Industrial production growth in Jul 2014 fell off a cliff to +0.5% YoY
(Jun 2014: +7.0% YoY) in part due to the high base from last year.
IPI data was in line with trade data signaling tapering of GDP growth after robust 1H 2014. No change to our 2014 IPI forecast for now.
Global IP trends remain stable in June 2014 as near-term outlook remains positive.
Industrial production (IP) growth fell to a 17 month low of +0.5% YoY in July 2014 (Jun 2014: +7.0% YoY; Maybank-KE: +1.9% YoY; Consensus: +4.9% YoY) weighed down by a dip in mining output and lower expansion from factory activities. From the previous month, IP contracted by -2.9% MoM (Jun 2014: +0.1% MoM) while the seasonally adjusted measure fell by -3.8% MoM (s.a Jun 2014: +0.6% MoM). YTD 2014 growth averaged +4.6% YoY (YTD 2013: +3.8% YoY).
Mining output (Jul 2014: -7.9% YoY) was dragged down by Natural gas as it reported a sharp decline of -15.5% YoY (Jun 2014: +1.3% YoY). This was compounded by the -0.8% YoY contraction in crude oil production (Jun 2014: +1.6% YoY) which fell into the red for the first time 4 months. Weaker natural gas production coincided with softer exports data whereby LNG shipments in Jul 2014 fell by -22.9% YoY while its largest destination port of calling namely Japan saw a similar quantum of decline (Jul 2014: -22.1% YoY). The “Land of the rising sun” accounts for nearly 60% of Malaysia’s LNG exports.
Source: Maybank Research - 12 Sep 2014
IPI data was in line with trade data signaling tapering of GDP growth after robust 1H 2014. No change to our 2014 IPI forecast for now.
Global IP trends remain stable in June 2014 as near-term outlook remains positive.
Industrial production (IP) growth fell to a 17 month low of +0.5% YoY in July 2014 (Jun 2014: +7.0% YoY; Maybank-KE: +1.9% YoY; Consensus: +4.9% YoY) weighed down by a dip in mining output and lower expansion from factory activities. From the previous month, IP contracted by -2.9% MoM (Jun 2014: +0.1% MoM) while the seasonally adjusted measure fell by -3.8% MoM (s.a Jun 2014: +0.6% MoM). YTD 2014 growth averaged +4.6% YoY (YTD 2013: +3.8% YoY).
Mining output (Jul 2014: -7.9% YoY) was dragged down by Natural gas as it reported a sharp decline of -15.5% YoY (Jun 2014: +1.3% YoY). This was compounded by the -0.8% YoY contraction in crude oil production (Jun 2014: +1.6% YoY) which fell into the red for the first time 4 months. Weaker natural gas production coincided with softer exports data whereby LNG shipments in Jul 2014 fell by -22.9% YoY while its largest destination port of calling namely Japan saw a similar quantum of decline (Jul 2014: -22.1% YoY). The “Land of the rising sun” accounts for nearly 60% of Malaysia’s LNG exports.
Source: Maybank Research - 12 Sep 2014
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