2014年9月1日星期一

转贴:Weida: Property To Stir Excitement - Bursa Dvmmy


我觉得这篇文章的作者的功课很棒,若要看原帖可以点击下面的主题。文中作者指出了Weida的几 个隐忧,并认为产业的盈利大爆发应该在2015年第3季左右,这与我的想法不谋而合。或许唯一不同的地方就是Weida已是我的主力,我可能会有主观的思 维模式而Bursa Dvmmy则还没有买入,因此文中的看法会比较中立,文中的隐忧如下:
  • 管理层的3分钟热度,如杀鹅取卵的卖出Mutiara Goodyear的股权与开始要收成的种植业务。
  • 过去数年盈利的不稳定性
  • 建筑业务的营业额逐年减少
  • 管理层是否能够实现5年展望如生产业业务翻倍
  • 股市即将步入熊市(金融危机?)等等的潜在风险
我认为这些都是值得我们去研究并思考的因素,牛市第3期的投资都需要步步为营,多点研究自家投资的公司总是错不了的。


Weida: Property To Stir Excitement - Bursa Dvmmy
Friday, 11 July 2014

Recently Weida's share price has been pushed up by heavy volume. It seems like long term investors are taking position in this stock in anticipation of better financial results ahead.

Why better results? It's because Weida's investment in property development starts to bear fruits.

In its latest quarter of FY14Q4 which ended in Mac14, Weida registered its first ever revenue from property development at RM13.7mil, with a PBT of RM1.1mil.
This comes from the work progress of Urbana Residences @ Ara Damansara which was launched in the final quarter of calendar year 2013.
The development with GDV of RM230mil is almost fully sold.
So it is only about 6% of the GDV recognized. We can expect Urbana's sales to contribute massively to Weida in the next 2 years.
Furthermore, its RM350mil second project at Mont Kiara is on the verge of being launched soon. I guess Weida should not have a big problem to do well in Mont Kiara. It is the last chance before GST.
Both projects are joint-venture in which Weida holds 85% of them. The total GDV of RM580mil is quite a huge figure for a small company like Weida.

A 15% net profit margin will produce about RM74mil net profit after minority interest to be distributed in the next 3 years or so.

We can study Fitters to have a glimpse of how Weida will perform in the near future.

Both Weida & Fitters are very similar - mainly a manufacturer with construction business and then venture into property. It's just that Fitters entered property much earlier.

These 2 property projects by Weida were already made known to the public last year and it is predictable that Weida's share price will rise sooner or later. However, I still haven't put my money in it yet...
I notice that in high rise property construction, initial billing progress will be slow and little in the first 1-2 years after launch, and will spike in the third year or at least after the whole framework of the building is done.
As Urbana was launched in late 2013, I'm thinking to take position only after mid-2015, unless Weida is extremely undervalued at one point or its other business segment are doing extremely well. However, it seems like other business segment are not performing too well.
WEIDA (RM mil) FY14Q4 FY14Q3 FY14Q2 FY14Q1 FY13Q4
Revenue 81.5 80.5 71.3 88.0 96.9
PBT 11.3 4.9 1.9 14.0 3.3
PBT% 13.9 6.1 2.7 15.9 3.4
PATAMI 10.5 1.9 0.3 9.9 55.0






Manu Rev 47.5 50.9 38.2 54.2 44.5
Manu PBT 3.1 6.3 5.7 7.1 2.9
Work Rev 16.4 26.3 27.6 28.8 58.3
Work PBT 7.1 -0.2 0.2 6.7 6.7
Service Rev 4.0 3.3 5.5 5.0 4.7
Service PBT 0.5 0.9 -0.2 0.5 -0.2
Prop Rev 13.7 0.0 0.0

Prop PBT 1.1 -1.4 -3.5



WEIDA (RM mil) FY14 FY13 FY12 FY11 FY10 FY09
Revenue 321.4 380.6 309.7 285.9 276.2 267.9
Revenue growth % -15.6 22.9 8.3 3.5 3.1
PBT 32.0 30.2 30.1 34.5 28.0 26.6
PBT% 10.0 7.9 9.7 12.1 10.1 9.9
PATAMI 22.6 50.8 25.2 21.8 17.2 15.0
PATAMI growth % -55.5 101.6 15.6 26.7 14.7







Manu Rev 196.2 196.8 140.3 116.0

Manu PBT 23.5 23.1 14.1 15.2

Work Rev 93.6 184.7 141.8 142.4

Work PBT 12.5 19.4 22.9 22.7

Service Rev 17.8 27.9 27.4 27.5

Service PBT 1.7 1.2 -0.5 1.5

Prop Rev 13.7




Prop PBT -3.8











EPS 17.80 40.00 19.87 17.21 13.55 11.84
NTA 2.86 2.74








In an interview with The Edge in 2013, Weida's MD Datuk Lee has a 5-year plan:

Weida sold plantation asset to TH Plant in Oct 2012

So I think Weida has lost the opportunity to earn good recurring income with minimal extra cost for the next 20 years.

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