2014-04-14 13:08
或许，公司虽然不是直接享受到兴业资本的赚益，真正的收入只有来自它的股息，不过，侨丰控股手持大笔现金，目前养兵蓄锐，仍然在等待机会。
上星期才说了4月4日，本期见报的日期，一样是不大吉利：14-04-14。
不过，既然上期已言明我们百无禁忌，所以数字重现我们一样不大理会，也无需再做文章，不过我们由此联想到技术分析。
相信数字代表某种玄机的人，着迷于数字运作，所以只要有数字，他就有解释，乃至于风水、时辰亦然。
这和我们相信基本分析的人格格不入，相信技术分析者也是如此。基本上我们不大理会技术面，不过还是有许多技术派的好友进行相劝。
他们认为，就算是基本面为核心分析，在决定买卖时，如果参考技术面，可在股票超买、超卖、徘徊时刻进行不同的进场或离场策略，增加回酬率，何乐而不为？
马股挑战历史高点
这和风水时辰数字同出一辙，精于此道者如五行运算，如何相生相克，趋吉避凶，何乐而不为？
所以，关于上周的数字清谈，我们本周只有一点补充：我们不尽相信，但也不嗤之以鼻；反而，任何在这些领域有所成就的人，我们都给予尊重，毕竟天下之大，无奇不有，我们不接受，有时只是自己肤浅而已，不代表他人不行。
近来美国股市相当不稳定，有时一天波幅高达2%，让我们不自觉的担心它会向下调整。
马股何其不是这样，近来股市很接近历史高点，因此许多股项蠢蠢欲动。
不过，大家也十分担心万一挑战高点失败，下行的风险，因此观望者更多。看来，不是“旗”在动，是“心”在动。
股价被低估36%
在2013年财政年，我们发现侨丰每股净资产已增至2.68令吉，不过由于它大部份的价值来自兴业资本股权，所以许多投资者不愿意买入，因此价钱仍然徘徊在1.60-1.70令吉。
而它一直认购兴业资本的股息再投资计划，目前已持有9.91%的股权，兴业资本的股价也已增至8.40令吉。
此外，2013年公司营业额只有6千万，拜兴业资本的贡献，净盈利却达1.95亿，或是每股20仙，派息7.5仙。
或许，公司虽然不是直接享受到兴业资本的赚益，真正的收入只有来自它的股息，不过，侨丰控股手持大把现金，目前养兵蓄锐，仍然在等待机会。
随着其资产的一直增加，公司股价如果不一致行动，折价将越来越大，目前的1.72令吉，折价36%。
迟早会被重估
在目前这种市场，股价被低估的实力派公司，迟早会被重估来反映其真正价值，不但如此，我们也不妨想想，如果兴业资本一路上扬，一、两年后会是什么光景？
股东大会近了，到时可以打听一下黄氏会有什么动作，因此买进。
不但如此，我们也趁还有点钱，买进侨丰的另一家公司1万股，侨丰创投（OSKVI，每股62仙），以及它的凭单2万股，每股18仙。
看来我们虽然有意进军种植股，不过一些股项继续以诱人的价值逼使我们改辕易辙，没增加到油棕业的投资。
从没让股东失望
我们前个星期买入的O股，是侨丰控股（OSK），今年我们似乎对OSK的股项特别喜欢，买了又买。
继侨丰产业（OSKPROP），我们买入辟捷控股（PJDEV）及其凭单，然后买入侨丰控股（OSK）。
这都是健诚的主意，到底是什么原因，让他爱上了侨丰集团呢？
原因就在其掌舵人丹斯里黄宗华，我们在2月时曾介绍过他。
卖掉侨丰投资银行，果然是明智的选择，这为他制造了卷土重来，再战江湖的机会。
两间产业公司互瞄眉头
他旗下的侨丰产业和辟捷控股，正经历历史性的盈利，想来我们还真有点后悔卖掉侨丰产业的凭单。
我们这期看看他的心头最爱，侨丰控股。
我们记得丹斯里在卖掉投资银行时，曾慨慨而言，二十年来OSK从没让股东失望，也没错过派息，因此，他希望股东们再次投塔信任票，让他率领股东再攀高峰。
我们向70岁高龄，不过野心和理想却如30岁的丹斯里致敬。
一年下来，其两间产业公司率先开跑，互瞄眉头。
2012年没了投资银行之后，换来2.45亿单位兴业资本（RHBCAP）的股票（当时估价7.22令吉）和2.085亿令吉现金。
当时侨丰的净资产约每股2.40令吉。之后丹斯里进行了一次全面收购，出价1.68令吉，时至今日，其股权高达38.5%。
【免责声明】
除了股票基本面，本文内容纯属虚构，所有提及股项纯属学术上或经验上的建议，读者若有兴趣投资，应该自行深入研究或询问股票经纪才决定，盈亏自负。
我们鼓励通过正确的投资方式创造财富，文中的建议，都有一个完整的买卖纪录。
Lower soybean output and better palm oil exports to keep CPO prices above RM2,600: Analysts
PETALING JAYA: Lower soybean production and
better palm oil exports are likely to sustain crude palm oil (CPO)
prices above RM2,600 a tonne on average this year, with most analysts
putting the figure at RM2,700.
MIDF Research has
maintained its positive outlook on the plantation sector, expecting CPO
prices to average RM2,700 a tonne this year.
The
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected a slight
decline in global soybean production in April to 284 million tonnes,
down 1.4 million from last month. This was mainly due to the expectation
of lower soybean production in Brazil, which is one of the major world
soybean producers.
USDA also forecasts Brazil's soybean production in April to be 87.5 million tonnes, down 1 million from that in March.
"The expectation of lower soybean supply has driven soybean prices higher and widened the discount of palm oil to soybean.
Currently,
CPO price is 13.8% lower than soybean price (the discount in value term
is US$131 per tonne). If the discount continues to widen, this will
help CPO price to sustain above the current level as buyer will prefer
more palm oil due to its price attractiveness," said MIDF in its report
last Friday.
Meanwhile, Hong Leong Investment Bank
Research (HLIB Research) has maintained its neutral call on the sector,
keeping its 2014-2015 CPO price forecast at RM2,700 per tonne, with
positive factors being improved demand outlook and better production
cost visibility.
"Exports declined by 8%
month-on-month to 1.24 million tonnes, mainly on lower exports to China
(-28%), India (-30.2%) and Pakistan (-55.6%). We believe the weak
shipments to the key markets is due mainly to the relatively high palm
oil stockpile in China and the reduced price attractiveness of CPO
against soybean oil during the month (which in turn deterred price
sensitive CPO consumers from buying aggressively)," it said.
However,
independent market surveyor Intertek reported that palm oil shipments
from Malaysia rose by 4.4% month-on-month to 307,000 tonnes in the first
10 days of April 2014.
"While the uptrend in CPO
output will likely continue, we believe higher CPO exports will likely
bring down CPO stockpile in Apr 2014 as the recent improvement in the
price attractiveness of CPO price (arising from lower CPO price and
higher soybean oil price) will likely boost CPO exports in the near
term."
HLIB Research said catalysts for the sector
include earlier-than-expected recovery in the world's major economies,
resulting in higher edible oil demand and prices; timely implementation
of higher biodiesel mandate in Indonesia and Malaysia; and weather
uncertainties which would result in supply distortion, hence boosting
prices of edible oil.
Meanwhile, risks include
higher-than-expected soybean yield and soybean planting, resulting in
lower soybean prices and hence lower prices of CPO, and if India imposes
higher import duty on CPO.
PublicInvest Research
maintained its overweight call on the sectors, favouring exposure to
stocks like Genting Plantations, Sime Darby, Ta Ann and TSH Resources.
"Monthly
CPO production in Peninsular Malaysia and East Malaysia were up 18.8%
and 15.9% respectively. Overall, Malaysia's production has risen 17.3%
to 1.49 million tonnes while fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield averaged at
1.41 tonnes per hectare, which is significantly higher than 1.22 tonnes
per hectare in February. We expect production to be stronger in the
coming months after the end of the low-cycle period," it said.
PublicInvest
Research also expects better exports in April based on Intertek's
report of higher exports in the first 10 days of April.
"The
weaker CPO prices, which have contracted more than 5.5% in the last one
month, might attract demand from major consuming countries ahead of the
Hari Raya celebrations in July as well as the concern on El Nino, which
might occur in June-August."
Source : TheSunDaily
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