2014年7月31日星期四

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 31 July 2014


Author: kiasutrader   |   Publish date: Thu, 31 Jul 09:35

Asia
China's Local GDP Data Points To Recovery, Rebalancing. China's regional economies enjoyed a revival in growth in the second quarter, data from provincial governments showed, chiming with earlier figures that suggest a burst of government stimulus measures is re-invigorating activity. Of the 30 regions and provinces that released their local gross domestic product (GDP) data, 23 reported first-half economic growth accelerated from the first quarter. About three quarters posted growth that was higher than the national average of 7.4% in the first six months. (Reuters)
Americas
U.S. Economy Back On Track With Strong Second-Quarter Rebound. The U.S. economy rebounded sharply in the second quarter as consumers stepped up spending and businesses restocked, putting it on course to close out the year on solid footing. Gross domestic product expanded at a 4.0% annual rate after shrinking at a revised 2.1% pace in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. The government previously had said the economy contracted at a 2.9% rate at the start of the year. The second-quarter expansion was much stronger than the 3.0% economists had expected and added to manufacturing and services sector data in bolstering the outlook for the remainder of the year. (Reuters)
Fed Sees Labor-Market Slack Even After Unemployment Rate Dropped. The Federal Reserve said the labor market still has plenty of room for improvement, even after a surprising drop in unemployment, bolstering the case for keeping interest rates low. “A range of labor-market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources,” the Federal Open Market Committee said today in a statement in Washington, dropping language that unemployment is “elevated.” The Fed also said inflation has risen closer to its goal. Policy makers continued to trim the asset purchases that have pumped up the Fed’s balance sheet to a record $4.41tril. They tapered monthly bond buying to $25bil in their sixth consecutive $10-bil cut, staying on pace to end the purchase program in October. (Bloomberg)
U.S. Private Sector Adds 218,000 Jobs In July. U.S. companies hired 218,000 workers in July, marking four straight month of private job growth above 200,000, but the figure fell short of what analysts projected and the previous month's level, a report by a payrolls processor released on Wednesday showed. Private job gains in June were 281,000, which was the strongest reading since November 2012. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast that the ADP National Employment Report would show a gain of 230,000 jobs. The report is jointly developed with Moody's Analytics. (Reuters)
U.S. Economic Growth For Second Half Of 2013 Revised Higher. U.S. economic growth was far stronger than previously estimated in the second half of 2013, which could help to explain a sharp drop in the unemployment rate during the period. Gross domestic product increased at a 4.0% pace in the July-December period, according to the Commerce Department's annual GDP revisions published on Wednesday. That compared to a previous estimate of 3.4%. (Reuters)
Argentina Fails To Reach Debt Agreement, Default Looms. Argentina failed to strike a deal to avert its second default in more than 12 years after talks with holdout creditors ended without a settlement on Wednesday. The country's economy minister, Axel Kicillof, speaking at a news conference at the Argentine consulate in New York, repeatedly referred to the holdout hedge funds as "vultures" after two days of talks failed to produce an agreement. After defaulting in 2002, Argentina restructured its debt in 2005 and 2010. More than 90% of the bondholders agreed to accept new bonds with reduced payments. The holdouts refused the terms, and were awarded $1.33bil, plus interest, by a U.S. judge. (Reuters)
Europe
Euro Zone Sentiment Improves, Overcoming Ukraine Crisis Concern. Euro zone economic sentiment unexpectedly improved in July despite the deepening crisis between the West and Russia over Ukraine, data showed on Wednesday, and inflation expectations among consumers and companies edged up. Consumer morale rose in three of the euro zone's five biggest economies, led by Italy and followed by France and the Netherlands, while the bloc's growth engine Germany and Spain saw sentiment worsening. The monthly economic sentiment index for the 18 countries sharing the euro rose to 102.2 in July from a revised 102.1 in June. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast a drop to 101.8 in July. (Reuters)
Spain Growth Beats Bank Of Spain Estimate Even As Prices Fall. Spanish second-quarter growth beat the Bank of Spain’s estimate as economists say domestic demand supported a recovery in the euro region’s fourth-largest economy even as prices fell this month. The Madrid-based National Statistics Institute today said that gross domestic product rose 0.6% from the first quarter, more than the forecast of 0.5% released last week by the Bank of Spain. Consumer prices fell 0.3% from a year ago in July, INE said in a separate release. (Bloomberg)
German Inflation Cools As ECB Stimulus Takes Time To Work. German inflation slowed this month, adding to signs that the European Central Bank’s unprecedented stimulus for the euro area will take a while to bolster the currency region’s prices. Inflation in the bloc’s largest economy, calculated using a harmonized European Union method, slowed to 0.8% in July from 1% in June, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. That matched the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Prices rose 0.3% on the month, compared with a median estimate of 0.2%. (Bloomberg)
Ukraine Economy Shrinks Faster As Conflict Takes Its Toll. Ukraine's economic decline has accelerated as fighting between the army and pro-Russian separatists in the east took a heavy toll on industry and other economic activity in the last three months. The national statistics office said on Wednesday the economy contracted by 4.7% in the second quarter compared with the same period last year and shrank by 2.3% in the three months from April, when the separatist rebellion began, to June. That followed a 1.1% fall in gross domestic product in the first three months of the year and reflected the impact of the conflict on industry in two eastern regions that usually contribute almost 16% of Ukraine's GDP. (Reuters)
Currencies
Dollar Pares Gains After Fed Statement. The dollar pared gains against the yen and most major currencies following a statement from the Federal Reserve delivered Wednesday afternoon in which the central bank said it believes the labor market remains unstable despite recent signs that economic growth is accelerating. The dollar was at 102.85 yen Wednesday afternoon, up from ¥102.10 Tuesday evening. The euro was trading at $1.3389, down from $1.3411 late Tuesday. The ICE U.S. dollar index, a measure of the greenback’s performance against six other currencies, was at 81.4010 Wednesday, up from 81.2140 Tuesday. (MarketWatch)
Commodities
Oil Prices Tumble On Ample Supply, Weak Demand. Oil prices tumbled on Wednesday, with Brent leading the decline weakened by excess supplies in Europe and Asia while U.S. crude followed suit despite a larger-than-expected drop in nationwide stockpiles. A weekly report released on Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed crude inventories fell by 3.7 million barrels last week, while gasoline and distillate stocks rose. Brent crude fell $1.21 to settle at $106.51 a barrel. U.S. crude slipped 70 cents to settle at $100.27 a barrel, after hitting a low of $99.90. (Reuters)
Gold Traders Brush Aside Signs Fed In No Hurry To Raise Rates. Gold futures ended lower on Wednesday, but traders largely shrugged off a statement from the Federal Reserve hinting the U.S. central bank was in no rush to hike interest rates, which would reduce appetite for the precious metal. Spot gold maintained earlier losses and was down 0.2% at $1,295.79 an ounce by 2:34 p.m. EDT (1834 GMT), below the previous close of $1,298.10. Prices were under pressure throughout much of the session after quarterly U.S. economic growth accelerated more than expected. Spot silver was up 0.2% to $20.55 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.1% to $1,474.40 an ounce, and palladium gained 0.02% to $875.40 an ounce. (Reuters)

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