilizer is still important for yield, the research house believes that planters are still likely to cut their fertilizer application for the next few quarters based on the following two possible reasons.
Firstly, the dramatic drop in CPO prices over a very short period is considered the worst the players have seen, catching them unprepared in adjusting their production costs and maintaining margins. Although the current CPO price of around RM1,500/ton is still well above the lowest price in 2001 of RM750/ton, production costs have over the years increased significantly as well. This has caused planters to opt to cut their fertilizer cost by reducing fertilizer application since this is seen as the easier way to cut production cost.
Secondly, given the strong CPO prices from 2006 up to earlier this year, planters have increased their fertilizer application quite significantly over this period to capitalize on the high CPO prices, which has resulted in nutrient-rich soil. In the event the planters decide to cut their fertilizer application significantly for the next few quarters, the nutrients in the soil are still seen as sufficient to sustain the growth of oil palm trees for the next few months with a minimal impact on yield.
Under such circumstances, OSK Research has reduced its average compound fertilizer prices for 2009 from RM1,800 per ton to RM1,400 per ton. The research house has also lowered its forecast capacity utilization rate assumption for CCM in 2009 from 100% to 80% after factoring in a slowdown in demand for compound fertilizer. It was reported that fertilizer consumption in Malaysia dropped by around 23% from 1998 to 2001 during the previous down-cycle in CPO prices.
Still solid nonetheless
Even if the immediate outlook of its fertilizer division seems gloomy, OSK Research believes that CCM group’s earnings as a whole will still be cushioned by its chemicals division, mainly driven by a newly acquired subsidiary, Innovative Group. It also expects the group’s pharmaceutical division to remain resilient despite the economic slowdown, given the nature of its business even though the division’s 2008 earnings has been somewhat disappointing due to margins contraction driven by higher material and production costs. However, the division’s margins are expected to recover in 1QFY09 as most of its raw material prices have come down from their peak in tandem with receding oil prices.
Conclusion
Although there might be some concerns over the liquidity of CCM shares, OSK Research believes that CCM is still a good choice for long-term investors. It adds that the group has an attractive dividend payout guideline of 75% of its net profit, which is sustainable given that it had historically managed to pay its dividends as guided. The research house has a ‘BUY’ rating on CCM with a fair value of RM2.78.
Malaysian Business, 01 January 2009
blogger remark : the target price was downgraded to RM2.24 (neutral) ,on February 26, 2009
IT HAS BEEN A GOOD YEAR THUS far for Chemical Company of Malaysia Bhd (CCM), driven by strong growth from its fertilizer division. However, will the good times last? With 80% of its fertiliser products driven by the oil palm sector, the health of this sector going forward is crucial to the division and the prospect of the group as a whole. The oil palm sector is now going through challenging times as crude palm oil (CPO) prices are now in a cyclical downturn. However, analysts say that the adverse impact to CCM is still expected to be manageable, given the well-diversified business model of the group.
A leading industrial conglomerate
The group has been in business for a long time, to say the least. CCM was incorporated as Chemical Company of Malaysia in 1963 by Imperial Chemical Company Plc (ICI) of the United Kingdom. It was initially set up to manufacture chlor-alkali products and high-grade compound fertilizers. In 1995, the company broadened its horizon to include pharmaceuticals and hospital services. At present, its main core businesses are categorized into three main divisions, namely,
(i) fertilisers,
(ii) chemicals, and
(iii) pharmaceuticals
CCM’s involvement in chemicals is via its 80%-owned subsidiary CCM Chemicals Sdn Bhd (CCMC). The division’s principal activities include the manufacture and marketing of chlor-alkali and other chemical products with three manufacturing facilities located in Shah Alam, Port Klang and Pasir Gudang, producing and formulating various chemical products. The two major products produced by CCMC are chlorine and caustic soda.
Chlorine products are typically used for water treatment and in plastic manufacturing while caustic soda is used in the manufacture of soap powder, alumina, detergents and bleaching products as well as in the pulp and paper industry. In 2007, the chemicals division contributed around 32.7% of group revenue. Riding on its established position in Malaysia, CCMC is progressively penetrating the Asean market by setting up offices in Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines.
The group’s pharmaceuticals division, on the other hand, comprises several subsidiaries such as CCM Pharma Sdn Bhd, UPHA Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Sdn Bhd and CCM Duopharma. This division is mainly involved in manufacturing and marketing pharmaceutical and healthcare products. Around 80% of its pharmaceutical products are ethical products and the remaining 20%, OTC products. Currently, the division exports to more than 20 countries worldwide, with Asian countries such as Cambodia, Indonesia, Hong Kong and Singapore being the major export markets. In 2007, the pharmaceutical division contributed 15.6% to group revenue.
The fertilizer division, which is CCM’s biggest revenue contributor, contributed around 51.9% of the group’s revenue in 2007. It is involved in this business segment via its 50.1%-owned CCM Fertilizers Sdn Bhd (CCMF), which is the largest manufacturer and trader of fertilizers in Malaysia with a 30% share of the local market. It has been reported that CCMF is the only manufacturer of compound fertilizers in the country. At present, CCMF has only one fully operated plant in Shah Alam with an annual rated capacity of 280,000 tons. However, it has three plants under construction currently in Bintulu, Medan and Lahad Datu. Upon completion, CCMF will have a combined manufacturing capacity of 670,000 tons of fertilizers per annum, making it one of the largest producers of compound fertilizers in Asean.
Prospects generally bright
According to the Department of Statistics, between 2003 and 2007, the sales value of chemicals in the country increased at an average annual rate of 20.5% to RM157.9 billion in 2007. Over the same period, the annual export value of chemicals rose 15.3% to RM36.4 billion in 2007. CCM’s pharmaceutical division is expected to grow steadily, supported by rising healthcare expenditure and growing awareness of healthcare and disease prevention among the population. The prospect of fertilizer usage is said to be sustainable.
According to the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA), Malaysia is ranked as the world’s 10th largest fertilizer consumer, accounting for around 1.1% of the world’s total consumption in 2006. Not surprisingly, around 72% of the fertilizer consumption in Malaysia is used by the oil palm sector followed by other agriculture sectors such as rice and fruits and vegetable crops, which accounted for around 8% and 2.8% of total consumption respectively. In 2006, potassium fertilizer was the most commonly used fertilizer in Malaysia, making up around 56% of the total consumption followed by nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer, which made up another 30% and 13.6% of the total consumption respectively. Based on the latest data, fertilizer consumption in Malaysia grew at around 8.4% p.a. between 1997 and 2006.
Given that all its divisions are one of the largest players in their respective segments with a dominant market share, local research house OSK Research believes that CCM will remain a market leader in its businesses given its strong competitive advantage and vast experience and in-depth knowledge. It adds that a strong market position means CCM has strong bargaining power in terms of securing raw materials, selling prices and economies of scale. The emergence of Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB) as the group’s largest shareholder has also strengthened its profile, particularly its fertilizer division, given PNB’s substantial shareholdings in plantation estates in Malaysia.
… but affected now by CPO price down-cycle
However, its profitable fertilizer division is under threat from the downtrend in CPO prices at the moment. OSK Research says that farmers generally buy fertilizers on credit and repay only when their harvest is sold. Hence, the price those farmers expect to receive for their harvest influences their decision to invest in fertilizers to increase yield and improve crop quality. Studies have apparently shown that the prices of agricultural commodities have a greater influence on farmers’ decision to spend on fertilizers than do the price of fertilizers themselves.
The rising market price of agricultural commodities tends to push up fertilizer prices rather than the contrary (refer Chart 5) where fertilizer prices move in tandem with agricultural commodity prices but with a time lag. This has been proven by the recent rise in food/soft commodities prices due to a global food shortage, which has pushed fertilizer prices to an all-time high. Falling CPO prices mean oil palm planters are likely to scale back their purchases of fertilizers going forward.
Expecting lower growth going forward
In Malaysia, firm CPO prices have been the main driver for the demand of premium fertilisers, namely, compound fertilizers, as smallholders and oil palm plantations attempt to raise yields to capitalize on the crop’s high prices. As a result, compound fertilizer sales in Malaysia generally move in tandem with CPO price movements, although with some time lag. In contrast, oil palm planters tend to switch to cheaper and lower quality fertilizer, such as straight and mixed fertilizer, when CPO prices are low, as a cost-cutting measure, considering that fertilizer cost accounts for around 30% to 40% of total planting and maintenance cost. In a worst-case scenario, OSK Research says it does not rule out the likelihood that oil palm planters will either defer or cancel their fertilizer purchases, which would hurt CCM’s earnings.
Note that although timely application of the right fertilizer is still important for yield, the research house believes that planters are still likely to cut their fertilizer application for the next few quarters based on the following two possible reasons.
Firstly, the dramatic drop in CPO prices over a very short period is considered the worst the players have seen, catching them unprepared in adjusting their production costs and maintaining margins. Although the current CPO price of around RM1,500/ton is still well above the lowest price in 2001 of RM750/ton, production costs have over the years increased significantly as well. This has caused planters to opt to cut their fertilizer cost by reducing fertilizer application since this is seen as the easier way to cut production cost.
Secondly, given the strong CPO prices from 2006 up to earlier this year, planters have increased their fertilizer application quite significantly over this period to capitalize on the high CPO prices, which has resulted in nutrient-rich soil. In the event the planters decide to cut their fertilizer application significantly for the next few quarters, the nutrients in the soil are still seen as sufficient to sustain the growth of oil palm trees for the next few months with a minimal impact on yield.
Under such circumstances, OSK Research has reduced its average compound fertilizer prices for 2009 from RM1,800 per ton to RM1,400 per ton. The research house has also lowered its forecast capacity utilization rate assumption for CCM in 2009 from 100% to 80% after factoring in a slowdown in demand for compound fertilizer. It was reported that fertilizer consumption in Malaysia dropped by around 23% from 1998 to 2001 during the previous down-cycle in CPO prices.
Still solid nonetheless
Even if the immediate outlook of its fertilizer division seems gloomy, OSK Research believes that CCM group’s earnings as a whole will still be cushioned by its chemicals division, mainly driven by a newly acquired subsidiary, Innovative Group. It also expects the group’s pharmaceutical division to remain resilient despite the economic slowdown, given the nature of its business even though the division’s 2008 earnings has been somewhat disappointing due to margins contraction driven by higher material and production costs. However, the division’s margins are expected to recover in 1QFY09 as most of its raw material prices have come down from their peak in tandem with receding oil prices.
Conclusion
Although there might be some concerns over the liquidity of CCM shares, OSK Research believes that CCM is still a good choice for long-term investors. It adds that the group has an attractive dividend payout guideline of 75% of its net profit, which is sustainable given that it had historically managed to pay its dividends as guided. The research house has a ‘BUY’ rating on CCM with a fair value of RM2.78.
Malaysian Business, 01 January 2009
blogger remark : the target price was downgraded to RM2.24 (neutral) ,on February 26, 2009
13 MARCH 2009
肥料成本
在再谈停止施肥一文中曾经提到，每公顷的施肥成本为RM1000，这是很有必要再说明的，如果不说明，业者就要心里咒骂了，因为对他们来说，每公顷放RM4000肥都有可能，在去年高峰季的时候。
1.计算是从上市公司成本作出的，这也是从每吨CPO成本中抽25%来做benchmark的。
2.这是假设上市公司自己调配的肥料成本，且是根据提半年到一年前的锁定成本(lock price)，我们就姑且认定他是4Q07-1Q08的行情。
以wilmar为例，他虽然有十几-几十万公顷种植，但他的自产的肥料就足够给自己一半了。我不懂他们是怎么施肥的，但我想他们是自己调配的。
3. urea-dap-mop + 微量元素如borax（硼砂）,硫酸镁（泻药），想象如果我们用一年前的价钱“散买”，自己调配，可以省下多少钱？
4. 大公司把不要的油棕残余，和鸡粪混合，发酵分解成有机肥。如果用得好，效果不差化肥。有机肥含有17种化学成分，可和化肥互补长短。火山灰(valcano ash)也能加强在肥料里。
5. 很可能是肥料商要你多放的，因为没试过谁都不知道。我们以某知名厂牌为例，他建议的钾肥已经超出了specification的100%。
一棵树所需要的营养，大致上会因为地理环境和土壤环境不同而改变。
拿标准答案来讲，一棵成年树的营养大致如下
N 1.2kg
P2O5 0.6kg
K2O 1.2kg
MgO 0.17kg
sulfur (S) 0.3kg
CaCO3(Ca) 无法确认
硼砂 0.1kg
如果Ammonium Sulphate取代urea，sulfur应该可以减少。
CaCO3有很多很多替代品，只要是石灰都可替代，复合肥SSP也可以替代。
最近的肥料价格
dap 350美元/ton ， 18%N 46%P
urea 300美元/ton, 46%N ，印尼有供应，实际价格更低。
mop 860美元/ton 60%K ，最近起很厉害，上个月没有这么贵。
如果把上面三个加在一起，得三吨肥，1510美元，NPK 21% 16% 18% ，相当于一包包的市售化肥成分，21%N有点过量，只是简单计算不于计较。
如果想调出一棵油棕树的营养，建议的混合量为：
dap 1.3kg
urea 2.1kg
MOP/KCI 2kg
即可得到一棵成年树的营养。
注意，DAP为复合肥。这里没有考虑追加20%以提升产量的特殊情况
每棵树的费用为RM10，如果不考虑微量元素和有机肥。
值得一提的是，K占了NPK的60%成本，如果在2007年可没有这么贵。
所以，低成本的公司的施肥成本，是可以控制在RM1000/ha以下的。
如果1ha有133树，即，目前1ha的NPK成本为RM1330。
这个数字是随机的，因为树的高矮大小，品种，父母起源都能改变密度的决策，有的143棵。
如果你要拿一些小公司来做例子，RM1000是不可能的。因为有的上市公司喜欢把estate“外包”给related party，他们怎么吃就不清楚了。
不过，自行施肥是相当挑战的，必须观察湿度，树外观，npk也要分时段放，不能一次全放。“一次全放”指的不是一年放一次，而是NPK和mg四者的施肥时机。
一般上，NK放在一起能保持ion的电子中和，之后才是放P。
解决了电子中和，还要顾及酸碱度和盐分。
但所知有限，实在不敢多说。
http://www.agricultureinformation.com/forums/questions-answers/12541-oil-palm-cultivation.html
1.计算是从上市公司成本作出的，这也是从每吨CPO成本中抽25%来做benchmark的。
2.这是假设上市公司自己调配的肥料成本，且是根据提半年到一年前的锁定成本(lock price)，我们就姑且认定他是4Q07-1Q08的行情。
以wilmar为例，他虽然有十几-几十万公顷种植，但他的自产的肥料就足够给自己一半了。我不懂他们是怎么施肥的，但我想他们是自己调配的。
3. urea-dap-mop + 微量元素如borax（硼砂）,硫酸镁（泻药），想象如果我们用一年前的价钱“散买”，自己调配，可以省下多少钱？
4. 大公司把不要的油棕残余，和鸡粪混合，发酵分解成有机肥。如果用得好，效果不差化肥。有机肥含有17种化学成分，可和化肥互补长短。火山灰(valcano ash)也能加强在肥料里。
5. 很可能是肥料商要你多放的，因为没试过谁都不知道。我们以某知名厂牌为例，他建议的钾肥已经超出了specification的100%。
一棵树所需要的营养，大致上会因为地理环境和土壤环境不同而改变。
拿标准答案来讲，一棵成年树的营养大致如下
N 1.2kg
P2O5 0.6kg
K2O 1.2kg
MgO 0.17kg
sulfur (S) 0.3kg
CaCO3(Ca) 无法确认
硼砂 0.1kg
如果Ammonium Sulphate取代urea，sulfur应该可以减少。
CaCO3有很多很多替代品，只要是石灰都可替代，复合肥SSP也可以替代。
最近的肥料价格
dap 350美元/ton ， 18%N 46%P
urea 300美元/ton, 46%N ，印尼有供应，实际价格更低。
mop 860美元/ton 60%K ，最近起很厉害，上个月没有这么贵。
如果把上面三个加在一起，得三吨肥，1510美元，NPK 21% 16% 18% ，相当于一包包的市售化肥成分，21%N有点过量，只是简单计算不于计较。
如果想调出一棵油棕树的营养，建议的混合量为：
dap 1.3kg
urea 2.1kg
MOP/KCI 2kg
即可得到一棵成年树的营养。
注意，DAP为复合肥。这里没有考虑追加20%以提升产量的特殊情况
每棵树的费用为RM10，如果不考虑微量元素和有机肥。
值得一提的是，K占了NPK的60%成本，如果在2007年可没有这么贵。
所以，低成本的公司的施肥成本，是可以控制在RM1000/ha以下的。
如果1ha有133树，即，目前1ha的NPK成本为RM1330。
这个数字是随机的，因为树的高矮大小，品种，父母起源都能改变密度的决策，有的143棵。
如果你要拿一些小公司来做例子，RM1000是不可能的。因为有的上市公司喜欢把estate“外包”给related party，他们怎么吃就不清楚了。
不过，自行施肥是相当挑战的，必须观察湿度，树外观，npk也要分时段放，不能一次全放。“一次全放”指的不是一年放一次，而是NPK和mg四者的施肥时机。
一般上，NK放在一起能保持ion的电子中和，之后才是放P。
解决了电子中和，还要顾及酸碱度和盐分。
但所知有限，实在不敢多说。
http://www.agricultureinformation.com/forums/questions-answers/12541-oil-palm-cultivation.html
04 FEBRUARY 2009
翻种过程和豆科植物
zero burning的三种翻种机器是【EnviroMulcher (tm) ，MountainGoat (tm)，Beaver (tm)】。
这三种机器各有优缺点，谁好谁坏就不知道了。
在翻种过程里，这些机器都具有把根挖起，把树打成碎片，填补根洞，喷洒碎片将泥土覆盖的功用。
翻种的头一年，油棕树是不必放肥的，因为这些油棕碎片提供了“超额”的营养，在每公顷85tons的碎片中，有577kg N, 50kg P, 1255kg K and 141kg Mg 。
但是，这些营养很容易流失，尤其N是幼苗较偏倚的成长元素，极容易被水带走。因此，一些豆科植物必须扮演“固氮”角色。 【Pueraria phaseoloides(tropical kudzu), Calopogonium mucunoides, Calopogonium caeruleum, Centrosema pubescens, and Mucuna bracteata 】
一般上，这些豆科植物可混合种植，他们除了可以固氮外，也可以制成动物饲料。到了油棕树成熟时，这些豆科植物就会淘汰，原因相信是怕抢走油棕树的营养。
因为不清楚以上5种豆科是不是都有共同特性，因此强调了“一般上”。
部分资料参考自article of 【Palm pulverisation in sustainable oil palm replanting】
下图的作物可能是豆科。
【edit 1 month later】
根据mpob的研究，每吨的树叶含有的n，p，k，mg营养是7.5kg,105kg(???)，9.81kg，2.79kg mg。
这个成分和上述的“干燥碎片”不同。
奇怪的是1吨重的叶子的磷含量>85吨的干燥碎片的磷含量？
那些修剪下来的树叶也可以当作有机肥来处理。
【end of edit】
【edit 1 month later】
另一个来源说法是，每公顷的estate能够修剪出14.75tons的叶子。
n，p，k，mg含量是136kg, 10.3kg, 183kg, 16.5kg
我相信这个才是对的。
[source]
【end of edit】
这三种机器各有优缺点，谁好谁坏就不知道了。
在翻种过程里，这些机器都具有把根挖起，把树打成碎片，填补根洞，喷洒碎片将泥土覆盖的功用。
翻种的头一年，油棕树是不必放肥的，因为这些油棕碎片提供了“超额”的营养，在每公顷85tons的碎片中，有577kg N, 50kg P, 1255kg K and 141kg Mg 。
但是，这些营养很容易流失，尤其N是幼苗较偏倚的成长元素，极容易被水带走。因此，一些豆科植物必须扮演“固氮”角色。 【Pueraria phaseoloides(tropical kudzu), Calopogonium mucunoides, Calopogonium caeruleum, Centrosema pubescens, and Mucuna bracteata 】
一般上，这些豆科植物可混合种植，他们除了可以固氮外，也可以制成动物饲料。到了油棕树成熟时，这些豆科植物就会淘汰，原因相信是怕抢走油棕树的营养。
因为不清楚以上5种豆科是不是都有共同特性，因此强调了“一般上”。
部分资料参考自article of 【Palm pulverisation in sustainable oil palm replanting】
下图的作物可能是豆科。
【edit 1 month later】
根据mpob的研究，每吨的树叶含有的n，p，k，mg营养是7.5kg,105kg(???)，9.81kg，2.79kg mg。
这个成分和上述的“干燥碎片”不同。
奇怪的是1吨重的叶子的磷含量>85吨的干燥碎片的磷含量？
那些修剪下来的树叶也可以当作有机肥来处理。
【end of edit】
【edit 1 month later】
另一个来源说法是，每公顷的estate能够修剪出14.75tons的叶子。
n，p，k，mg含量是136kg, 10.3kg, 183kg, 16.5kg
我相信这个才是对的。
[source]
【end of edit】
19 JANUARY 2009
再谈停止施肥
上次在这里提出了停止施肥的疑问，结论不尽不实，因此想再谈停止施肥。
Zone A - Too low fertilizers application which results in nutrient deficiencies and lower yields
Zone B - Adequate fertilizers application results in maximum efficiency and the highest profitability.
Zone C - Over fertilization where yield is not affected but fertilizers are wasted.
Zone D - Excessive fertilizers application which results in decreased yields, toxicities and salinity damages
(source: 某肥料厂牌网页，不想替他打广告。)
施肥过量，产量会停滞，使泥土变酸性，严重点会中毒。
一般上本地的肥料用语都是以"公斤"计算的，我实在不知道这是什么东西，如果没有错，应该是德国公司Behn Meyer，生产的"狮马"油棕肥。虽然felda拥有30%的Behn Meyer(M)股权，但其实这家外国公司并没有给felda带来丰厚的盈利。
本地大公司都会聘请自己的agronomist, 也不会直接购买混合好的"牌子"，实在不懂为什么分析员喜欢用"kg"来评估。
根据报告，如果把10kg的施肥量减少到8kg，产量会逐年减少2%。
如果完全停止施肥，一年到两年内完全停产。
比较两者，这些大公司不可能停止施肥，是少放，不是停放。
如果从8kg再度减少到6kg，产量相信就会剧减，所以7.5kg-8kg是一个limit。
计算。
减少20%施肥量，每公顷可省下RM200.
产量减少相等于，80kg的cpo+10kg的pko = 当作是90kg cpo ， 90kg x RM1.8 = RM162.
从以上计算可以证明，不少的公司没有响应"减产"计划。如果他们forward sales出好的价钱，又拥有良好的产量，减少施肥是会剥夺利益的。
【edit on 20 jan 2009】
由于原来的计算不恰当，因此我特地放了删除线。
这是因为肥料是estate cost，cpo是milling cost，pko是after-milling cost，三者是没有关联的。
因此在计算肥料能省多少时，只要考虑FFB流失多少就行了。
从新计算。
减少20%施肥量，每公顷可省下RM200.
产量减少相等于400kg的FFB ， 400kg x RM0.32 = RM128.
从以上计算可以证明，年青的树不应该响应"减产"计划。如果他们forward sales出好的价钱，又拥有良好的产量，减少施肥是会剥夺利益的。
况且国内肥料价格已经跌了30%以上(但还是比2008年首半年高)，这比官方制定的降15%更高（或许第六任首相认为这是他的功劳)。
零售价降幅则没有30%。
【end of edit】
相信种植公司已经在去年第三季(9M,2008Y)，大量购买或锁定了肥料(这里)，因此他们有本钱观望，如果小园主也跟进行列，是不恰当的。相信当小园主看见没有人收棕果时，必定会淘汰部分的老果园，但大公司不会这么情绪化，他们比较能忍。
Zone A - Too low fertilizers application which results in nutrient deficiencies and lower yields
Zone B - Adequate fertilizers application results in maximum efficiency and the highest profitability.
Zone C - Over fertilization where yield is not affected but fertilizers are wasted.
Zone D - Excessive fertilizers application which results in decreased yields, toxicities and salinity damages
(source: 某肥料厂牌网页，不想替他打广告。)
施肥过量，产量会停滞，使泥土变酸性，严重点会中毒。
一般上本地的肥料用语都是以"公斤"计算的，我实在不知道这是什么东西，如果没有错，应该是德国公司Behn Meyer，生产的"狮马"油棕肥。虽然felda拥有30%的Behn Meyer(M)股权，但其实这家外国公司并没有给felda带来丰厚的盈利。
本地大公司都会聘请自己的agronomist, 也不会直接购买混合好的"牌子"，实在不懂为什么分析员喜欢用"kg"来评估。
根据报告，如果把10kg的施肥量减少到8kg，产量会逐年减少2%。
如果完全停止施肥，一年到两年内完全停产。
比较两者，这些大公司不可能停止施肥，是少放，不是停放。
如果从8kg再度减少到6kg，产量相信就会剧减，所以7.5kg-8kg是一个limit。
减少20%施肥量，每公顷可省下RM200.
产量减少相等于，80kg的cpo+10kg的pko = 当作是90kg cpo ， 90kg x RM1.8 = RM162.
从以上计算可以证明，不少的公司没有响应"减产"计划。如果他们forward sales出好的价钱，又拥有良好的产量，减少施肥是会剥夺利益的。
【edit on 20 jan 2009】
由于原来的计算不恰当，因此我特地放了删除线。
这是因为肥料是estate cost，cpo是milling cost，pko是after-milling cost，三者是没有关联的。
因此在计算肥料能省多少时，只要考虑FFB流失多少就行了。
从新计算。
减少20%施肥量，每公顷可省下RM200.
产量减少相等于400kg的FFB ， 400kg x RM0.32 = RM128.
从以上计算可以证明，年青的树不应该响应"减产"计划。如果他们forward sales出好的价钱，又拥有良好的产量，减少施肥是会剥夺利益的。
况且国内肥料价格已经跌了30%以上(但还是比2008年首半年高)，这比官方制定的降15%更高（或许第六任首相认为这是他的功劳)。
零售价降幅则没有30%。
【end of edit】
相信种植公司已经在去年第三季(9M,2008Y)，大量购买或锁定了肥料(这里)，因此他们有本钱观望，如果小园主也跟进行列，是不恰当的。相信当小园主看见没有人收棕果时，必定会淘汰部分的老果园，但大公司不会这么情绪化，他们比较能忍。
22 DECEMBER 2008
17 DECEMBER 2008
停止肥料的疑问
ahmad zubir为首的一些人预测cpo有望回到RM2000-RM2500，这是不可实现的，中东的海市蜃楼的迹象已日益明显，即使油价能回到60美元，那么cpo的breakeven也不过是RM1600，这要怎么实现RM2000的cpo？
在利好方面，大型种植公司的成本有望回到RM900。但是，成本越低，cpo下跌空间越大。
如果连大型种植公司都停止放肥，就可以预警，半年到一年内的局势不会好转。
我们假设，半年的每公顷肥料成本是RM1000。
如果半年停止放肥，每公顷流失的cpo产量是320KG，这是根据“直线式”方式，“逐月”减产所计算出来的。
产量损失：0.32 x RM1600 = RM512。
如果半年内cpo price都保持在RM1600，停放肥可省下RM488。
【edit on 2008年12月19】
我们假设，半年的每公顷肥料成本是RM1000。
如果半年停止放肥，每公顷流失的cpo产量是640KG，这是根据“直线式”方式，“逐月”减产所计算出来的。
产量损失：0.64 x RM1600 = RM1024。
如果半年内cpo price都保持在RM1600，停放肥不可省下开销。
上图所示的例子是，前半年停止施肥，产量逐步流失。施肥后的半年，产量逐渐恢复。
所以正确cpo流失应是640kg（红色区），不是320kg，更正。
【end of edit】
对植物营养而言，施肥量和产量是曲线关系，如果画成图表(X-axis=肥料，Y-axis=产量)，他是一个倒立的U，如果肥料过量，产量减少到0。放肥的意义是，只要marginal fertilizer cost < marginal production，那么肥料就该放。
停放和少放，在意义上是不同的。
如果cpo达到RM4000，那么一棵油棕树放15kg的肥料是不亏本的，如果cpo是RM1600，那么该放多少kg肥料才是恰当的？
上市公司的平均施肥量是10kg。
无论如何，都不应该是停放。
以上的举例只是博主个人疑问，不具任何专业意见，博主和普通人一样，不看科研报告。
在利好方面，大型种植公司的成本有望回到RM900。但是，成本越低，cpo下跌空间越大。
如果连大型种植公司都停止放肥，就可以预警，半年到一年内的局势不会好转。
如果半年停止放肥，每公顷流失的cpo产量是320KG，这是根据“直线式”方式，“逐月”减产所计算出来的。
产量损失：0.32 x RM1600 = RM512。
如果半年内cpo price都保持在RM1600，停放肥可省下RM488。
【edit on 2008年12月19】
我们假设，半年的每公顷肥料成本是RM1000。
如果半年停止放肥，每公顷流失的cpo产量是640KG，这是根据“直线式”方式，“逐月”减产所计算出来的。
产量损失：0.64 x RM1600 = RM1024。
如果半年内cpo price都保持在RM1600，停放肥不可省下开销。
上图所示的例子是，前半年停止施肥，产量逐步流失。施肥后的半年，产量逐渐恢复。
所以正确cpo流失应是640kg（红色区），不是320kg，更正。
【end of edit】
对植物营养而言，施肥量和产量是曲线关系，如果画成图表(X-axis=肥料，Y-axis=产量)，他是一个倒立的U，如果肥料过量，产量减少到0。放肥的意义是，只要marginal fertilizer cost < marginal production，那么肥料就该放。
停放和少放，在意义上是不同的。
如果cpo达到RM4000，那么一棵油棕树放15kg的肥料是不亏本的，如果cpo是RM1600，那么该放多少kg肥料才是恰当的？
上市公司的平均施肥量是10kg。
无论如何，都不应该是停放。
以上的举例只是博主个人疑问，不具任何专业意见，博主和普通人一样，不看科研报告。
15 OCTOBER 2008
化肥市场概述(不时整理中)
陆陆续续收集了有关化肥的资料，但是没时间整理出一套完整的系统，如果要求这么严格，那么永远都不能写blog了，因此，只好从简了。
以下资料来源太广，因此不注明出处，其中不少自己的描述，不排除有错处。
氮肥
氮肥的全球供应来源分布很广，这是因为氮是构成自然界的重要元素，虽然氮随处可见(空气中)，但是植物并不能吸收**，城市化的影响，土壤氮流失很快，因此工业生产氮肥的需求是迫切的。
**除了少数具有固氮作用(Nitrogen fixation)的农作物。
在所有氮肥产品中，尿素（UREA，CO(NH2)2）是氮含量（46%）最高的化肥，因此尿素的市场价格主导了氮肥市场。
被利用在工业炸药的硝酸铵含氮元素为35%（简称硝铵，NH4NO3），也是主要的氮肥，他和尿素价格有同步系数。
氨（NH3，阿摩尼亚），形态多变，溶于水的氨是氨水（铵，NH4+），低温处理的氨是液氨（液态，无水氨），无论他怎么复杂，总括一句就是他是氮肥原料。阿摩尼亚和二氧化碳在加热情况下可生产出尿素，值得一提的是，尿素的生产成本的50%-70%来自能源，不管是用电力，天然气，或煤炭，这些热能成本是的不能避免的。因此，氮肥的价格是和原油同步的，但是原油暴跌并不会马上影响氮肥走势，这是因为商家避免亏损。
以马化学（ccm）为例，马化学的阿摩尼亚是从印尼进口的。
较普遍期货代号
UREA,46%nitrogen
UAN,32%nitrogen
UREA价格可参考印度Yuzhnyy和Baltic港口价格
2008-oct-16记录
2008-oct-9, urea weekly价格是 520美元/mt，这与7.8.9月价格位于760.770.706，是严重下跌的。这个10月是多事之秋，从事氮肥生产的Terra Industries Inc股价也是无法幸免，不到一个月时间股价从44美元掉到了19美元。
2008-oct-16, urea weekly价格是 345美元，进一步急剧下滑。
UREA价格随着油价锐减了一半，可以预见，零售商为了避免亏损不愿减低售价，购买者等待更便宜的价格买入。这些问题本可以在期货市场得到解决，但期货市场并不活络。 （石油期货是另一途径）。 如果种植者lock了太多或太久的UREA，可说是输家。
磷肥
磷肥主要分成两类，一类是天然的鸟粪和动物骨骼。一类是化学磷肥。
中国是磷肥产量第一的国家，其次是美国。
2007年是中国磷肥市场重要的一年，该年成为净出口国，
最早的磷肥是过磷酸钙，现已逐渐被磷酸铵（氮磷复合肥，分成一铵，二铵，三铵）和重过磷酸钙（TSP)等高浓度磷肥取代。
磷肥期货种类为TSP和DAP（磷酸二铵，复合肥）。
磷肥的原料是磷矿。
有85％以上的磷矿用于磷肥生产。磷矿的品位按P2O5含量(％）表示，通常为29～38；近年来世界商品磷矿的平均品位为32.5～32.7。美国和其他一些国家，磷矿的品位以磷酸三钙〔Ca3(PO4)2〕的含量表示。磷矿的质量以品位和所含杂质矿物的种类、数量来进行评价。杂质含量以氧化铁、氧化铝、氧化镁、氟、氯、氧化钠、氧化钾、二氧化磷、三氧化硫、二氧化硅、有机物等的百分含量表示。磷矿的用途不同，对其质量要求也不一致（见磷肥、磷酸、过磷酸钙等）。
世界磷矿分布很广，储量约为130Gt（1Gt=10亿吨）。中国磷矿储量在10Gt以上，主要分布在云南、贵州、四川、湖北和湖南五省。1981年世界磷矿产量为138Mt(实物)，生产国有30多个，主要是美国、苏联和摩洛哥，约占总产量的79％，中国近年来的磷矿产量约为10Mt（折算成30％P2O5）。
国际上通常将磷矿中的P2O5含量大于30％称为富矿，P2O5含量小于12％称为贫矿。
人类社会的生存和发展离不开磷，因为农业生产需要大量的磷肥。可是，现已探明的磷储量仅够人类使用不足100年，我国(中国）磷矿的开采只有70年！更让人担忧的是，磷资源不仅十分有限，而且单向流动、不可再生。当人类跨入21世纪门槛时，不得不面对正在发生的磷危机，这绝非耸人听闻。
组分和结构
磷矿物按其成矿起源可分为沉积岩、变质岩和火成岩。目前，工业开采的约85％是海相沉积磷矿，其余主要为火成岩磷矿。鸟粪层磷矿是鸟粪的直接或间接的堆积物矿化而成，储量不大，但目前在世界磷矿年产量中约占2％，火成岩或变质岩磷矿品位一般比较低，但可选性好，通过浮选，可得到品位很高的精矿。目前工业开采的苏联科拉磷矿，南非帕拉博瓦磷矿，巴西雅库皮兰加磷矿，中国锦屏磷矿（见彩图）和黄麦岭磷矿等都属于火成岩磷矿，其产量约占总产量的16％。海相沉积磷矿的品位高低不一，可选性差别也很大，目前工业开采的是地理位置好、交通运输方便、采矿和富集费用比较低的那部分资源。美国佛罗里达磷矿和摩洛哥磷矿是世界著名的磷矿生产基地，中国云南滇池磷矿、贵州开阳磷矿和湖北荆襄磷矿都属于海相沉积磷矿，也有相当大的生产规模。
磷肥最普遍的期货代号是TSP， Phosphate rock 和DAP，DAP是复合肥因此不在这里说明。
TSP 的含量（折纯）是46%的P。
钾肥
世界钾盐资源极为丰富，但资源分布极不均衡，加拿大、俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、德国的合计储量和基础储量分别占世界总量的92%和81%，这几个国家主导了世界钾肥市场。加拿大钾肥（PotashCorp）公司拥有全球剩余产能的72%，这些寡头有自己的一套不为人知的库存机制，因此钾肥的价格是很独立的。
除了上述国家，其他生产钾肥的地区来自死海和中国盐湖。
钾肥的代表物是氯化钾（Potassium chloride，Muriate of Potash，KCI）。
CCM进口钾肥 from jordan（约旦）,Germany and Russia。
HAPSENG进口钾肥 from CANADA.
氯化钾价格可参考温哥华港口价格。
2008-oct-17记录
十月上旬和中旬，国际氯化钾价格上涨。
【2008-aug-19 edit】
全球最大的钾肥公司potash corp， 股价在这段商品热中涨了16倍，今次的危机让他的股价在几个月内缩水了70%(240 to 74计），但还是高位（相比2004年的12元）。
这公司的现金流不成问题，比较关注的是他们是否滥用了股票回购，不顾短期债务的压迫。
全世界的钾肥有70%控制在他们手上，因此他们的一举一动是令人关注的，如果连玉米，黄豆都不能达到盈利，那么potash必会向现实妥协，降低售价。
【end of 2008-aug-19 edit】
复合肥
DAP， diammonium phosphate， (NH4)2HPO4。
磷酸二铵又称磷酸氢二铵（DAP），是含氮磷两种营养成分的复合肥。
磷酸一铵，二铵，三铵，是同性质的。
一般上生产一吨DAP需要约0.45吨硫磺和约2.2吨磷矿石，另加阿摩尼亚。
硫磺在DAP成本中占比已达6成。
DAP的标准含量是18%nitrogen和46%phosphate，不过不是绝对值，各地规格不一。
DAP价格比TSP稍贵15-30%，这是因为DAP和TSP的制作非常接近。
制作DAP复合肥最需考虑的问题是供应和原料成本，上述的原料缺一不可，硫磺和阿摩尼亚常常出现在磷矿产地的港口，价格差异也不同。
TSP的生产问题不比DAP少。
硫磺来自硫铁矿，也来自石油和天然气。
DAP价格可参考美国坦帕港口价格。
2008-10-17记录
2008-10-16的DAP价格是970美元，这也是说，DAP价格自7月份的1185美元，下跌了19%
MAP,
11% nitrogen和52% phosphate ，为标准规格。
虽然MAP在生产成本、制作过程、运输成本、库存成本都比DAP占优，但他的参考价值和市场份额没有DAP明显。
补充
中国对肥料出口征收超过100%的税收，如果在年尾“重新检讨”，势必让肥料市场重新洗牌，但相信改变不会太大。
中国氮磷刚好处于自给自足的水平，世界磷生产集中在北美。
中国需入口硫磺以达到复合肥的平衡。
南亚是尿素生产集中地。
“P”是以P2O5计量，上述P折纯量皆是P2O5。
油棕
报告常常不具名肥料的“实物”和“折纯”，也没有透露NPK的折纯用量，因此我们看不懂分析员讲什么。
举个例子，分析员说IOI的施肥成本是RM1200每亩(行业总平均RM1600)，也就是一棵树每年需花费RM20, 这相等于每公斤肥料价格是RM2.5
这只是一个总值，没有细分清楚，因此我们没有办法分析。
如果是15-15-15，把NPK折纯量拆解，答案可能接近。
【2008-aug-18 edit】
也就是根据1)尿素氮折纯量2)氯化钾钾折纯量3）TSP的P2O5折纯量，进行计算,从中找出目前的施肥成本，如果跟进分析报导，是不明确的。
如果肥料继续挤压FFB售价，那么没有谈判能力的小园主必将面对亏损，这比一两年前的情况更糟，因为成本是回不到过去的。
这回的经济洗牌不只要洗金融，恐怕连油棕都要洗净。两国的农业.原产部长无能，没有落实方案，大不了我们也搞个生柴战略储备，至少可以把危机压个十年。
【end of 2008-aug-18 edit】
以下资料来源太广，因此不注明出处，其中不少自己的描述，不排除有错处。
氮肥
氮肥的全球供应来源分布很广，这是因为氮是构成自然界的重要元素，虽然氮随处可见(空气中)，但是植物并不能吸收**，城市化的影响，土壤氮流失很快，因此工业生产氮肥的需求是迫切的。
**除了少数具有固氮作用(Nitrogen fixation)的农作物。
在所有氮肥产品中，尿素（UREA，CO(NH2)2）是氮含量（46%）最高的化肥，因此尿素的市场价格主导了氮肥市场。
被利用在工业炸药的硝酸铵含氮元素为35%（简称硝铵，NH4NO3），也是主要的氮肥，他和尿素价格有同步系数。
氨（NH3，阿摩尼亚），形态多变，溶于水的氨是氨水（铵，NH4+），低温处理的氨是液氨（液态，无水氨），无论他怎么复杂，总括一句就是他是氮肥原料。阿摩尼亚和二氧化碳在加热情况下可生产出尿素，值得一提的是，尿素的生产成本的50%-70%来自能源，不管是用电力，天然气，或煤炭，这些热能成本是的不能避免的。因此，氮肥的价格是和原油同步的，但是原油暴跌并不会马上影响氮肥走势，这是因为商家避免亏损。
以马化学（ccm）为例，马化学的阿摩尼亚是从印尼进口的。
较普遍期货代号
UREA,46%nitrogen
UAN,32%nitrogen
UREA价格可参考印度Yuzhnyy和Baltic港口价格
2008-oct-16记录
2008-oct-9, urea weekly价格是 520美元/mt，这与7.8.9月价格位于760.770.706，是严重下跌的。这个10月是多事之秋，从事氮肥生产的Terra Industries Inc股价也是无法幸免，不到一个月时间股价从44美元掉到了19美元。
2008-oct-16, urea weekly价格是 345美元，进一步急剧下滑。
UREA价格随着油价锐减了一半，可以预见，零售商为了避免亏损不愿减低售价，购买者等待更便宜的价格买入。这些问题本可以在期货市场得到解决，但期货市场并不活络。 （石油期货是另一途径）。 如果种植者lock了太多或太久的UREA，可说是输家。
磷肥
磷肥主要分成两类，一类是天然的鸟粪和动物骨骼。一类是化学磷肥。
中国是磷肥产量第一的国家，其次是美国。
2007年是中国磷肥市场重要的一年，该年成为净出口国，
最早的磷肥是过磷酸钙，现已逐渐被磷酸铵（氮磷复合肥，分成一铵，二铵，三铵）和重过磷酸钙（TSP)等高浓度磷肥取代。
磷肥期货种类为TSP和DAP（磷酸二铵，复合肥）。
磷肥的原料是磷矿。
有85％以上的磷矿用于磷肥生产。磷矿的品位按P2O5含量(％）表示，通常为29～38；近年来世界商品磷矿的平均品位为32.5～32.7。美国和其他一些国家，磷矿的品位以磷酸三钙〔Ca3(PO4)2〕的含量表示。磷矿的质量以品位和所含杂质矿物的种类、数量来进行评价。杂质含量以氧化铁、氧化铝、氧化镁、氟、氯、氧化钠、氧化钾、二氧化磷、三氧化硫、二氧化硅、有机物等的百分含量表示。磷矿的用途不同，对其质量要求也不一致（见磷肥、磷酸、过磷酸钙等）。
世界磷矿分布很广，储量约为130Gt（1Gt=10亿吨）。中国磷矿储量在10Gt以上，主要分布在云南、贵州、四川、湖北和湖南五省。1981年世界磷矿产量为138Mt(实物)，生产国有30多个，主要是美国、苏联和摩洛哥，约占总产量的79％，中国近年来的磷矿产量约为10Mt（折算成30％P2O5）。
国际上通常将磷矿中的P2O5含量大于30％称为富矿，P2O5含量小于12％称为贫矿。
人类社会的生存和发展离不开磷，因为农业生产需要大量的磷肥。可是，现已探明的磷储量仅够人类使用不足100年，我国(中国）磷矿的开采只有70年！更让人担忧的是，磷资源不仅十分有限，而且单向流动、不可再生。当人类跨入21世纪门槛时，不得不面对正在发生的磷危机，这绝非耸人听闻。
组分和结构
磷矿物按其成矿起源可分为沉积岩、变质岩和火成岩。目前，工业开采的约85％是海相沉积磷矿，其余主要为火成岩磷矿。鸟粪层磷矿是鸟粪的直接或间接的堆积物矿化而成，储量不大，但目前在世界磷矿年产量中约占2％，火成岩或变质岩磷矿品位一般比较低，但可选性好，通过浮选，可得到品位很高的精矿。目前工业开采的苏联科拉磷矿，南非帕拉博瓦磷矿，巴西雅库皮兰加磷矿，中国锦屏磷矿（见彩图）和黄麦岭磷矿等都属于火成岩磷矿，其产量约占总产量的16％。海相沉积磷矿的品位高低不一，可选性差别也很大，目前工业开采的是地理位置好、交通运输方便、采矿和富集费用比较低的那部分资源。美国佛罗里达磷矿和摩洛哥磷矿是世界著名的磷矿生产基地，中国云南滇池磷矿、贵州开阳磷矿和湖北荆襄磷矿都属于海相沉积磷矿，也有相当大的生产规模。
磷肥最普遍的期货代号是TSP， Phosphate rock 和DAP，DAP是复合肥因此不在这里说明。
TSP 的含量（折纯）是46%的P。
钾肥
世界钾盐资源极为丰富，但资源分布极不均衡，加拿大、俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、德国的合计储量和基础储量分别占世界总量的92%和81%，这几个国家主导了世界钾肥市场。加拿大钾肥（PotashCorp）公司拥有全球剩余产能的72%，这些寡头有自己的一套不为人知的库存机制，因此钾肥的价格是很独立的。
除了上述国家，其他生产钾肥的地区来自死海和中国盐湖。
钾肥的代表物是氯化钾（Potassium chloride，Muriate of Potash，KCI）。
CCM进口钾肥 from jordan（约旦）,Germany and Russia。
HAPSENG进口钾肥 from CANADA.
氯化钾价格可参考温哥华港口价格。
2008-oct-17记录
十月上旬和中旬，国际氯化钾价格上涨。
【2008-aug-19 edit】
全球最大的钾肥公司potash corp， 股价在这段商品热中涨了16倍，今次的危机让他的股价在几个月内缩水了70%(240 to 74计），但还是高位（相比2004年的12元）。
这公司的现金流不成问题，比较关注的是他们是否滥用了股票回购，不顾短期债务的压迫。
全世界的钾肥有70%控制在他们手上，因此他们的一举一动是令人关注的，如果连玉米，黄豆都不能达到盈利，那么potash必会向现实妥协，降低售价。
【end of 2008-aug-19 edit】
复合肥
DAP， diammonium phosphate， (NH4)2HPO4。
磷酸二铵又称磷酸氢二铵（DAP），是含氮磷两种营养成分的复合肥。
磷酸一铵，二铵，三铵，是同性质的。
一般上生产一吨DAP需要约0.45吨硫磺和约2.2吨磷矿石，另加阿摩尼亚。
硫磺在DAP成本中占比已达6成。
DAP的标准含量是18%nitrogen和46%phosphate，不过不是绝对值，各地规格不一。
DAP价格比TSP稍贵15-30%，这是因为DAP和TSP的制作非常接近。
制作DAP复合肥最需考虑的问题是供应和原料成本，上述的原料缺一不可，硫磺和阿摩尼亚常常出现在磷矿产地的港口，价格差异也不同。
TSP的生产问题不比DAP少。
硫磺来自硫铁矿，也来自石油和天然气。
DAP价格可参考美国坦帕港口价格。
2008-10-17记录
2008-10-16的DAP价格是970美元，这也是说，DAP价格自7月份的1185美元，下跌了19%
MAP,
11% nitrogen和52% phosphate ，为标准规格。
虽然MAP在生产成本、制作过程、运输成本、库存成本都比DAP占优，但他的参考价值和市场份额没有DAP明显。
补充
中国对肥料出口征收超过100%的税收，如果在年尾“重新检讨”，势必让肥料市场重新洗牌，但相信改变不会太大。
中国氮磷刚好处于自给自足的水平，世界磷生产集中在北美。
中国需入口硫磺以达到复合肥的平衡。
南亚是尿素生产集中地。
“P”是以P2O5计量，上述P折纯量皆是P2O5。
油棕
报告常常不具名肥料的“实物”和“折纯”，也没有透露NPK的折纯用量，因此我们看不懂分析员讲什么。
举个例子，分析员说IOI的施肥成本是RM1200每亩(行业总平均RM1600)，也就是一棵树每年需花费RM20, 这相等于每公斤肥料价格是RM2.5
这只是一个总值，没有细分清楚，因此我们没有办法分析。
如果是15-15-15，把NPK折纯量拆解，答案可能接近。
【2008-aug-18 edit】
也就是根据1)尿素氮折纯量2)氯化钾钾折纯量3）TSP的P2O5折纯量，进行计算,从中找出目前的施肥成本，如果跟进分析报导，是不明确的。
如果肥料继续挤压FFB售价，那么没有谈判能力的小园主必将面对亏损，这比一两年前的情况更糟，因为成本是回不到过去的。
这回的经济洗牌不只要洗金融，恐怕连油棕都要洗净。两国的农业.原产部长无能，没有落实方案，大不了我们也搞个生柴战略储备，至少可以把危机压个十年。
【end of 2008-aug-18 edit】
08 SEPTEMBER 2008
14 JULY 2008
fertilizer player -- CCM
Board: Main
Sector: Industrial Products
GICS: Materials/Diversified Chemicals
Market Value - Total: MYR1,119.2 mln
Summary: Chemical Company of Malaysia (CCM) is the largest manufacturer of compound fertilizers and generic drugs in Malaysia, and a leading producer of industrial and specialty chemicals.
Analyst: Siti Rudziah Salikin
recommendation: hold TP RM3.10
price RM2.78
Date: July 8, 2008
Highlights
The expansion of its fertilizer capacity will make CCM the largest compound fertilizer manufacturer in the region. The fertilizer division is well-positioned to capitalize on the high prices of agricultural commodities, which will drive the demand growth for fertilizer to boost crop output.
The growth prospect for the pharmaceutical segment is promising in our opinion, in view of rising healthcare spending and the expected rise in generic substitutes. As the largest manufacturer of generic drugs in the country, CCM is in a favorable position to benefit from the projected growth for the industry.
We also view positively CCM’s efforts to expand its water care solution to include physical water treatment technology to its present chemical treatment. This will help CCM to weather the current price competition from cheaper imports of industrial chemicals.
We forecast a two-year net profit CAGR of 19.5% for CCM driven by the expansion of the fertilizer division and the growth in the pharmaceutical segment.
Investment Risks
Risks to our recommendation and target price include a reversal in the commodity price uptrend which may reduce the demand for fertilizers. A continued increase in raw material prices and stronger competition from cheaper imports will also put a pressure on margins for the pharmaceuticals and chemicals divisions.
Recommendation
We initiate coverage on CCM with a Hold call and a 12-month target price of MYR3.10.
CCM offers indirect exposure to the buoyant agricultural commodity sector through its expanding fertilizer division and the growing pharmaceutical sector in the country. The stock also gives a decent dividend yield of 5.8%.
At 16x 2008 earnings, the stock trades at a premium to the market’s PER but we believe this is supported by our projected double-digit earnings growth. The valuation is also within the range of multiples of between 14x and 20x for the stock over the past two years.
We continue to value CCM at 16x PER and assign the multiple to our projected earnings for 2009 to arrive at our 12-month target price.
In its 2007 annual report, the company detailed its commitment to the framework on Corporate Social Responsibility. Its social contributions included pharmaceutical donations to the Johor flood victims in 2007 and personal first aid kit donations to Malaysian pilgrims on their Haj under the “Sahabat Korporat Tabung Haji’ programme. CCM also collaborated with Yayasan Jantung Malaysia and the National Diabetes Institute to promote greater public awareness on health issues.
Background
CCM is the largest manufacturer of compound fertilizers and generic drugs in Malaysia, and a leading producer of industrial and specialty chemicals. Listed on the Main Board of Bursa Malaysia in 1966, CCM was part of the UK-based ICI Group, prior to a management buyout in November 1994. Permodalan Nasional Berhad (PNB) became CCM’s controlling shareholder in January 2005. Currently, PNB has 13.7% direct stake in CCM and a 45.9% indirect stake via Skim Amanah Saham Bumiputera. Tan Sri Ab. Rahman bin Omar is the Chairman of CCM and Dato’ Dr. Mohamad Hashim bin Ahmad Tajudin is the Group Managing Director.
CCM’s businesses are divided into three main segments, namely: (i) fertilizers; (ii) chemicals; and (iii) pharmaceuticals. The fertilizers division was the largest revenue contributor in 2007, accounting for 48.2% of total revenue. In terms of profit contribution, the pharmaceuticals segment took the lead, accounting for 53.3% of group pre-tax profit for 2007 with the fertilizers division contributing 33.1%.
Fertilizers
CCM opened Malaysia’s first compound fertilizer plant in Shah Alam in 1967 and is today the largest producer of compound fertilizers in Malaysia with an estimated 30% market share. CCM’s fertilizers are sold under the Cock Head brand, which has an established presence in the region. CCM also trades a wide range of other straight and mixed fertilizers. Its customers generally represent those in the oil palm plantation and cash crops industries. About 60% of sales go to the domestic plantation companies and 30% to domestic small holders. The remaining 10% are exported to the countries in the region.
The expansion of oil palm plantations and the current high prices of agricultural commodities have boosted the demand for and tightened the supply of fertilizers in the country. CCM’s plant in Shah Alam is operating at full capacity of 280,000 tons per year. CCM is investing MYR150 mln in three new fertilizer plants, which will gradually expand its production capacity to 670,000 tons by 2010. The construction of the first plant in Bintulu, Sarawak is expected to start operations by July 2008. The other two plants will be located in Lahad Datu, Sabah and in Medan, Indonesia. The new plants will place CCM closer to its markets, thus reducing the delivery costs. In the meantime, CCM is importing fertilizers as well as contracting out some of the manufacturing to third parties to fulfil the current demand from its customers.
CCM is also converting its existing fertilizer plant in Shah Alam into a safer and lower cost urea-based steam granulation plant from the current ammonia-based NPK Compound Plant. With the conversion, which is expected to take place in 4Q08, CCM expects to reduce its plant maintenance and servicing costs. At the same time, the logistics and handling expenses relating to liquid ammonia, which is currently imported, will be eliminated. CCM plans to spend MYR25 mln for the conversion and will write off MYR15.4 mln in net book value of the fixed assets and spare parts of the current nitric acid plant.
Prices of the main raw materials, such as ammonium sulfate, nitrogen dioxide, potassium and phosphate, have been on the rise. However, due to the strong demand for fertilizers, CCM has been able to pass on the cost increases to its customers through price hikes (the price of compound fertilizers was raised by 15% in September 2007). CCM also indirectly owns a stake in its phosphate supplier, Phosphate Resources Ltd, which operates the largest phosphate mine in Australia. In September 2006, CCM acquired a 16% stake in Perth-based CI Resources Ltd, which holds 39.1% of Phosphate Resources. The strategic ownership helps to ensure an uninterrupted and cost-competitive supply of phosphates to CCM.
Chemicals CCM’s chemical division, which is grouped under CCM Chemical Sdn Bhd, produces various chemical products at its three manufacturing and repacking facilities: (i) chlor-alkali and coagulants plants in Pasir Gudang; (ii) calcium nitrate plant in Shah Alam; and (iii) ammonia bottling plant in Port Klang. It is also a major trading house of industrial and specialty chemicals, representing over 50 leading principals both domestically and in the region.
CCM Chemical is the leading supplier of water treatment solutions to the municipal and industrial waste water sectors in the country. Malaysia remains its main market but revenue contribution from exports or sales outside Malaysia have gradually grown to about 30% from 23% in 2005. CCM aims to increase export contribution to 40% of revenue in the next few years as it expands its regional networks from present Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines.
CCM acquired 97.1% of Enersave Water Sdn Bhd (Enersave) in April 2008 for MYR32.3 mln to strengthen its presence in the watercare business and expand its offering of watercare solution to include physical water treatment technology in the clean water and wastewater sectors. Enersave designs, installs and provides maintenance services for water purification and wastewater treatment systems primarily for the oil and gas, microelectonics and utilities sectors.
Pharmaceuticals
CCM, via its wholly-owned subsidiary CCM Pharmaceutical Sdn Bhd, is the largest manufacturer of generic drugs in Malaysia and is the leading player in the over-the-counter pharmaceutical market in Malaysia. CCM Pharmaceutical has over 280 products in its portfolio, including antihistamines, antibiotics and expectorants.
CCM expanded its pharmaceutical division further when its other whollyowned unit, CCM Pharma Sdn Bhd acquired the brands and assets of Malayan Pharmaceutical Sdn Bhd for MYR22 mln in March 2007. The move brought several and established brands under CCM’s wing and is expected to strengthen its leading position going forward. CCM has three manufacturing facilities located in Bangi, Petaling Jaya and Subang Jaya. The Bangi facility focuses on producing oral solid dosage products while the Petaling Jaya and Subang Jaya plants concentrate on complex products and cephalosporin, respectively. The facilities in Bangi were recently expanded (at a cost of MYR50 mln), which doubled its capacity to 1.0 bln tablets annually.
CCM also owns 73.7% of CCM Duopharma Biotech (Duopharma) (CCMD MK, MYR2.48, Not Ranked), which was acquired in October 2005. Duopharma is a leading manufacturer of small volume injectables (SVI), which is a premium pharmaceutical product, and has a growing herbal pharmaceutical business.
Duopharma’s manufacturing facility in Klang produces liquid for the treatment of haemodialysis, as well as tablets, capsules and ampoules for SVI. It plans to spend MYR75 mln to expand its manufacturing and warehousing facilities. Upon completion in 2009, it expects to double the plant’s manufacturing capacity to 1.5 bln tablets, capsules and ampoules for SVI and more than one mln liters of liquids for the treatment of haemodialysis. Duopharma derives over 90% of its revenue from domestic clients, which include the government, the over-the-counter market and private hospitals.
CCM’s pharmaceutical division exports its products to over 20 countries, with Singapore and Hong Kong being the two largest markets. CCM is looking to penetrate new markets, such as the Middle East and Africa to grow the export contributions to the pharmaceutical division’s revenue from less than 10%, presently.
Earnings Outlook
CCM’s recurring net profit grew 22% YoY in 2007 (2006 results included a gain of MYR62.7 mln from sale of investments while 2007 profit included a MYR12.3 mln gain from the revaluation of property and sale of land). Leading the growth was the fertilizers division, which saw a 35.1% YoY growth in revenue and an improvement in pre-tax margins to 4.8% from 2.4% in 2006. This was due to increased fertilizer prices arising from the tighter global supply/demand for fertilizers. Higher bulk trading of straight fertilizers in the ASEAN markets also contributed to the growth. The fertilizers division’s contribution to group pre-tax profit rose to 33.1% in 2007 from less than 10% in 2006.
Pre-tax profit for the pharmaceutical segment increased 12.6% YoY driven by the expansion of the over-the-counter pharmaceutical market (helped by the inclusion of Malayan Pharmaceutical’s products) and increased sales to the government sector. The chemical segment, on the other hand, recorded a 29.4% YoY drop in pre-tax profit despite registering 22.9% YoY rise in revenue due to the entry of cheaper imports, which eroded prices and squeezed profitability.
We forecast a two-year net profit CAGR of 19.5% to 2009 for CCM, driven by the expansion of the fertilizer division and the growth in the pharmaceutical segment.
The government’s focus on the agriculture sector under the Ninth Malaysian Plan as well as the expansion of oil palm plantations in Sabah, Sarawak and Indonesia augurs well for CCM’s fertilizers division. The high prices of agricultural commodities, which are expected to sustain in view of the tight supply/demand situations for almost all agricultural commodities, will also support the growth in demand for fertilizer to boost crop output. For CCM, 2008 will see the full-year impact of the price hike and maiden contribution from the fertilizer plant in Bintulu. The full-year impact of the capacity in Bintulu and the commencement of the plant in Medan will support the growth for 2009. We also expect greater plant efficiency after the conversion of the plant in Shah Alam in 4Q08 with the impact to be felt in 2009.
The Malaysian pharmaceutical industry is estimated to have expanded by 12% in 2007, with the generic market registering a 16% growth. Going forward, the generic market is expected to see a stronger growth given a large number of patents expiring worldwide. Given that locally manufactured pharmaceuticals account for an estimated 20%-30% of the market, there is good potential ahead for local players to increase their market share. As the largest over-the-counter player domestically and with the expansion of its manufacturing facilities, CCM is in a favorable position to benefit from the projected growth for the industry.
Nonetheless, we expect some pressure on operating margin for the pharmaceutical segment due to the increasing cost of regulatory compliance in the pharmaceutical segment and rising competition from imported generic products.
The demand outlook for the chemical division is relatively stable, in our opinion, given the constant need for a clean source of water supply. However, competition from cheap imports continues to be a concern and may continue to squeeze margins for the division. CCM is enhancing its competitiveness by increasing the specialty content of its chemical product portfolio via its recent acquisitions of Enersave.
Valuation
At 16x 2008 earnings, the stock trades at a premium to the market but we believe this is supported by its double-digit net profit growth. The valuation is also within the range of multiples of between 14x and 20x for the stock over the past two years.
We continue to value CCM at a 16x PER and assign the multiple to our projected earnings for 2009 and arrive at our 12-month target price for the stock of MYR3.10.
We expect CCM to be able to maintain a dividend payment of 16 sen per share in 2008, yielding a decent 5.8% at the current share price.
Recent Developments
April 2008: CCM completed the acquisition of 97.1% stake in Enersave Water Sdn Bhd for MYR38.28 mln.
April 2008: CCM entered into a conditional shares sale agreement to acquire 100% of Innovative Polymer Systems Sdn Bhd, 100% of Innovative Resins Sdn Bhd and 100% of Delta Polymers Systems Sdn Bhd for MYR126.9 mln cash from Paramount Discovery Sdn Bhd. The acquisition is in line with CCM’s business strategy of increasing the specialty content of its chemical product portfolio.
肥料领域的49%股权落入LTH手中，和大股东有协同作用吗？另一个问题是你只有51%，成长率都要减半。
CI RESOURCE的磷肥供应影响很小。
从akn买来的公司，是做手套方案的，有协同作用吗？
超过15倍本益比很贵，原因只是GLC，没有其他原因。
Sector: Industrial Products
GICS: Materials/Diversified Chemicals
Market Value - Total: MYR1,119.2 mln
Summary: Chemical Company of Malaysia (CCM) is the largest manufacturer of compound fertilizers and generic drugs in Malaysia, and a leading producer of industrial and specialty chemicals.
Analyst: Siti Rudziah Salikin
recommendation: hold TP RM3.10
price RM2.78
Date: July 8, 2008
Highlights
The expansion of its fertilizer capacity will make CCM the largest compound fertilizer manufacturer in the region. The fertilizer division is well-positioned to capitalize on the high prices of agricultural commodities, which will drive the demand growth for fertilizer to boost crop output.
The growth prospect for the pharmaceutical segment is promising in our opinion, in view of rising healthcare spending and the expected rise in generic substitutes. As the largest manufacturer of generic drugs in the country, CCM is in a favorable position to benefit from the projected growth for the industry.
We also view positively CCM’s efforts to expand its water care solution to include physical water treatment technology to its present chemical treatment. This will help CCM to weather the current price competition from cheaper imports of industrial chemicals.
We forecast a two-year net profit CAGR of 19.5% for CCM driven by the expansion of the fertilizer division and the growth in the pharmaceutical segment.
Investment Risks
Risks to our recommendation and target price include a reversal in the commodity price uptrend which may reduce the demand for fertilizers. A continued increase in raw material prices and stronger competition from cheaper imports will also put a pressure on margins for the pharmaceuticals and chemicals divisions.
Recommendation
We initiate coverage on CCM with a Hold call and a 12-month target price of MYR3.10.
CCM offers indirect exposure to the buoyant agricultural commodity sector through its expanding fertilizer division and the growing pharmaceutical sector in the country. The stock also gives a decent dividend yield of 5.8%.
At 16x 2008 earnings, the stock trades at a premium to the market’s PER but we believe this is supported by our projected double-digit earnings growth. The valuation is also within the range of multiples of between 14x and 20x for the stock over the past two years.
We continue to value CCM at 16x PER and assign the multiple to our projected earnings for 2009 to arrive at our 12-month target price.
In its 2007 annual report, the company detailed its commitment to the framework on Corporate Social Responsibility. Its social contributions included pharmaceutical donations to the Johor flood victims in 2007 and personal first aid kit donations to Malaysian pilgrims on their Haj under the “Sahabat Korporat Tabung Haji’ programme. CCM also collaborated with Yayasan Jantung Malaysia and the National Diabetes Institute to promote greater public awareness on health issues.
Background
CCM is the largest manufacturer of compound fertilizers and generic drugs in Malaysia, and a leading producer of industrial and specialty chemicals. Listed on the Main Board of Bursa Malaysia in 1966, CCM was part of the UK-based ICI Group, prior to a management buyout in November 1994. Permodalan Nasional Berhad (PNB) became CCM’s controlling shareholder in January 2005. Currently, PNB has 13.7% direct stake in CCM and a 45.9% indirect stake via Skim Amanah Saham Bumiputera. Tan Sri Ab. Rahman bin Omar is the Chairman of CCM and Dato’ Dr. Mohamad Hashim bin Ahmad Tajudin is the Group Managing Director.
CCM’s businesses are divided into three main segments, namely: (i) fertilizers; (ii) chemicals; and (iii) pharmaceuticals. The fertilizers division was the largest revenue contributor in 2007, accounting for 48.2% of total revenue. In terms of profit contribution, the pharmaceuticals segment took the lead, accounting for 53.3% of group pre-tax profit for 2007 with the fertilizers division contributing 33.1%.
Fertilizers
CCM opened Malaysia’s first compound fertilizer plant in Shah Alam in 1967 and is today the largest producer of compound fertilizers in Malaysia with an estimated 30% market share. CCM’s fertilizers are sold under the Cock Head brand, which has an established presence in the region. CCM also trades a wide range of other straight and mixed fertilizers. Its customers generally represent those in the oil palm plantation and cash crops industries. About 60% of sales go to the domestic plantation companies and 30% to domestic small holders. The remaining 10% are exported to the countries in the region.
The expansion of oil palm plantations and the current high prices of agricultural commodities have boosted the demand for and tightened the supply of fertilizers in the country. CCM’s plant in Shah Alam is operating at full capacity of 280,000 tons per year. CCM is investing MYR150 mln in three new fertilizer plants, which will gradually expand its production capacity to 670,000 tons by 2010. The construction of the first plant in Bintulu, Sarawak is expected to start operations by July 2008. The other two plants will be located in Lahad Datu, Sabah and in Medan, Indonesia. The new plants will place CCM closer to its markets, thus reducing the delivery costs. In the meantime, CCM is importing fertilizers as well as contracting out some of the manufacturing to third parties to fulfil the current demand from its customers.
CCM is also converting its existing fertilizer plant in Shah Alam into a safer and lower cost urea-based steam granulation plant from the current ammonia-based NPK Compound Plant. With the conversion, which is expected to take place in 4Q08, CCM expects to reduce its plant maintenance and servicing costs. At the same time, the logistics and handling expenses relating to liquid ammonia, which is currently imported, will be eliminated. CCM plans to spend MYR25 mln for the conversion and will write off MYR15.4 mln in net book value of the fixed assets and spare parts of the current nitric acid plant.
Prices of the main raw materials, such as ammonium sulfate, nitrogen dioxide, potassium and phosphate, have been on the rise. However, due to the strong demand for fertilizers, CCM has been able to pass on the cost increases to its customers through price hikes (the price of compound fertilizers was raised by 15% in September 2007). CCM also indirectly owns a stake in its phosphate supplier, Phosphate Resources Ltd, which operates the largest phosphate mine in Australia. In September 2006, CCM acquired a 16% stake in Perth-based CI Resources Ltd, which holds 39.1% of Phosphate Resources. The strategic ownership helps to ensure an uninterrupted and cost-competitive supply of phosphates to CCM.
Chemicals CCM’s chemical division, which is grouped under CCM Chemical Sdn Bhd, produces various chemical products at its three manufacturing and repacking facilities: (i) chlor-alkali and coagulants plants in Pasir Gudang; (ii) calcium nitrate plant in Shah Alam; and (iii) ammonia bottling plant in Port Klang. It is also a major trading house of industrial and specialty chemicals, representing over 50 leading principals both domestically and in the region.
CCM Chemical is the leading supplier of water treatment solutions to the municipal and industrial waste water sectors in the country. Malaysia remains its main market but revenue contribution from exports or sales outside Malaysia have gradually grown to about 30% from 23% in 2005. CCM aims to increase export contribution to 40% of revenue in the next few years as it expands its regional networks from present Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines.
CCM acquired 97.1% of Enersave Water Sdn Bhd (Enersave) in April 2008 for MYR32.3 mln to strengthen its presence in the watercare business and expand its offering of watercare solution to include physical water treatment technology in the clean water and wastewater sectors. Enersave designs, installs and provides maintenance services for water purification and wastewater treatment systems primarily for the oil and gas, microelectonics and utilities sectors.
Pharmaceuticals
CCM, via its wholly-owned subsidiary CCM Pharmaceutical Sdn Bhd, is the largest manufacturer of generic drugs in Malaysia and is the leading player in the over-the-counter pharmaceutical market in Malaysia. CCM Pharmaceutical has over 280 products in its portfolio, including antihistamines, antibiotics and expectorants.
CCM expanded its pharmaceutical division further when its other whollyowned unit, CCM Pharma Sdn Bhd acquired the brands and assets of Malayan Pharmaceutical Sdn Bhd for MYR22 mln in March 2007. The move brought several and established brands under CCM’s wing and is expected to strengthen its leading position going forward. CCM has three manufacturing facilities located in Bangi, Petaling Jaya and Subang Jaya. The Bangi facility focuses on producing oral solid dosage products while the Petaling Jaya and Subang Jaya plants concentrate on complex products and cephalosporin, respectively. The facilities in Bangi were recently expanded (at a cost of MYR50 mln), which doubled its capacity to 1.0 bln tablets annually.
CCM also owns 73.7% of CCM Duopharma Biotech (Duopharma) (CCMD MK, MYR2.48, Not Ranked), which was acquired in October 2005. Duopharma is a leading manufacturer of small volume injectables (SVI), which is a premium pharmaceutical product, and has a growing herbal pharmaceutical business.
Duopharma’s manufacturing facility in Klang produces liquid for the treatment of haemodialysis, as well as tablets, capsules and ampoules for SVI. It plans to spend MYR75 mln to expand its manufacturing and warehousing facilities. Upon completion in 2009, it expects to double the plant’s manufacturing capacity to 1.5 bln tablets, capsules and ampoules for SVI and more than one mln liters of liquids for the treatment of haemodialysis. Duopharma derives over 90% of its revenue from domestic clients, which include the government, the over-the-counter market and private hospitals.
CCM’s pharmaceutical division exports its products to over 20 countries, with Singapore and Hong Kong being the two largest markets. CCM is looking to penetrate new markets, such as the Middle East and Africa to grow the export contributions to the pharmaceutical division’s revenue from less than 10%, presently.
Earnings Outlook
CCM’s recurring net profit grew 22% YoY in 2007 (2006 results included a gain of MYR62.7 mln from sale of investments while 2007 profit included a MYR12.3 mln gain from the revaluation of property and sale of land). Leading the growth was the fertilizers division, which saw a 35.1% YoY growth in revenue and an improvement in pre-tax margins to 4.8% from 2.4% in 2006. This was due to increased fertilizer prices arising from the tighter global supply/demand for fertilizers. Higher bulk trading of straight fertilizers in the ASEAN markets also contributed to the growth. The fertilizers division’s contribution to group pre-tax profit rose to 33.1% in 2007 from less than 10% in 2006.
Pre-tax profit for the pharmaceutical segment increased 12.6% YoY driven by the expansion of the over-the-counter pharmaceutical market (helped by the inclusion of Malayan Pharmaceutical’s products) and increased sales to the government sector. The chemical segment, on the other hand, recorded a 29.4% YoY drop in pre-tax profit despite registering 22.9% YoY rise in revenue due to the entry of cheaper imports, which eroded prices and squeezed profitability.
We forecast a two-year net profit CAGR of 19.5% to 2009 for CCM, driven by the expansion of the fertilizer division and the growth in the pharmaceutical segment.
The government’s focus on the agriculture sector under the Ninth Malaysian Plan as well as the expansion of oil palm plantations in Sabah, Sarawak and Indonesia augurs well for CCM’s fertilizers division. The high prices of agricultural commodities, which are expected to sustain in view of the tight supply/demand situations for almost all agricultural commodities, will also support the growth in demand for fertilizer to boost crop output. For CCM, 2008 will see the full-year impact of the price hike and maiden contribution from the fertilizer plant in Bintulu. The full-year impact of the capacity in Bintulu and the commencement of the plant in Medan will support the growth for 2009. We also expect greater plant efficiency after the conversion of the plant in Shah Alam in 4Q08 with the impact to be felt in 2009.
The Malaysian pharmaceutical industry is estimated to have expanded by 12% in 2007, with the generic market registering a 16% growth. Going forward, the generic market is expected to see a stronger growth given a large number of patents expiring worldwide. Given that locally manufactured pharmaceuticals account for an estimated 20%-30% of the market, there is good potential ahead for local players to increase their market share. As the largest over-the-counter player domestically and with the expansion of its manufacturing facilities, CCM is in a favorable position to benefit from the projected growth for the industry.
Nonetheless, we expect some pressure on operating margin for the pharmaceutical segment due to the increasing cost of regulatory compliance in the pharmaceutical segment and rising competition from imported generic products.
The demand outlook for the chemical division is relatively stable, in our opinion, given the constant need for a clean source of water supply. However, competition from cheap imports continues to be a concern and may continue to squeeze margins for the division. CCM is enhancing its competitiveness by increasing the specialty content of its chemical product portfolio via its recent acquisitions of Enersave.
Valuation
At 16x 2008 earnings, the stock trades at a premium to the market but we believe this is supported by its double-digit net profit growth. The valuation is also within the range of multiples of between 14x and 20x for the stock over the past two years.
We continue to value CCM at a 16x PER and assign the multiple to our projected earnings for 2009 and arrive at our 12-month target price for the stock of MYR3.10.
We expect CCM to be able to maintain a dividend payment of 16 sen per share in 2008, yielding a decent 5.8% at the current share price.
Recent Developments
April 2008: CCM completed the acquisition of 97.1% stake in Enersave Water Sdn Bhd for MYR38.28 mln.
April 2008: CCM entered into a conditional shares sale agreement to acquire 100% of Innovative Polymer Systems Sdn Bhd, 100% of Innovative Resins Sdn Bhd and 100% of Delta Polymers Systems Sdn Bhd for MYR126.9 mln cash from Paramount Discovery Sdn Bhd. The acquisition is in line with CCM’s business strategy of increasing the specialty content of its chemical product portfolio.
肥料领域的49%股权落入LTH手中，和大股东有协同作用吗？另一个问题是你只有51%，成长率都要减半。
CI RESOURCE的磷肥供应影响很小。
从akn买来的公司，是做手套方案的，有协同作用吗？
超过15倍本益比很贵，原因只是GLC，没有其他原因。
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