Hovid Bhd - Waiting For New Capacity To Kick

 In Author: kiasutrader   |   Publish date: Wed, 18 Feb 08:41

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Post-meeting  with  management,  we  are  positive  that  Hovid’s  capacity issue  will  finally  be  resolved  by  end-2Q15.  Maintain  NEUTRAL  with  a revised  MYR0.45  TP  (5%  upside).  We  expect  Hovid’s  earnings  to gradually  recover  throughout  the  year,  assisted  by  the  new  capacity injection.  We  also  expect the MYR depreciation to have minimal impact on earnings. We make no changes to our earnings forecasts.

Capacity  ramp-up  update.  We  recently  spoke  to  management  to  get some  new  updates  on  its  capacity  expansion.  According  to  Hovid,  the new extension of its Chemor plant is currently seeing new equipment as well as fixtures and fittings being brought into the newly built plant. The first phase of the  new plant is expected to  be ready and operational in Apr  2015,  as guided by management. Meanwhile, the second phase is slated  for  completion  by  end-2015.  The  first  phase  of  expansion  will increase  Hovid’s  capacity  and  revenue  by  30%  and  MYR8m-10m respectively.

Minimal  impact  of  depreciating  MYR.  We  expect  minimal  impact  on Hovid’s  earnings  resulting  from  the  recent  depreciation  of  the  MYR against  the  USD.  Even  though  53%  of  Hovid’s  revenue  comes  from USD-denominated export sales, we also note that close to 70% of its raw material  imports  are  quoted  in  the  USD as  well.  We have also  updated our new USD/MYR assumptions to MYR3.50 in line with our house view.

Industry  update.  We  have  seen  a  global  movement  calling  for increased  usage  of  generic  vs  patented  drugs.  Several  countries  are also  tightening  up  their  policies  on  new  patented  drug  registration  to reduce the escalating medical costs and reliance on patented drugs. We believe  this  will  be  a  positive  stimulus  for  Hovid  in  the  longer  term  as more drugs go off patent in the coming years.

Risks  include: i)  delay in  its  new plant  operation, ii) high lower-margin product orders, and iii) slow new drug registration process.

Forecasts. We make no changes to our FY15-16 earnings forecasts.  Valuations. We remain NEUTRAL on Hovid with a revised MYR0.45 TP(from  MYR0.39)  as  we  roll  forward  our  earnings  to  FY16.  Our  TP  is pegged to  an unchanged  17x  fully-diluted  CY16 EPS,  which is an  11% discount to the average P/E of its local and regional peers of 19x FY16 P/E. Historically, Hovid has traded up to 20x P/E.


藥劑業“分家”‧藥妝業成贏家
2015-02-22 19:25

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政府有意落實醫生與藥劑事務分權，或將導致大馬藥劑業出現大洗牌，惟分析員認為“醫”“藥”分家，不會影響藥劑業者的盈利表現，至於藥妝業者則成為贏家。
據悉，大馬衛生部正與醫生及藥劑業者接洽，討論落實醫生與藥劑事務分權事宜，但確實落實日期還沒肯定，但其中一個機構希望能在4月落實。
諮詢費提高
成本增加
若方案落實，醫生只可以為病人配藥，病人需要到藥房才可以買入需要的藥物。醫生的收入可能減少，將被迫提高諮詢費，最終令整體醫療成本增加。
聯昌研究表示，分權後消費者仍需要到藥房買藥，藥還是需要吃，所以不會對藥劑業者及私人醫院造成影響。
該行透露，私人醫院早已“醫”“藥”分家，而屬於私人醫院的藥房也佔盡地利，此政策不會因為銷售管道的分別而有所影響。
反觀，藥妝業者如康寧（CARING，5245，主板貿服組）會成為這政策的大贏家，因為消費者需要到藥房才能買到需要的藥物，這可大大提昇營業額。
至於未附設藥劑店的私人診所，收入將減少，可能需要提高診費。
聯昌研究對此消息表示中立，保持對藥劑業者“跑贏大市”評級，藥劑業者首選為發馬（PHARMA，7081，主板貿服組）及何人可 （HOVID，7213，主板消費品組），私人醫院首選為綜合保健（IHH，5225，主板貿服組）。（星洲日報／投資致富‧投資大班‧文：陳林德）


第一期扩建的预期在4-5月份开始产能

Also reply from Hovid IR:

1) The pharmaceutical business continues to perform well and improve further with the added tablet and capsule production facilities due to be commissioned towards the second half of 2015.

2) The warehouse design has just been finalized and awaiting approvals from the respective government authorities
in order to proceed commencing the physical works. Also started the tender exercise for the civil and structure works for the warehouse. It should commence operation towards the end of 2015.

The new warehouse allows us to consolidate the 10 warehouses we have throughout Malaysia and reduce the unnecessary multiple handling of stocks, and resulting in lower the logistic costs.

3) Hovid Online Store is selling Tocovid SupraBio and it's one of Hovid's premium products that is continuously performing well
       as its health benefits are being proven with positive clinical studies results.

       There are US companies selling supplements made from Tocomin SupraBio (extract from Palm Tocotrienols) manufactured by Carotech with different product brand names.

Carotech 会不会咸鱼翻身呢？就要靠这个产品Tocomin SupraBio (extract from Palm Tocotrienols)的医疗效果


http://www.carotech.net/index/news/341.html
https://www.foodchemicalnews.co.jp/item/1026.html (获得日本 Food Style 21 magazine报道)

2009年时，Carotech已经在提供全球tocotrienol的70-80巴仙需求量，也供应40-50巴仙全球 Natural Carotene
(资料来自 Peak_BiotechBaron_Jul09.pdf)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IeQlDTPN7MI&list=UUjreG3h-4PQ8uO6kNFiBUmg