Inflation rate remain elevated in Jun 2014 at +3.3% YoY from +3.2% YoY posted in May 2014.
Our measure of core inflation (excluding the key subsidised components of CPI) was stable at +2.1% YoY (May 2014: +2.2% YoY).
Keeping our full-year inflation rate forecast of +3.5% for now (YTD 2014: 3.4% YoY), pending the timing of government’s revamp on the fuel subsidy mechanism.
Inflation in Jun 2014 rose by +3.3% YoY (May 2014: +3.2% YoY; Maybank-KE: +3.3% YoY; Consensus: +3.3% YoY), mainly on contribution from sustained increases in the costs of “Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages”, “Transport” and “Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels”. From the previous month, headline inflation rose +0.2% MoM (May 2014: 0.1% MoM) while on quarterly perspective, inflation moderated in 2Q 2014 to +3.3% YoY (1Q 2014: +3.5% YoY).
“Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages” (FNAB) rate of price increase nudged up to remain above 3.0% for the 17th successive month (Jun 2014: +3.5 % YoY; May 2014: +3.3% YoY). FNAB rose +0.5% MoM (May 2014: +0.1% MoM), which is the highest jump since Jan 2014 mainly on higher prices for fish and seafood. The higher risk of “El-Nino” in 2H 2014 may cause continued upward pressures on FNAB.
“Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels” (HWEGOF) continue to rise at +3.2% YoY (May 2014: +3.1% YoY). From the previous month, the HWEGOF group rose +0.1% MoM, (May 2014: 0.5% MoM), indicating minimal impact from the knock-on effect of Gas Malaysia Berhad’s 20% increase in gas prices for industrial use (i.e. non-power sector) effective 1 May 2014.
“Transport” and “Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco” stays elevated. “Transport” rose by +5.5% YoY (May 2014: +5.5% YoY), while “Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco” sustained its double-digit rise since Oct 2013 i.e. +11.6% YoY in Jun 2014 (May 2014: +14.1% YoY). This reflects ongoing impact from the hike in duties on cigarettes in Oct 2013 as well as brewers raising selling prices on 17 Mar 2014.
Services inflation maintains its pace, as per the trends in services-related component of CPI, namely “Health” (Jun 2014: +3.1% YoY; May 2014: +2.4% YoY), “Recreation Services & Culture” (Jun 2014: +1.9% YoY; May 2014: +1.9% YoY), “Restaurants & Hotels” (Jun 2014: +4.9% YoY; May 2014: +4.9% YoY), and “Miscellaneous Goods & Services” (Jun 2014: +1.2% YoY; May 2014: +1.1% YoY).
Source: Maybank Research - 17 Jul 2014
Our measure of core inflation (excluding the key subsidised components of CPI) was stable at +2.1% YoY (May 2014: +2.2% YoY).
Keeping our full-year inflation rate forecast of +3.5% for now (YTD 2014: 3.4% YoY), pending the timing of government’s revamp on the fuel subsidy mechanism.
Inflation in Jun 2014 rose by +3.3% YoY (May 2014: +3.2% YoY; Maybank-KE: +3.3% YoY; Consensus: +3.3% YoY), mainly on contribution from sustained increases in the costs of “Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages”, “Transport” and “Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels”. From the previous month, headline inflation rose +0.2% MoM (May 2014: 0.1% MoM) while on quarterly perspective, inflation moderated in 2Q 2014 to +3.3% YoY (1Q 2014: +3.5% YoY).
“Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages” (FNAB) rate of price increase nudged up to remain above 3.0% for the 17th successive month (Jun 2014: +3.5 % YoY; May 2014: +3.3% YoY). FNAB rose +0.5% MoM (May 2014: +0.1% MoM), which is the highest jump since Jan 2014 mainly on higher prices for fish and seafood. The higher risk of “El-Nino” in 2H 2014 may cause continued upward pressures on FNAB.
“Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels” (HWEGOF) continue to rise at +3.2% YoY (May 2014: +3.1% YoY). From the previous month, the HWEGOF group rose +0.1% MoM, (May 2014: 0.5% MoM), indicating minimal impact from the knock-on effect of Gas Malaysia Berhad’s 20% increase in gas prices for industrial use (i.e. non-power sector) effective 1 May 2014.
“Transport” and “Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco” stays elevated. “Transport” rose by +5.5% YoY (May 2014: +5.5% YoY), while “Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco” sustained its double-digit rise since Oct 2013 i.e. +11.6% YoY in Jun 2014 (May 2014: +14.1% YoY). This reflects ongoing impact from the hike in duties on cigarettes in Oct 2013 as well as brewers raising selling prices on 17 Mar 2014.
Services inflation maintains its pace, as per the trends in services-related component of CPI, namely “Health” (Jun 2014: +3.1% YoY; May 2014: +2.4% YoY), “Recreation Services & Culture” (Jun 2014: +1.9% YoY; May 2014: +1.9% YoY), “Restaurants & Hotels” (Jun 2014: +4.9% YoY; May 2014: +4.9% YoY), and “Miscellaneous Goods & Services” (Jun 2014: +1.2% YoY; May 2014: +1.1% YoY).
Source: Maybank Research - 17 Jul 2014
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