2014年7月30日星期三

Weida

1. 你了解这家公司的生意模式吗？
Weida是一家大马上市公司上市于2001年至今已有13年. Weida有4个核心业务:
1)  制造Polyethylene相关的设备(Manufacturing of HDPE materials)
这项业务是最大的收入来源。Polyethylene是一种塑料由石油制造而成。Weida拥有高科技技术使用HDPE(Highdensity polyethylene)制造出储水容器(water storage tanks),水输送管(water distribution pipes),排污管/设备(sewerage solutions),道路交通用具(trafficequipment),农业用具(agricultural implements),化学容器(chemical storage)。目前拥有6家制造工厂位于Nilai,Kuching,Kota Kinabalu,Miri and Tawau还有一家是在菲律宾Manila。想了解Weida的产品制造可以观看Process of how to makelarge tanks with polyethylene.

2)  电信基础设施(Telecommunicationinfrastructure)
第二大收入来源。Weida提供了一个全面的电信基础设施从最初的建设安装到长期的维修(maintenance)服务。Weida可以从这项业务得到长 期合约,以收取电讯塔的租金,管理和维修费用为收入来源.这个业务的主要客户是Celcom,Maxis,Digi。这三个都是大马的电讯龙头所以这项业 务可以说是稳扎稳打。

3)  环境工程服务(Environment engineeringservices)
Weida的环境工程业务其实和它的制造业有关联性的,因为制造业制造的产品都可以发挥在此项业务。Weida环境工程业务包含污水处理/设施,再生能 源,雨水处理(帮助避免淹水),再生橡胶(用于制造轮胎,橡皮垫,靠船设备,鞋底/鞋垫)。目前拥有3个污水处理的长期合约位于 Kuching,Sibu,andMiri。环境工程的业务将会持续增加因为发展中国家都会慢慢改善环境处理。想了解污水处理可以观看Howa septic tank works.

4)  房地产(Property Development)
Weida在2013年也进军产业发展.目前拥有两个房地产计划。
  • Urbana Residences @ Ara Damansara
  
GDV=RM231million
  
GDC=RM185million
PAT=RM46million
NPM=20%
2013年已开始计划,预计2016年可以完成。Urbana Residences是其中一个被列为Top 10 architectural trends for newMalaysian properties in 2014. VIDEO

  • Mont Kiara
  
GDV=RM330million
  
GDC=RM264million
PAT=RM66million
NPM=20%
此项产业发展的资料并不多。不过根据IR给的资讯,project将会在今年11月launch,所以到时候就可以知道销售好不好。不过位于 MontKiara一带的产业我绝对有信心销售会很好。或许熟悉Mont Kiara一带的朋友可以听听你们的意见。要是这项产业需要3年完成，那么一年大约会有PAT RM22million。


5. 公司的管理层，管理素质如何？大股东丢票吗？回购公司股票吗？
Weida的MDDatuk Lee Choon Chin在2013年大胆放话公司的Manufacturing业务收入会在5年内增加1倍达到RM400million。Weida管理层在2012年 做了精明的决定把种植业务以RM151.37million卖给TH Plantation。Weida利用RM500million偿还银行贷款其余的留作营运资金。种植业务卖出后公司变成了净现金公司。当时的 plantation业务卖出价是以CPO平均价RM2831来计算。当时的CPO价格比目前还要高。当然Weida也有个“搞搞震”的第二大股东 Assar一直在卖票。详细分析可以看糊涂大大的文章Weida 过去一个月的交易纪录. 相信Assar就快要把票丢完了，到时候就有好看头了。不过我本身不喜欢大股东这样的作为,以后还是能避免就避免。Weida有过回购自己公司股票的记 录。 管理层也善用了amortisation的方法去减少税务支出同时又有一笔现金进入公司的口袋是个聪明的做法。寒江大大就完整了解释了Weida另一只看 不见的手，详细分析可以看Weida4 大炮.

6. 小环境：公司的基本面好不好？目前是不是被低估了？公司的基本技术面好不好？交易量如何？成长中？赚钱吗？高债务吗？年报会复杂吗？股息率？公司前景？

偿还能力：
从(Table1)可以看到Weida应付短期债务完全是没有问题的。以2014年，每RM1的短期负债就算扣除了流动资产的Inventory还有 RM2.47可以去偿还.再看看长期的偿还能力对Weida来说完全就是芝麻绿豆而已。扣除了短期和长期的债务Weida还有RM90million那么 盘大的现金在手.Weida不止是间赚钱的公司还握有盘大的现金，只要一看到很好的赚钱机会Weida手上的现金就可以直接hut下去.现金牛的公司就算 金融风暴来临时都会比没有现金的公司强壮许多。A profitable company could go bankrupt, but a company with positive cash flow will not.

公司效率:
从(Table1)可以看到Weida的2010年到2013年的Revenue都有在增长.2013年的增长高达32%那是因为Weida接到一次性的 政府工程(Discontinued operation)。不过在2014年却下跌了21.51%那是因为一些已经在去年接的工程进度差不多要完成了所以收入也没有比去年更多。再来看看净利 增长在2013年高达291%那是因为Weida把plantation业务卖了所以多了一笔(Discontinued operation)净利加上接到大工程所以净利增长那么多。2014年净利下跌了85.32%那是因为接到的工程项目需要先花一笔一次性的工程开销不过 相信接下来就是收成果的时候。Weida也在Urbana Residences这一项产业发展项目花了一笔marketingexpenses所以拉低了盈利。从图表也可以看到应收款项减少了22%，那是因为成 功的收到了被欠的巨额款项.应付账款也减少了23%，这是好现象证明Weida有能力偿还欠下的帐。CAPEX减少了21%对我来说是好事因为公司不需要 每次花巨额的费用来购买property,plant,equipment来让公司成长。

个别业务探讨:
Manufacturing:
由于MD Datuk Lee Choon Chin大胆放话公司的Manufacturing业务收入会在5年内增加1倍达到RM400million.相信manufacturing的成长空间 还是很大.以CAGR计算从RM198million在5年之内到达RM400million，每年Revenue增长必须要有15%的增长率.以目前 RM198million增长15%的话,2015年应该可以有个RM227million.要是Manufacturing cost 在2015年也会涨4%(inflation rate),那么2015年，manufacturing profit将会有RM46million.PAT会是RM34million,manufacturing EPS=RM0.27sen/year.要是加上其他业务EPS会变得很惊人。

Telecommunication:
Telecommunication的业务相信也可以继续增长因MCMC做出了以下的发表：
  • The  development of  telecommunication  infrastructure has  made further  progress  with the  recent announcement  from the  Malaysian  Communications  and Multimedia  Commission  (“MCMC”)  to  build 149 new  towers  in Sarawak  and  79 towers  in  Sabah. Under Budget  2014,  MCMC will build 1,000   telecommunication towersthroughout the country. The construction of these towers would begin by end of  2014 at the latest. Upon completion, the telecommunications coverage in Sarawak is expectedto rise to 90% in 2015.
至于废水处理和Services的业务也会跟着manufacturing和telecommucation一起成长，因为都是有连贯性的业务。

Property：
Urbana Residences @ Ara Damansara
  
GDV=RM231million
  
GDC=RM185million
PAT=RM46million
NPM=20%

2013年已开始计划,预计2016年可以完成。粗略计算目前大概完成了38%的工程。目前take up rate已经是90%，所以此项业务将可以贡献一笔可观的收入(90% x RM46million = RM41.4million)。由于2014年的property profit可能在没有订单的时候先付了一些费用所以profit还是个负数但是这些费用都可以从订单中赚回来，所以要是把费用加回 (RM41.4million+(RM3.841million*0.75)=RM44.3million)，Weida接下来产业的PAT计算应该会有 PAT RM44.3million入账.要是分成两年每年会有RM22.15million的税后盈利.那么单单是产业的EPS就等于 RM0.17sen/year.所以接下来的2015和2016年会很有看头.

投资指标:
Weida的5年平均ROE是8%，虽然不是我爱的标准>15%,不过由于是间net cash的公司加上公司前景明朗我就让这些优点盖过ROE.ROE8%代表公司运用RM1的股东基金帮股东赚取RM0.08的净利.以25/7/2014 的股价RM1.94来计算PE=1.94/0.178=10.9，以目前的Industry PE是16.35,假设Weida的PE可以高达15以现在的EPS RM0.178计算，那么股价就是RM2.67了，所以目前的股价只有RM1.94,还是属于被低估了。以目前NTA  RM2.86，公司要发红股并不 是问题，换个角度来看NTA RM2.86,股东只需要付RM1.94就能获得多余的RM0.92净有形资产，目前还是属于被低估的.以目前EPS=RM0.178和股价RM1.94 我们可以算出ROI=9%。现在虽然ROI只有9%不过Weida接下来会由于产业的业务而爆发,股价不变,到时后ROI就可以提高了.Weida也刚公 布了每股RM0.03sen的股息，D/Y只有1.66%,Dividend payout 是17%。虽然没有什么惊喜但是至少还有点股息收毕竟Weida的爆发点是接下来产业贡献的盈利.

要是2015年的EPS和2014年的EPS=RM0.178sen保持一样，再加上产业EPS=RM0.17sen，那么就等于EPS=RM0.35sen,股价还是RM1.94,那么PE只有1.94/0.35=5.54.

要是Weida的PE可以去到10，股价应该可以到达RM3.50.以股价RM1.94计算2015的ROI=0.35/1.94=18%.只需要投入RM1.94就可以得到18%的回凑。

2014年的EPS=RM0.178，等于每一季会有0.178/4=RM0.045sen。2015年预测产业EPS=RM0.17sen，等于每一季会有RM0.04sen.预测2015年Q1的EPS应该会有至少RM0.08sen.

Summary：
  • 有一笔净现金，没有钱到用时方恨少的烦恼
  • Net cash/share 是 RM0.71，其实你只付了RM1.94-Rm0.71=RM1.23
  • NTA>Share price
  • 预测2015年EPS可以达到RM0.35sen
  • 要是股价还是RM1.94,PE=1.94/0.35=5.54
  • 要是PE=10,股价就是RM3.50，以目前的股价，Weida被低估了。
  • 有股息,0.03sen,在11月之前买进都可享有股息
  • 产业会是接下来的爆点
  • 死Assar一直丢票，tnnd
  • 公司的业务都还是在赚钱
  • 管理层有远见，想要在5年以内，让manufacturing业务达到RevenueRM400million
  • MCMC想要在2014-2015在全国建1000个电讯塔，相信Weida可以受惠。
  • ROE5年平均只有8%<15 font="">
  • Weida Telecommunication/Water/Road 工程

  http://www.tlrsovereign.com/our-project/telecomunication-tower

 

 

Telecommunication Tower

List of Projects
No. Description of Works Clients Year
1 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at Lungmanis, Sandakan, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2007
2 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at Nabutan, Ranau, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2007
3 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at Seguntor, Sadakan, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2007
4 Design, Supply, Delivery, Installation, Testing and Commissiong of Telecommunication Structures (Tower, Monopole & Mast) and The Related Civil, Mechanical and Electrical Works at Taman Bukit Tiger, Tawau, Sabah. Arah Jitu Sdn Bhd 2007
5 Design, Supply, Delivery, Installation, Testing and Commissiong of Telecommunication Structures (Tower, Monopole & Mast) and The Related Civil, Mechanical and Electrical Works at Ladang Imam, Tawau, Sabah. Arah Jitu Sdn Bhd 2007
6 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at Tanjung Batu Keramat, Tawau, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2008
7 Cadangan Pembinaan Stesen Gelombang Untuk Pemancar Celcom (Menara 200 kaki) Di Labuk Moyo, Kg Sembirai, Kota Belud, Sabah. Celplus Sdn Bhd 2008
8 Cadangan Pembinaan Stesen Gelombang Untuk Pemancar Celcom (Menara 200 kaki) Di Kg Kolapis, Beluran, Sabah. Celplus Sdn Bhd 2008
9 Cadangan Pembinaan Stesen Gelombang Untuk Pemancar Celcom (Menara 200 kaki) Di Kg Bakong-Bakong, Beluran, Sabah. Celplus Sdn Bhd 2008
10 Cadangan Pembinaan Stesen Gelombang Untuk Pemancar Celcom (Menara 250 kaki) Di Kg Kaban Melamam, Sipitang, Sabah. Celplus Sdn Bhd 2008
11 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at Jalan Segama, Lahad Datu, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2008
12 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at Luasong Junction, Tawau, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2008
13 Cadangan Pembinaan Stesen Gelombang Untuk Pemancar Celcom (Menara 250 kaki) Di Simpang Mendulong, Sipitang, Sabah. Celplus Sdn Bhd 2008
14 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at Sungai Manila Sandakan, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2008
15 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at Kg Kilugus, Kuala Penyu, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2008
16 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at Tambisan, Lahad Datu, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2008
17 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at Sabah Forest Industry, Sipitang, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2008
18 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at Taman Megah, Sandakan, Sabh. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2008
19 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at Taman Indah Permai 2, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2008
20 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at Baturong 2 Estate, Kunak, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2008
21 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at Kg Katagadan, Lahad Datu, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2009
22 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at Mile 14/ Jalil Alip, Sandakan, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2009
23 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at Kg Dandulit/ Sungai Beruang, Sandakan, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2009
24 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at Kg Indarason, Kudat, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2009
25 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at Mile 18, Lahad Datu, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2009
26 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at  IOI Syarimol 7, Kinabatangan, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2009
27 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at  Kg Langkon, Kota Marudu, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2009
28 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at  Kg Bumiputra, Lahad Datu, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2009
29 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at Peringkat 3, Sg Manila, Sandakan, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2009
30 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at  Richard Lind, Sandakan, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2009
31 Provision of Constructing, Supplying, Erecting, Completing, Testing and Commissioning of 250 Feet 3 Legged Telecommiunication Tower (T2 EXP) at Part of Lot 01, Block 19, Arip Land District (Bumi Suria Plantation) – T3250177 Bumi Suria Ventures Sdn Bhd 2009
32 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at  Kg Bekapit, Kinabatangan, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2009
33 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at  Kapis Estate, Lahad Datu, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2009
34 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at  Pangkalan Lalasun, Sandakan, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2009
35 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at  Trusjaya Sukau, Kinabatangan, Sabah Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2010
36 Proposed Design, Construction, Erection, Completion, Testing and Commissioning of 40 Meter 4-Legged Eddy Covariance Tower at Naman Oil Plantation in Sibu Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2010
37 Proposed Design, Construction, Erection, Completion, Testing and Commissioning of 40 Meter 4-Legged Eddy Covariance Tower at Maludam National Park in Betong. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2010
38 Proposed Design, Construction, Erection, Completion, Testing and Commissioning of 40 Meter 4-Legged Eddy Covariance Tower at  Cermat Ceria Plantation in Betong Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2010
39 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at  Bukit Kimandau, Ranau, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2010
40 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at  Merungin, Ranau, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2010
41 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at  Timbua, Ranau, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2010
42 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at  Tibabar, Ranau, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2010
43 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at  Malinsau, Ranau, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2010
44 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at  Kg Paus, Ranau, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2010
45 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at  Kg Miluru, Ranau, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2011
46 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at  Kg Kinarasa, Ranau, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2011
47 The Proposed Site Preparation And Tower Works For Common Towers Technologies Sdn Bhd at  Kinabalu Park, Ranau, Sabah. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2011
48 Proposed, Design, Construction, Erection and Completion of T3 USP 76M 3 Light Duty Telecommunication Tower at Kg Tenagang, Kinabatangan, Sabah Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2011
49 Proposed, Design, Construction, Erection and Completion of T3 USP 76M 3 Light Duty Telecommunication Tower at Kg Sri Ganda, Kinabatangan, Sabah Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2011
50 Proposed, Design, Construction, Erection and Completion of T3 USP 76M 3 Light Duty Telecommunication Tower at Kembara Jaya, Kinabatangan, Sabah Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2011
51 Proposed, Design, Construction, Erection and Completion of T3 USP 76M 3 Light Duty Telecommunication Tower at SK Sangau, Kinabatangan, Sabah Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2011
52 Proposed, Design, Construction, Erection and Completion of T3 USP 76M 3 Light Duty Telecommunication Tower at Kg Paris Kwantas, Kinabatangan, Sabah Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2011
53 Proposed, Design, Construction, Erection and Completion of T3 USP 60M 3 Legged Heavy Duty Telecommunication Tower at Kg Jaya Baru, Kinabatangan, Sabah Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2011
54 Proposed, Design, Construction, Erection and Completion of T3 USP 60M 3 Slim Telecommunication Tower at Morisem 2, Kinabatangan, Sabah Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2011
55 Proposed, Design, Construction, Erection and Completion of T3 USP 76M 3 Light Duty Telecommunication Tower at Hamparan Badai, Kinabatangan, Sabah Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2012
56 Proposed, Design, Construction, Erection and Completion of T3 USP 60M 3 Legged Slim Telecommunication Tower at Kuala Serupai, Bintulu, Sarawak. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2011
57 Proposed, Design, Construction, Erection and Completion of T3 USP 76M 3 Legged Light Duty Telecommunication Tower at Ladang Silas, Bintulu, Sarawak. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2011
58 Proposed, Design, Construction, Erection and Completion of T3 USP 76M 3 Legged Light Duty Telecommunication Tower at SK Antaroh, Kapit, Sarawak. Weida Works Sdn Bhd 2013
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