THE
most-severe drought in 17 years is threatening supplies of palm oil
from Indonesia and Malaysia, the world’s biggest producers, and
forecasters say an El Nino weather pattern this year may cause even more
damage.
The countries got less than 50 millimetres (two inches)
of rain in January and February in some growing areas, the driest spell
since 1997. Conditions stressed palm fruits that are crushed to make the
world’s most-consumed vegetable oil. Now, meteorologists see increasing
chances of an El Nino as early as July that would parch farms from
Thailand to Australia.
Prospects for reduced output and rising
global demand sent palm-oil futures to an 18-month high in March,
boosting costs for top importers India and China. Prices may surge as
much as 32 per cent to RM3,500 (US$1,073) a metric tonne by February or
March if evidence emerges of a prolonged drought, said Dorab Mistry, a
director at Godrej International Ltd, who correctly forecast the price
peak in the first quarter.
“Even before El Nino arrives, we’ll
start seeing lower-than-expected production,” said Alvin Tai, an analyst
at RHB Investment Bank Bhd in Kuala Lumpur, who’s covered plantations
for 10 years. If El Nino arrives, prices may top RM3,000, up from
RM2,654 yesterday, he said.
Oil palms thrive in tropical regions
near the equator with rain ranging from 1,500 millimetres to 4,000
millimetres a year without dry periods of more than a month, according
to Barclays Plc. Studies show that less than 100 millimetres over two
consecutive months can reduce output by five per cent over the next
three years, while droughts longer than six months cut production by 20
per cent, analysts including Ephrem Ravi and Krishan Agarwal wrote in
January.
Drought has a delayed impact on the bunches of
cherry-sized palm fruits which are harvested all year round. Output
would start dropping about six months after the tropical plants are
deprived of sufficient moisture, said Joelianto, trading director in
Jakarta at PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources & Technology, a unit of
Golden Agri-Resources Ltd.
All climate models surveyed by
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology indicate El Nino is likely this year,
the forecaster said April 22. The US Climate Prediction Center on April
10 put the chances at 65 per cent, up from 52 per cent. Palm is among
the most-vulnerable crops to El Nino weather, Goldman Sachs Group Inc
said in an April 13 report.
At the time of the last strong El
Nino, in 1997 to 1998, Indonesian production dropped 7.1 per cent and
Malaysian output fell 5.5 per cent, US Department of Agriculture data
show. The two countries account for about 86 percent of world supply.
“I
expect an El Nino rally to begin only after we see pronounced dry
weather in the palm belt,” Mistry said by e-mail on April 23. “The hype
about an El Nino has been around for some months and the market has
adopted a ‘show me the money’ attitude. Until El Nino actually manifests
itself clearly and strongly, the market rally will have to wait.”
Nestle
SA, the world’s largest food company and the maker of Kit Kat in
Europe, said its product prices aren’t linked to short-term changes in
raw-material costs. The Vevey, Switzerland-based company buys 410,000
tonnes of palm oil a year for use in ice creams, chocolate coatings and
fried noodles, Philippe Aeschlimann, a spokesman, said in an April 24
email.
Unilever, which sells more than 400 brands of food and home
products, including Ben & Jerry’s ice cream and Flora spreads and
cooking oils, buys about 1.5 million tonnes of palm and its derivatives a
year. The London- and Rotterdam-based company didn’t respond to an
April 24 email seeking comment.
The drought in January and
February was already the worst in parts of Sumatra and Peninsular
Malaysia for that period since 1997, according to Donald Keeney, a
meteorologist at MDA Weather Services in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Average
rainfall for those months ranges from 250 millimetres in northwestern
Malaysia to more than 800 millimeters in northern Kalimantan and parts
of East Malaysia, Keeney said by e-mail on April 24.
“The damage
is already done,” said Ben Santoso, an analyst in Singapore with DBS
Vickers Securities Pte Ltd who has tracked the industry for 17 years.
“Even though the rainfall has returned to normal, it’s probably a little
bit too late. Output during the peak harvesting season will not be as
high as previous years because of the drought that we saw in January and
February and that’s before El Nino.” — Bloomberg
KOTA KINABALU: Sabah is moving
towards harnessing the 20 million tonnes of biowaste generated by the
state’s oil palm sector annually.
A joint venture company
initiated by Agensi Innovasi Malaysia (AIM) will be set up to collect
biomass from oil palm plantations and industries large enough to sustain
downstream activities, including the manufacture of pellets and
bio-chemicals.
State industrial development and research director
Patrick Tan said although Sabah’s oil palm sector had been generating
tonnes of waste or biomass every year, aggregating them for further
processing had been a problem.
“This is because existing pricing
mechanisms and transportation costs are major inhibitors as mills are
scattered over a wide area,” he said.
He said details of the joint venture entity would be unveiled
at the fifth Malaysia International Palm Oil Technology Expo 2014
(Palmex Malaysia) in the east coast Sandakan district from May 21 to May
23.
“This joint venture company will have a major impact in the
realisation of large-scale oil palm biomass utilisation industries in
Sabah, which is potentially worth billions of ringgit,” said Tan, the
events’ organising chairman.
He said Palmex was important to
Sabah as it continued to push for value-added industries using palm oil
as well as biomass generated from plantations and mills.
“The
state government has lent its support to the event because of the
importance of the oil palm industry to Sabah’s economy, contributing to
about 30% of the state’s annual GDP.”
Chief Minister Datuk Seri Musa Aman is scheduled to launch Palmex 2014 on May 21 at the Sandakan Community Centre.
Palm tocotrienols may slow the progression of brain-degenerating white matter lesions
PR Newswire
MINNEAPOLIS, April 29, 2014
MINNEAPOLIS, April 29, 2014
/PRNewswire/ -- While you may know about your brain's gray matter, did
you also know that about 50 percent of your brain is made of white
matter? The health of your brain's white matter affects how well it
learns and functions. This is also the area of the brain most often
affected by stroke. Now results of a two-year human clinical study
published in the American Heart Association journal, Stroke, show that
vitamin E tocotrienols derived from Malaysian palm oil may support white
matter health by weakening the progression of white matter lesions.
This is the first study that provides solid evidence of tocotrienols'
neuroprotective benefits in humans. Why health professionals are concerned about white matter lesions
White matter lesions (WMLs) are abnormal regions in the brain that
can be detected by MRIs. They are often found in elderly people, and are
associated with atherosclerosis in the small blood vessels of the
brain, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. If the condition worsens,
WMLs may result in cognitive impairment and dementia. "Injury to the
brain's white matter has been reported to be the major cause of
functional disability in cerebrovascular disease," confirmed researcher
Prof. Yuen Kah Hay, PhD.
Previous animal studies have reported that vitamin E tocotrienols
derived from palm oil are capable of preventing damage to white matter
during a stroke, and improved circulation to the damaged part of the
brain after a stroke.
"This new study is very significant," commented Kalyana Sundram,
PhD, a member of the research team. "Many compounds have been shown to
display neuroprotective effects in animal models of stroke. But they
failed in human clinical trials. This may be because the human brain has
so much more white matter (about 50 percent) than rats (about 10
percent), for example." Human clinical study shows promise for preserving brain health
In this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, leading tocotrienol researchers at the University Science Malaysia, Penang, Malaysia,
followed 121 volunteers for two years. Each volunteer underwent MRIs to
confirm the presence of WMLs. One group received 200 mg. of mixed
tocotrienols (available in the U.S. as Tocovid SupraBio) twice daily for
two years, while the others received a placebo. All volunteers were
instructed to maintain their regular diets and physical activity levels.
MRIs were performed at entry into the study (baseline), and then
repeated after one year and again after two years.
There was no statistical difference after the first year; however,
results after year two were exciting. At two years of supplementation,
the mean WML volume of the placebo group increased whereas those who
received palm tocotrienols remained unchanged. The principal researcher
concluded that supplementation with palm tocotrienols (Tocomin SupraBio)
attenuates the progression of white matter lesions.
Brain white matter lesions are not only linked to increased stroke
risk, but they are also known to be linked to development of other
neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease.
"Regular supplementation with palm tocotrienols could prove beneficial
in the overall maintenance of good health," said Dr. Sundram.
This study shows that taking palm-derived tocotrienols daily may be
an easy way to be proactive about your brain health, especially if you
are at high risk for stroke.
Additional information about the health benefits of palm tocotrienols can be found at www.palmoilhealth.org.
Workers inspect the quality of harvested oil palm fruit outside the processing mill at... Read More
The most-severe drought in 17 years
is threatening supplies of palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia,
the world’s biggest producers, and forecasters say an El Nino
weather pattern this year may cause even more damage.
The countries got less than 50 millimeters (2 inches) of
rain in January and February in some growing areas, the driest
spell since 1997. Conditions stressed palm fruits that are
crushed to make the world’s most-consumed vegetable oil, used in
Pop-Tarts, Oreo cookies and Twix candy bars. Now, meteorologists
see increasing chances of an El Nino as early as July that would
parch farms from Thailand to Australia.
Prospects for reduced output and rising global demand sent
palm-oil futures to an 18-month high in March, boosting costs
for top importers India and China. Prices may surge as much as
33 percent to 3,500 ringgit ($1,074) a metric ton by February or
March if evidence emerges of a prolonged drought, said Dorab Mistry, a director at Godrej International Ltd., who correctly
forecast the price peak in the first quarter.
“Even before El Nino arrives, we’ll start seeing lower-than-expected production,” said Alvin Tai, an analyst at RHB
Investment Bank Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur, who’s covered plantations
for 10 years. If El Nino arrives, prices may top 3,000 ringgit,
up from 2,636 ringgit today, he said.
Oil palms thrive in tropical regions near the equator with
rain ranging from 1,500 millimeters to 4,000 millimeters a year
without dry periods of more than a month, according to Barclays
Plc. Studies show that less than 100 millimeters over two
consecutive months can reduce output by 5 percent over the next
three years, while droughts longer than six months cut
production by 20 percent, analysts including Ephrem Ravi and
Krishan Agarwal wrote in January.
Delayed Reaction
Drought has a delayed impact on the bunches of cherry-sized
palm fruits which are harvested all year round. Output would
start dropping about six months after the tropical plants are
deprived of sufficient moisture, said Joelianto, trading
director in Jakarta at PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources & Technology,
a unit of Golden Agri-Resources Ltd. (GGR)
All climate models surveyed by Australia’s Bureau of
Meteorology indicate El Nino is likely this year, the forecaster
said April 22. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center on April 10
put the chances at 65 percent, up from 52 percent. Palm is among
the most-vulnerable crops to El Nino weather, Goldman Sachs
Group Inc. said in an April 13 report.
At the time of the last strong El Nino, in 1997-1998,
Indonesian production dropped 7.1 percent and Malaysian output
fell 5.5 percent, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show. The
two countries account for about 86 percent of world supply.
Competing Oils
Reduced supply would put more pressure on inventories, with
global demand forecast by the USDA at an all-time high of 57.3
million tons, up 4.6 percent from a year earlier. Reserves in
Malaysia were 1.69 million tons in March, 36 percent less than
the record 2.63 million tons in December 2012, according to the
Palm Oil Board.
A palm rally may be undermined by competing vegetable oils.
World production of soybean oil will reach a record 44.6 million
tons in the 2013-2014 season, after bigger crops in Brazil and
the U.S., while farmers harvested the most canola ever last year
in Canada, the top producer, USDA data show. Soybean-oil futures
are 13 percent cheaper than a year ago, trading at 43 cents a
pound today in Chicago.
U.S. growers will plant a record 81.493 million acres to
soybeans this year, the USDA said on March 31. In the Midwest,
where most of the crop is grown, El Nino weather tends to bring
cooler, wetter conditions that aid crop development and yields.
Biofuel Use
The 16 percent rally in palm-oil futures over the past year
hurt demand. India, the largest importer, cut purchases in March
by 23 percent from a year earlier to 537,077 tons, down for a
third straight month, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of
India said April 15. Purchases of soybean oil quadrupled to
189,150 tons and sunflower oil rose 8 percent, group data show.
Higher costs mean Indonesia will use 2.4 million tons of
palm oil to make biodiesel this year, less than its target of
3.4 million tons, according to Fadhil Hasan, executive director
of the Palm Oil Association in Jakarta.
It’s also possible El Nino may not occur, or will be slow
to develop, and that its impact on weather in Asia may be less
severe than forecast.
Futures for the benchmark palm-oil contract on the Bursa
Malaysia Derivatives exchange in Kuala Lumpur dropped 9.6
percent from a high of 2,916 ringgit on March 11, leaving prices
down 0.9 percent this year after rains in recent weeks eased
damage concerns. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast through May
5 for Johor and Pahang, the biggest producing states in
Peninsular Malaysia, according to the Meteorological Department.
Palm Belt
“I expect an El Nino rally to begin only after we see
pronounced dry weather in the palm belt,” Mistry said by e-mail
on April 23. “The hype about an El Nino has been around for
some months and the market has adopted a ‘show me the money’
attitude. Until El Nino actually manifests itself clearly and
strongly, the market rally will have to wait.” Nestle SA (NESN), the world’s largest food company and the maker
of Kit Kat in Europe, said its product prices aren’t linked to
short-term changes in raw-material costs. The Vevey,
Switzerland-based company buys 410,000 tons of palm oil a year
for use in ice creams, chocolate coatings and fried noodles,
Philippe Aeschlimann, a spokesman, said in an April 24 e-mail. Unilever (ULVR), which sells more than 400 brands of food and home
products, including Ben & Jerry’s ice cream and Flora spreads
and cooking oils, buys about 1.5 million tons of palm and its
derivatives a year. The London- and Rotterdam-based company
didn’t respond to an April 24 e-mail seeking comment.
Rising Costs
Hindustan Unilever Ltd. (HUVR), a Mumbai-based unit, saw “a sharp
rise in palm-oil prices” during its fourth quarter, Chief
Financial Officer Sridhar Ramamurthy said on an earnings
conference call yesterday. Higher raw-material costs, including
palm oil, coffee and tea, may erode the unit’s profit margins
this year, according to a report by analysts at Sharekhan Ltd.,
which predicted the Hindustan Unilever shares will drop. Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ), the Deerfield, Illinois-based
maker of everything from Oreos to Trident gum, declined to
comment, as did Kellogg Co. (K), the Battle Creek, Michigan-based
cereal maker that uses palm oil to cook Pop-Tarts. A spokesman
for Mars Inc., the Mclean, Virginia-based maker of candies
including M&Ms, Snickers and Twix, didn’t return e-mails and
telephone calls yesterday seeking comment.
The use of palm oil has drawn criticism from environmental
and consumer groups, who say farmers are destroying peatlands
and rain forests in Southeast Asia to expand plantations.
Nestle, Unilever, Kellogg, Mondelez and Mars are among the
companies that have said they will buy only palm certified by
the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil. About 16 percent of
world production is certified by the RSPO, its website says.
Damage Done
The drought in January and February was already the worst
in parts of Sumatra and Peninsular Malaysia for that period
since 1997, according to Donald Keeney, a meteorologist at MDA
Weather Services in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Average rainfall for
those months ranges from 250 millimeters in northwestern
Malaysia to more than 800 millimeters in northern Kalimantan and
parts of East Malaysia, Keeney said by e-mail on April 24.
“The damage is already done,” said Ben Santoso, an
analyst in Singapore with DBS Vickers Securities Pte. who has
tracked the industry for 17 years. “Even though the rainfall
has returned to normal, it’s probably a little bit too late.
Output during the peak harvesting season will not be as high as
previous years because of the drought that we saw in January and
February and that’s before El Nino.”
Limited Gains
In Indonesia, an expected increase in palm production may
be limited during the first half of 2014 because of dry weather,
according to Martua Sitorus, executive deputy chairman at
Singapore-based Wilmar International Ltd. (WIL), the world’s largest
palm-oil processor, in February.
The lack of rain will hurt yields in the fourth quarter
this year, in late 2015 and in early 2016, Oil World, a Hamburg-based industry researcher, said in an April 17 report.
Even without El Nino, output will grow more slowly this
year, RHB’s Tai said.
“You can have a mild El Nino, by historical standards, you
still can have a severe drought,” Tai said. The year “2006 was
supposedly a mild El Nino, but still some oil palm regions
didn’t see a drop of rain for five to six months, so it can be
that bad,” he said.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Ranjeetha Pakiam in Kuala Lumpur at
rpakiam@bloomberg.net
Moins
de deux semaines après une opération de Greenpeace à son encontre, au
siège du Brussels Innovation Center, à Grimbergen, contre l’utilisation
de l’huile de palme dans ses produits, P&G a pris de nouveaux
engagements pour cette matière première.
Si 100% de l’huile de palme achetée par P&G est d’ores et déjà
certifiée RSPO, c’est-à-dire correspondant aux critères de la Table Ronde pour une Huile de Palme Durable,
l’entreprise américaine a pris de nouveaux engagements, notamment en
termes de traçabilité, afin de d’assurer la non-déforestation des pays
producteurs. Dans ces régions du monde, en Malaisie par exemple, 40% de
la production d’huile de palme est réalisée par des petites plantations,
inférieures à 50 hectares. Une traçabilité parfaite
L’huile issue de ces productions voyage alors vers des raffineries, des
grossistes, voire plusieurs, avant d’être revendue aux industriels.
Ainsi, la traçabilité – parfois réalisée à la craie ! – est difficile à
mettre en place. C’est clairement l’aspect le plus complexe de toute la
chaîne d’approvisionnement…
D’ici la fin de 2015, Procter veut établir une traçabilité parfaite de l’huile qu’il utilise.
Afin de savoir exactement de quelle plantation elle provient, et
s’assurer que celle-ci ne réalise pas de déforestation massive. Ainsi,
les fournisseurs devront transmettre un plan à l’industriel d’ici le 31
décembre 2015, qui démontre que leur huile ne sera plus issue de
plantations dévastatrices en 2020. Enfin, pour l’huile de palmiste – le
noyau du fruit du palmier – P&G travaillera avec les producteurs
pour améliorer leurs pratiques.
En sus de cela, l’américain s’engage à travailler avec les fournisseurs, les industriels et les ONG pour « promouvoir les normes et pratiques cohérentes » liée à la production de l’huile de palme. Chose que l’entreprise faisait déjà plus ou moins en ayant intégré la RSPO. QUESTION DE DATE Si Greenpeace a salué les engagements de Procter estimant qu’ils "vont plus loin que les critères définis par la table Ronde sur l'Huile de Palme Durable (RSPO)", l’association émet toutefois des réserves quant à l’échéance de la mise en place de cette norme.
Procter fait suite à l’annonce de plusieurs actions de gros industriels, notamment sur le DPH, et non pas l’agroalimentaire, concernant l’huile de palme. (L’Oréal, Henkel, Unilever…)
Pour en savoir plus, retrouvez le reportage effectué par LSA en Malaisie, sur la production de l’huile de palme.
KIDAPAWAN
CITY – Malaysian consul general Abdullah Zawawi Tahir said many
Malaysian businessmen are planning to invest in the oil palm production
in the city and in other parts of North Cotabato.
Tahir, who arrived here on Friday, said one of the issues he
discussed with Kidapawan City Mayor Joseph Evangelista was on how they
could help each other in terms of agricultural development.
Evangelista said the city government invited the Malaysian consul
general to explore opportunities for investments from Malaysia,
especially in agriculture and tourism.
“A meeting is scheduled anytime this year with prospective investors,” the mayor said.
On September, Evangelista said the city government will join an
agriculture and trade exposition in Sabah, Malaysia to showcase products
from Kidapawan.
Tahir said he discussed with the mayor on what Kidapawan can offer to
Malaysian investors and what opportunities are available here.
He explained to the mayor that palm oil plantation is one of the
major high-value crops produced by Malaysia that helped reduced the
country’s poverty incidence.
This, he stressed, can also be done in the Philippines, particularly in Mindanao.
In fact, he said, a Malaysian company has already put up a
30,000-hectare palm oil plantation in Agusan del Sur in Caraga Region
where 120,000 farmers from the communities benefited from the program.
He assured the mayor he would encourage Malaysian companies to invest in the city to improve its local economy.
The Malaysian investors, he said, do not have to worry about the
climate as he said, “The climate here is no different from where I came
from, Malaysia. We both have hot and very hot season. We have so many
similarities.”
Two weeks ago, he said, a group of Malaysian businessmen came to Mindanao to discuss plans of investing in palm oil.
Among the areas they visited were the ARMM, Davao Oriental, and Compostela Valley.
Author:Koon Yew Yin | Publish date: Mon, 28 Apr 22:13 Koon yew Yin Introduction
First I must tell you that I am not a professional Chartist and I only
use the chart to help me make decision to buy, hold or sell.
The two methods commonly used to analyze securities and make investment
decisions are fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamental
analysis involves analyzing the characteristics of a company in order to
estimate its value. Technical analysis takes a completely different
approach; it doesn't care one bit about the "value" of a company.
Chartists are only interested in the price movements in the market.
Despite all the fancy and exotic tools it employs, technical analysis
really just studies supply and demand in a market in an attempt to
determine what direction, or trend, will continue in the future. In
other words, technical analysis attempts to understand the emotions in
the market by studying the market itself, as opposed to its components.
If you understand the benefits and limitations of technical analysis, it
can give you a new set of tools or skills that will enable you to be a
better trader or investor.
You can use technical analysis to:
1. Identify profitable stock patterns
2. Minimize your risk
3. Maximize your return in up and down markets
You’ll learn how to make big money on stocks using a technical analysis
toolkit that has been wielded successfully for hundreds of years.
That’s no exaggeration.
That makes these patterns some of the most time-tested strategies in
finance. You can feel secure that you are trusting your investments to a
highly refined system – not a new craze or an analyst’s hunch.
There are hundreds of patterns in stock charts that traders can look
for, but I will only tell what is most trusted and reliable. The Symmetrical Triangle: A Reliable Workhorse
You’ll recognize the symmetrical triangle pattern when you see a
stock’s price vacillating up and down and converging towards a single
point. Its back and forth oscillations will become smaller and smaller
until the stock reaches a critical price, breaks out of the pattern, and
moves drastically up or down.
The symmetrical triangle pattern is formed when investors are unsure of
a stock’s value. Once the pattern is broken, investors jump on the
bandwagon, shooting the stock price north or south.
Symmetrical Triangle Pattern
To form your symmetrical triangle pattern, draw two converging
trendlines that bound the high and low prices. Your trendlines should
form (you guessed it) a symmetrical triangle, lying on its side.
How to Profit from Symmetrical Triangles
Symmetrical triangles are very reliable. You can profit from upwards or
downwards breakouts. You’ll learn more about how to earn from
downtrends when we talk about maximizing profits.
If you see a symmetrical triangle forming, watch it closely. The sooner
you catch the breakout, the more money you stand to make. Watch For:
Sideways movement, a period of rest, before the breakout.
Price of the asset traveling between two converging trendlines.
Breakout ¾ of the way to the apex.
Set Your Target Price:
As with all patterns, knowing when to get out is as important as
knowing when to get in. Your target price is the safest time to sell,
even if it looks like the trend may be continuing.
For symmetrical triangles, sell your stock at a target price of:
Entry price plus the pattern’s height for an upward breakout.
Entry price minus the pattern’s height for a downward breakout. Note: As this article is getting too long, I will post another article on how I use chart later.
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报名《选好股票赚大钱》课程的学费是每人200令吉，请存入SCS Seminars &
Consultation Services 在PUBLIC BANK ACCOUNT 3085822025 然后fax 收据
到03-51927601或 whatsapp 到012-6597910。 课程地点：4 B Jalan SG 1/5, Taman
Industri Bolton, Batu Caves, 68100 Selangor (In front of Batu Caves
Giant). (黑风洞巨人百货市场前面） 课程纲要 经济及股市（Economy and stock market ）
1． 经济周期（Economic cycles）
2． 金融市场的冲击（Impact on Financial Markets）
3． 美国现行的货币政策（Current US Monetary policy）
4．股神巴菲特个案研究—他如何成为亿万富豪？（Case study: Warren Buffett’s Strategy – How he makes his billions） 财务报表（Financial Statements） 1.如何确定书面价值（ How to
ascertain Book Value ） 2.工作资本的重要性（The importance of Working Capital ） 3.
资金流动性的考验（ The Liquidity Test ） 4. 借贷（Borrowings） 5. 每股盈利（Earnings per
share） 一个好股模式的个案研究（Case study of a good stock model ） 1.
基本分析的应用-—讨论使用何种方式评估一个股项（Application of Fundamental Analysis – discuss
ratios to be used in stock evaluation ） 2.
使用技术分析分析一个股项：（1）什么是技术分析，（2）为何使用技术分析（3）估计上升目标价位（Application of Technical
Analysis: (a) what is technical analysis (b) why do we use technical
analysis 3. Estimation of Upside Targets） 潜力股的个案研究（Case study of a potential good stock ）1.
选出一个股项并且对这家公司的年报进行检讨（Pick a stock and conduct a review of the company’s
annual report ） 2. 进行各种的分析（基本分析及技术分析（Perform various analyses
(fundamental analysis and technical analysis) 3.确定其目标价位（ Ascertain its
target price ）
After I published the article about how the new Atria Mall would
enhance OSK Property's earnings, I was suggested to take a look at Asian
Pac Holdings Bhd ("Asian Pac") which has a similar concept in play.
Based on publicly available information and leads provided by fellow forum members, I came up with a big picture for Asian Pac.
The gist of the story is that Asian Pac is closed to completing its new
mall (Imago Mall) in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah. They target to open by end
2014. Based on preliminary analysis, Imago Mall could potentially
generate net income of > RM30 mil per annum.
Based on Asian Pac annualised net profit of RM28 mil (9 months reported earnings of RM20 mil), the new mall could potentially propel its earnings to RM61 mil. Based on existing market cap, this translates into PER of 3 times only.
(1) Background info on Asian Pac
Asian Pac is a small cap property developer. Based on 975m shares and
market price of RM0.20 per share, its market cap is RM195 mil.
Based on net assets of RM361 mil, cash of RM50 mil and loans of RM284 mil, net gearing is 0.65 times.
At first look, the gearing seemed to be a bit high. However, a
significant portion of it is mall related project debts and is in the
process of being pared down. Please refer to item 3 below for further
analysis.
For the 9 months ended December 2013, Asian Pac reported RM20 mil
earnings. If annualised, net profit would be RM28 mil. The current
market cap translates into PER of 7 times.
(2) Imago Mall
Imago Mall is part of Asian Pac's project in Kota Kinabalu (Time Square 2). Construction cost is approximately RM600 mil.
The mall has net lettable area of 800,000 sq ft, out of which 700,000
sq ft is mall space and about 100,000 sq ft external retail shops.
As at December 2013, Imago Mall has secured 65% tenancy and is in
negotiation to secure another 20% (altogether 85%). They target to
secure 100% tenancy by the time the mall open in Q4 2014.
In 2013,the major shareholder and senior management of Asian Pac has told the press the following :-
(1) Imago Mall once fully tenanted, could generate rental income of RM70 mil per annum; and
(2) The rental yield of Imago Mall is 5%
In addition, according to rating report, Imago Mall will generate net rental of RM50 mil per annum.
Based on the abovementioned information, I have constructed a financial
model for Imago Mall project to cross check the various figures. To my
pleasant surprise, the figures fit in seamlessly (please refer to table
below).
(Imago Mall P&L model)
(RM mil)
Comments
Rental income
70
as per management guidance *
less : epxenses
(20)
assumption of 70% margin ^
net rental income
50
as per rating report
less : interest expenses
(5)
assumption : RM80 mil x 6% #
PBT
45
less tax
(12)
25% tax
Net profit
33
divided by : project cost
600
as per management guidance
yield
5%
as per management guidance
* translates into yearly rental rate of RM88 per sq ft. Sunway Pyramid and IGB average yearly rental rate is RM150+ per sq ft ^ based on Sunway Pyramid and Mid Valley average profit margin # estimated project debt by 2015
Caution : Please note that the above financial model is
arrived at based on various estimates and assumptions by the author for
the purpose of illustrating a hypothetical scenario. It might not be
reflective of the actual earnings potential. Please do not base your
investment decision solely on this piece of information
(3) Gearing analysis
As at December 2013, Asian Pac has RM284 mil loans outstanding, out of
which RM150 mil are project debts related to Imago Mall ("Project
Debt").
RM70 mil of the Project Debt is due by June 2014, which is likely to be
repaid by internal cash (they have RM50 mil cash as at December 2013).
Another RM80 mil of the Project Debt is due by June 2015, which is
likely to be repaid through a combination of mall net rental income and /
or refinancing.
Upon full repayment of Project Debt, loans outstanding will drop to
RM134 mil (on pro forma basis), representing gearing of 0.37 times only,
which is considered low as it is backed by recurrent income from the
mall.
(4) Land Bank and Development Projects
As the main objective of this article is to highlight the potential
impact of Imago Mall on Asian Pac's earnings, I would not go into full
details on Asian Pac's land banks and various development projects, so
as not to overwhelm everybody with too much details.
Nevertheless some of the relevant info is as follows :-
(a) as at December 2013, unbilled sale is RM508 million with projects
in KK, Johor and KL. The unbilled sale could potentially last the group
18 months. Another RM150 mil sale to be launched in Q1 2014.
(b) brief information on Asian Pac's land bank :
Location
Description
Area (acres)
Net book value (RM mil)
year acquired
KK, Sabah
land under development (KK Time Square 2)
15.5
418
1997
JB, Johor
land under development
11.7
69
2006
Seremban
vacant land
399.8
54
2006
Gombak, Selangor
vacant land
50.0
26.6
2002
KK, Sabah
car park
114k sq ft
20.1
2008
Sungai Buloh, Selangor
vacant land
6.5
18.0
2013
Mukim Batu, KL
vacant land
6.2
12.6
1988
Mukim Batu, KL
land under development
6
11.8
1988
Mukim Batu, KL
land under development
3
8.9
1988
KK, Sabah
car park
52k sq ft
6.8
2010
TOTAL
499
646
(5) Concluding Remarks
Asian Pac is on the verge of a major transformation. Completion of
Imago Mall by end 2014 will create significant value for the group.
Net profit could potentially double to RM61 mil, translate into low PER
of approxiately 3 times based on current market price.
Gearing is relatively high at this juncture but is being gradually pared down.
Recurrent income from the mall provides strong visibility to future
cash flow, which augurs well for servicing debt obligations and funding
the group's growth and expansion going forward.
As usual, no harm keeping it in your watchlist.
Have a nice day.
I have written about GOB not too long ago.
When I wrote it, the share price was half heartedly 77 to 78 sen. But these few days I can see proactive buying.
As such, I would like to alert those who are interested in property stocks to take a look, before price run.
Among all the property stocks I have written about, the biggest position I have is in GOB.
(1) I feel extremely comfortable with this stock as going forward,
their main projects will be Seberang Prai Selatan, which is relatively
immuned from property sector slow down
(2) of course there are other stocks for exposure to Penang mainland. But none is as undiscovered as GOB
(3) They are in the process of doing a rights issue. Based on my
experience, company which do cash call would usually make sure their
profit is good in next few quarters so as not to scare away investors
(4) the rights shares + free warrants will help to average down the entry cost, in the event of a downturn
(5) the stock has not been actively traded. Nor had it been going up a
lot. That means there are no early birds out there waiting to dump at
you
(6) Gearing will drop to below 10% post rights. Strong balance sheet
allows property company to expedite launches and construction, or land
banking.
(7) One of the points I forgot to mention in my previous article is the
credibility of owner Desmond Lim. If you are familiar with Pavillion's
success story, you should know what I am talking about
My average cost is 79 sen. So it is not late to buy now.
KUALA LUMPUR: Telekom Malaysia Bhd (TM) has entered into an agreement with Green Packet Bhd (GP) and SK Telecom Co Ltd
to collaborate on developing a next-generation LTE infrastructure to
offer customers a full-suite of converged communications services.
As part of the deal, TM is investing RM350mil into Packet One Networks (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd
(P1) via the subscription of new shares that will see TM emerging as a
57% shareholder in P1. In addition, TM will invest up to RM210mil into
Green Packet via newly issued redeemable exchangeable bonds, which may
be exchanged into Green Packet’s stake in P1 in the future.
Green Packet and SK Telecom would remain key strategic shareholders of P1 upon the completion.
TM expects the investment agreement to be completed within the next few months.
The agreement would set out a partnership framework for the three
parties to share in the ownership and collaborate in the future growth
of P1, Malaysia’s leading WiMAX provider.
“The parties will seek to leverage on LTE technology to deliver
high-quality and reliable data services across all segments of the
community.
“P1 will capitalise on its spectrum assets, existing wireless
platform and network footprint of close to 2,000 sites, and experienced
management and organisation to expedite its entry into the LTE space,”
it said.
TM group CEO Tan Sri Zamzamzairani Mohd Isa said the agreement was in line with TM’s vision of being an “Information Exchange” and Malaysia’s Broadband Champion.
“We are further expanding our capabilities into the adjacent wireless
broadband space, as a natural evolution of our suite of internet and
data services, in order to better serve our customers’ needs.
“The partnership provides an LTE-ready platform for us to more
efficiently roll out wireless broadband products and accelerate
time-to-market for our customers,” he said.
The framework would see each party contribute its unique strengths
into P1 in order to offer customers high-quality wireless data services
with an overall better customer experience.
TM, as the leading fixed-line and broadband provider in Malaysia,
would anchor the growth and development of P1’s business. SK Telecom
would contribute valuable technical and strategic know-how.
鸡蛋中含有细菌，要选择熟透的鸡蛋而不是没有完全熟的煎蛋。
研究发现，有1/4的鸡肉碎含有李斯杆菌、弯曲杆菌、梭菌或是三者都有。
因为一般都是生吃哈密瓜，所以细菌会直接进入你的肠内。
研究发现，葱里含有寄生物隐孢子虫、至贺菌和沙门氏菌。
研究发现，冷盘很容易引起李氏杆菌，因为李氏杆菌更容易在寒冷的环境中滋生。
根据报告，在桃子到达消费者的时候，其表面已经覆盖了9层的农药。
研究发现，有11%的食物中毒都是由事先包好的莴笋引起。
又称生蚝，含有诺罗病毒(存在于海洋中的病原体)、弯曲杆菌和弧菌，从而导致腹泻。
汉堡中的肉含有53%的产气荚膜梭菌、30%的葡萄状球菌和12%的李氏杆菌。
经过对484只肉鸡的研究后发现，有42%的肉鸡被弯曲杆菌感染，12%的肉鸡则被沙门氏菌感染。
