2016年6月19日星期日

TSH 陳順風資源 (9059)

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 2, 2012


Company background

- 陳順風是于1980年代开始油棕种植活动,当时是在沙巴发展。 随后在2003年将业务拓展至印尼,如今印尼种植园地已占总种植面积的84%。
http://nanyang.com/node/447484?tid=687 (Nov.2012)

- 陈顺风资源（TSH，9059，主板种植股）原本只是一家专注在油棕加工下游业务的企业，2003年正式将业务重心转为上游油棕种植公司。



- Production of Wakuba ramets is an important milestone for TSH as we achieve better yields and returns from our plantations that will accelerate growth objectives.

- TSH was awarded a 100-year concession to carry out forest rehabilitation, environmental conservation and industrial tree planting on 123,000ha of forest land in Ulu Tungud, Sabah. We have also started to diversify and plant rubber as we believe that the addition of rubber is a good combination and spread of our plantation activities. TSH will continue to plant rubber by 1000-1500(ha) in the next few years, eventually building up to 10,000ha of planted rubber in order to capture the exciting potential of the rubber sector as well as increase our plantation footprint.

- TSH is a firm believer that people are an important and integral component in sustaining our business in the long term.  As a result, our Plantation Training Centre was established in 2005 in Central Kalimantan complete with facilities. The centre has successfully churned out a large number of students, all of whom have started out on their rewarding careers on our plantations. The pool of talents form a strong platform that enable TSH to implement its expansion plan.





http://www.tsh.com.my/

Management

- TSH plantation training centre in Kalimantan Tengah, started in 2008, has trained over 200 cadets and field assistants - who are graduates and diploma holders.
- Group MD Tan believes in empowering the managers to run the plantations, which are divided into blocks and managed as separate entities. Each cadet as a management unit, is allocated to a number of blocks and is empowered with resources such as vehicles, manpower to carry out their work assignments.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/188385-tshs-strategy-to-manage-plantation.html (June.2011)

Business

- Palm and bio-integration division is the key revenue driver of TSH(92.3%), wood & forestry(4.3%) and others(3.4%).

  • Plantation
- The company has one of the youngest tree age profiles among listed plantation companies, estimate at just over 6-years on average. 
- Its land bank totals just under 100,000 ha. Of the 32,500 ha or so of planted land, about 41% is still immature and 35% are between 3-5 years old. Only 2% f trees are over 20-years.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/226117-tsh-looks-to-a-better-2013.html (Nov.2012)

- Our plantations including associated companies are strategically located with approximately 40,000ha in planted areas across Sabah as well as parts of Kalimantan and Sumatra, Indonesia. Our unplanted land bank of 68,000ha will keep us busy for many years to come and we are always on the lookout for more strategic acquisitions as part of our expansion plans.  
http://www.tsh.com.my

- TSH has a large proportion of young trees in Indonesia. About 56% of the trees in Indonesia are 3-years old and less, while another 30% are between 4-6 years old. A small 5% of the oil palm trees in Indonesia are between 7-15 years, while the balance 9% of the tress are aged more than 16 years.


- Indonesia is estimated to account for 65% to 70% of group FFB output in FY2012.
- It is estimated that the milling division accounts for 75% of plantation revenue currently. ???

[Am Research 21.June.2012]

- Overall, TSH has a young oil palm tree age profile. Of the planted acreage, some 46% is immature, 28% between 4-6 years old. 14% are in the prime production age of 7-15 years old. Hardly any of its trees are older than 21.




  • Miling and refinery
- TSH have 3 mills in Sabah and 3 mills in Indonesia located in West Sumatra, Central Kalimantan and East Kalimantan with a combined processing in capacity of approximately 2.0mil tonnes of FFB per annum.

http://www.tsh.com.my

- Sabah based palm oil mills are located along Tawau - Lahad Datu - Sandakan highway or Sabah Oil Palm Belt processing 1 million per annum.
- 4th palm oil mill is located in Padang, West Sumatra, Indonesia.
- 5th palm mill is located in Palangkaraya (operation since May 2010), this mill is to cater for FFB crop from TSH plantation in Kalimantan Tengah
- 6th, 60 tonne palm oil mill (in progress) in East Kalimantan (expected completion by mid 2012) to support the milling requirement of FFB production for expansion 


- Moving down mid-stream, TSH has a 50-50 joint venture refinery with Wilmar International Ltd in Sabah with a capacity of up to 800,000mt per annum. Strategically located at Kunak Jaya, Sabah the refinery and kernel crushing plant have through put capacities of 2,600 tonnes per day and 600 tonnes respectively.  


- TSH  has  also  diversified  downstream  into CPO  refinery  and  PK  crushing  plant  in Sabah through  TSH-Wilmar  Sdn  Bhd,  a  50:50  joint-venture  with Wilmar  International  Ltd.  (Wilmar). The refinery has a design capacity of 0.75 million MT per annum and is envisaged to cater for the capacity needs of the next 5 years. The refinery is currently running at around 60% utilisation rate. 
[MIDF 29.March.2010]



- TSH owns and operates 3 palm oil mills  in Sabah and 1 palm oil mill  in Sumatera, 
Indonesia with total annual FFB processing capacity of 1.5 million MT. Around 16% of the total capacity is utilized to process its own FFB while the balance is used to process FFB purchased from third party estates. TSH mills in Sabah currently  earn  processing  profits  of  between RM10-15  per  FFB  ton.  The mills  are  running  at  about  80%  average utilisation  rate. 
*** 399,604 tonnes self produced FFB according to announcement in Bursa
*** 760,000 tonnes external purchase FFB according to Edge 
*** Total 1,160,000 MT
- TSH  is also building another palm oil mill with an annual FFB processing capacity of 0.3 million MT. The  new mill  which  is  located  in  Kalimantan,  Indonesia  will  commence  operation  in  2Q10.  Due  to  the  prevailing scarcity of processing capacity, palm oil mills  in Kalimantan generally  reap profits of around RM50-60 per FFB  ton processed.
(Year-2011)


- TSH owns and operates two other mills in Indonesia primarily to process FFB from its own estates. A 6th mill (with capacity of 45 tonnes per hour) is slated to commission by 1H2012. More mills will be added in lockstep with their projected output growth. 
-  TSH owns and operates two other mills in Indonesia primarily to process FFB from its own estates. A 6th mill (with capacity of 45 tonnes per hour) is slated to commission by 1H2012. More mills will be added in lockstep with their projected output growth. 


- TSH have 3 mills in Sabah and 3 mills in Indonesia located in West Sumatra, Central Kalimantan and East Kalimantan with a combined processing in capacity of approximately 2.0 mil tonnes of FFB per annum.
(Year-2012)



http://supermachinery.blogspot.com/2008/08/crude-palm-oil-milling-process.html


  • Synergistic integration (Bio-integration)
- Bio-integration solves palm oil mill wastes problem, namely empty fruit bunches (EFB) and palm oil mill effluent (POME), apart from providing auxiliary income to the company.
[MIDF 29.March.2012]


  • Biomass & Biogas Power, Pulp & Paper
- 目前陈顺风资源旗下共有5个符合净化发展机制（Clean Development Mechanism，简称CDM）的计划，包括空果串生物发电、沼气发电及空果串造纸。其中有4个已经向联合国气候变化框架公约（UNFCCC）注册，获得生产碳信用额（Carbon Credit），另一项则在申请当中。根据该公司提供资料，4个已注册的CDM计划，每年可产生25万吨的碳信用额。陈逸槟说：“以目前约12欧元的碳信用额价格计算，25万吨的碳信用额价值300万欧元（1302万令吉）。”
http://www.nanyang.com.my/node/380590 (Sept.2011)

联合国的碳市场网站
http://cdm.unfccc.int/Projects/projsearch.html

-  TSH's revenue attributed to electricity supply amounted to RM12.4mil over past 2 years, representing1.1%-1.4% of total revenue. Based on the current RM0.2125 per kWh FiT rate, this suggests that TSH sells about 58GWh of renewable energy each year (1GWh = 1mil kWh)

[Calculation] - Increase in revenue
RM0.30 - RM0.2125 = RM0.0875
RM0.0875 x 58mil kWh = RM5.075mil



[OSK Research 2.May.2012]

Bio-mass (EFB)
- TSH’s wholly-owned 14MW biomass power plant in Kunak, Sabah. It is the first biomass power plant in Malaysia to be connected to the grid, since 2005. The power plant generates electricity and  industrial steam  from EFB. 
- It has a renewable energy purchase agreement  (REPA) with Sabah Electricity Sdn  Bhd  to  supply  up  to  10MW  of  electricity  at  21.25  sen  kWh  for  21  years.
- TSH’s 9.8MW  biomass  power  plant  through  a  50:50  joint-venture  with Wilmar.  It  supplies  electricity  and industrial steam to TSH-Wilmar refinery since 2007. 
[MIDF 29.March.2012]

- TSH announced on April 30 that it had entered into a renewable energy PPA with Sabah Electricity Bhd. Under the term of the PPA, TSH will supply grid from its biomass plant for a period of nine-years at a rate of 30 sen per kWh. This supersedes a previous agreement signed in Oct-2002 where the tariff was 21.24 sen per kWh (41% increase).
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/212968-renewable-energy-interest-picks-up.html (May.2012)


Bio-gas (POME)
- POME  emits  methane  gas,  a  greenhouse  gas  which  is  21  times  more  harmful  to  the environment  than  carbon  dioxide. The methane  gas  however  can  be  treated  to  generate  industrial steam  and  eventually  electricity. 
- In  2009,  TSH  biogas  project  was  commissioned  with  an  output capacity of 2.5MW of electricity  from  its  industrial steam. The biogas project was acknowledged by United  Nations  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change  as  a  Clean  Development  Mechanism project. Carbon credits derived from the project are recognized as Certified Emission Reductions. 
[MIDF 29.March.2012]

Pulp & paper
-The palm pulp and paper are produced through the extraction and conversion of fibre 
from EFB. 
- TSH has  collaborated with Forest Research  Institute of Malaysia  (FRIM) and Malaysian 
Palm Oil Board (MPOB) to undertake this landmark project which received  a  commercialization grant from the government.
- A palm pulp and paper plant with capacity to produce 30,000 tons of paper per 
annum is presently in progress and is scheduled to commence commercial production by 2Q10. The end product is writing paper which is branded as ‘EkoPaper’. 
[MIDF 29.March.2012]
  • Cocoa
  • Wood
- Due to poor demand from Europe, losses in the wood division is expected to widen from a negative EBITDA of RM0.6mil in FY2011 to RM3mil in FY2012.
- TSH 67% owned Ekowood Bhd, which carries out wood activities, is currently trading 72% below its NBV of RM0.75/share.
[Am Research 21.June.2012]

  • Sustainable forestry
TSH通过持股65%的子公司意高国际,拥有沙巴森林管理单位约12万3000公顷的地段,而该 公司计划利用这块地栽种橡胶树。

Customers
[TSH 3rd quarter 2012 announcement]

- 兴业研究说，最大进口国印度进口全国的17％产量。中国则占全球消费16％。

Output (Efficiency)


http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/185346-maturing-trees-underpin-tshs-growth.html

- TSH Resources's FFB production is expected to grow at an average compounded annual growth rate of 43% over 2011 to 2014, which will see the output increase from 349,900 tonnes in 2011 to 763,818 tonnes in 2014. For its plantation in Kalimantan, TSH's FFB production is anticipated to expand to 154,758 tonnes this year and to 457,226 tonnes in 2014 in Kalimantan. According to Tan, more than 15,000ha in Kalimantan are expected to come into maturity between 2011 and 2013.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/188374-tshs-young-plantations-start-yielding-returns.html (June.2011)


- TSH Resources Bhd targets to have all its plantations in Indonesia planted with the higher yielding oil palm ramets or clones from next year(2012) which can produce oil extraction rate (OER) of 26% compared with normal seedings where the OER is 21.5%.
- TSH group managing director Datuk Tan says it took six years since the setting up of the tissue culture laboratory in Sabah to have its "Wakuba" ramet cultivated which will generate higher FFB yield and OER.
- Group MD Tan says the ramet can generate 4.0 tones of CPO a hectare from the third year and up to 10 tonnes in the sixth year as compared with the normal seeding where the yield is 3.0 tonnes to 6.0 tonnes over the same period.
- Group MD Tan says current production can accommodate 700,000 ramets per year. None have been planted to date, but target to plant them from next years (2012) onwards.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/188387-tsh-ventures-into-tissue-culture-to-raise-yields.html (June.2011)

- For FY2011, Datuk Kelvin Tan expected the Sabah estates to achieve average yield of above 30 tonnes FFB per hectare which was well above the industry standard.
- Despite young age profile of Indonesian oil palms of 4-5 years, TSH is now achieving a high OER of over 25% for FFB from own crops.
- Tan explained the ramet plantings can yield up to 17 tonnes FFB per hectare in its first year of harvesting.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business/191689-tsh-resources-posts-record-pre-tax-profit-of-rm5163m-in-2q.html (Aug.2011)

- Some 64% of TSH's 1HFY2011 FFB production came from Indonesia.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/191822-tsh-resources-in-a-2q-bounce-on-bumper-crop.html (Aug.2011)

- 陈逸槟也预期沙巴地区鲜果串产量，在2011财年可达平均每公顷超过30公吨的目标，尽管印尼油棕树龄只有4至5年，但可取得超过25%榨油率。”
http://www.nanyang.com.my/node/380590 (Sept.2011)

- Total FFB production was up 21.6% y-o-y in 1Q2011, despite an 8.8% drop in output from 4,750ha of mature estates in Sabah due to poor weather conditions. Growth jumped to 76.7% y-o-y in 2Q to 109,384 tonnes boosted by both a recovery in Sabah and continued robust harvest from Indonesia.
- For 1H2011, FFB production grew an average 48.6% y-o-y to 187,679  tonnes, of which 64% is derived from TSH's oil palm estates in Indonesia.
- Monthly output has fallen back in August after peaking in the previous few months due to seasonal factors. Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd expect overall growth for FY2011 at roughly 33% to about 372,000 tonnes.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=193769&Itemid=170 (Sept.2011)

- TSH also purchases FFB from external parties to be processed as its three oil palm mill in Sabah. Total external purchase is estimated at roughly 760,000 tonnes this year(2011). TSH does not intend to expand on this low-margin milling business, but its existing operations will continue to generate a steady, albeit relatively small, income stream in the future.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=193769&Itemid=170 (Sept.2011)

- TSH replaced buffalos with "mechanical buffalos" to speed up collection and transport of FFB in its Sabah estates and increased land harvested per worker from 1.2ha per day to 1.7 to 2ha per day. TSH plans to introduce mechanical buffalos in its Indonesia estates soon. In addition, TSH utilizes GPS to monitor estate operations and fine-tune management practices.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/195925-tsh-resources-shows-strong-sustainability.html (Nov.2011)

- Its Indonesian output now accounts for 64.8% of total production, higher than last year’s 58.1%. The remaining output comes from Sabah, where production rose a more modest but still solid 20.1% after two consecutive years of contraction. TSH’s total FFB production of 399,604 tonnes beat our expectations by 5.1%.
 [OSK Research 23.Feb.2012]
- Developed on virgin soil, the company’s Indonesian estates achieved above average FFB yields of 19 tonnes per hectare in 2011, a 21% increase year-on-year compared with normal yields of 16 tonnes per hectare for an average age profile of 5.4 years.
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/3/8/business/10875069&sec=business (Mar.2012)



[Am Research 21.June.2012]



- TSH 1Q earnings have historically made up less than 15% of its full year earnings. 
[OSK Research 22.May.2012]

- 3Q2012 FFB  production  from  TSH’s  Sabah  estates  recovered  17.2%  q-o-q but remains subpar compared with the stellar output in 2011 when production grew 20.1% y-o- y although 99.5% of its trees have reached peak production age. 
- In contrast, the   company’s   much   younger   trees   in   Indonesia   produced   203.0k   tonnes   of   FFBs   during   the past nine months (9M 2012), 5.1% higher than that seen over the same period last year. Expectations were  much  higher,  however,  given  its  Indonesian  trees’  young  age  profile   (just 13.7% are at their peak) and the 59.4% surge in production last year.
 [OSK 21 Nov 2012]


Cost

- 简单的说，发展1ha的土地，不包括购地成本，4年平均成本是RM15000。（IOI说他们的成本是9800，我不太信。）开发10000ha种植地，需要150m，和80mt/h的提炼厂。原本40mt/h提炼厂就够用了，可是集团的习惯是把产能提高一倍。
- 提炼厂费用表面看来是70m，但如果有人向你兜售符合联合国的设施，upgrade这个，upgrade那个，费用是无法估计的，cepat就是栽在这个地方。我猜测cepat还在等联合国的批准信。
http://www.investalks.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=2816&extra=&page=4 (#73 #74 User:tcs)


- In terms of costs, TSH's CPO production costs per tonne ex-mill was at RM879 per tonnes in Sabah and RM1,350 in Indonesia last year. On average, the cost was at RM880 in Sabah and RM1,379 in Kalimantan over the three years from 2008 to 2010. The production costs were higher in Indonesia due to the younger oil palm trees.

- Fertiliser account for 30% to 40% of production costs.
- TSH practices central purchasing, which is done one year in advance.
- The main fertilizer components are quoted in US dollars and are a natural hedge to the CPO prices.


- Estimate operating cost of the Indonesia division at RM1,415/tonne in 1Q2012. In comparison, production cost of the operations in Malaysia was about RM1,161/tonne.

-TSH's operating cost per tone is above average as most of the oil palm trees in Indonesia are not in the prime stage yet, expect costs per tone to decline in the coming few financial years on the back of an increase in palm oil production.

- Cost of new plantings in Indonesia would come up to about US$5,000/ha.

[Am Research 21.June.2012]


Plantation Capacity



Year-2010 (Subsidiaries)
Total planted landbank: 25,000ha (as at May.2010)  28,000ha, of of which Sabah contribute 4,400ha (as at Dec.2010)
Total mature landbank: 13,000ha (as at May.2010)
Total immature landbank: 12,000ha (as at May.2010)

Year-2010 (Group)
Total landbank: 87,000ha (as at May.2010) -- 99,400ha (as at End.2010)
Total planted landbank: 43,000ha (as at May.2010)
Total mature landbank: 13,000ha (as at May.2010)
Total immature landbank: 30,000ha (as at May.2010)

*** 83% landbank located at Indonesia
---------------------------------------------------

Year-2011 (Group)
Total landbank: About 100,000ha (as at Sept.2011) -- 81,289ha alone in Kalimantan (as at June.2011)
Total unplanted: Indonesia - 83%, Sabah - 17% (as at Sept.2011)
Trees age: 54% or 24,850ha - immature; 19% or 5263ha - 4~6years; 27% - over 7 years

Year-2011 (Subsidiaries)
Total landbank: 90,500ha (as at Nov.2011)
Total unplanted: 66,700ha (as at Nov.2011)
Total planted landbank: 23,800ha (as at Nov.2011) 

Year-2012 (Subsidiaries)
Total landbank: 94,003ha (as at April.2012) -- 99,341ha (as at Sept.2012)
Total planted: 31,500ha (as at Sept.2012)
Total immature: 45.7% or 43,000ha highest in Malaysia, Indonesia 87.7% immature (as at April.2012)
- TSH Resources Bhd (subsidiaries + associates + JV) plans to plant between 8,000ha and 9,000ha of land with oil palm on a JV basis. [Only subsidiaries 5,000ha/annum target]
- Palm oil contributes 80% of our revenue.
- The group has (subsidiaries + associates + JV) has over 43,000ha of land planted with oil palm, of which 13,000ha are mature oil palm trees. [Only subsidiaries 25,000ha planted - 12,000ha immature, 13,000 between 4-20 years old]
- TSH group MD Tan Aik Sim said the group was seeking land in Indonesia, especially in the eastern and central parts of Kalimantan given the greater availability of large tracts of land coupled with cheaper land prices.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=166470&Itemid=79 (May.2010)

- 公司非執行主席拿督陳逸檳在股東大會後表示，現階段共有8萬7000公頃土地供種植油棕，遍佈沙巴和印尼加里曼丹，惟僅有50%為已種植土地，未植地庫足夠未來5年的增植計劃使用。
- 公司近幾年大量栽種油棕苗；在已植土地中，成年油棕樹比例只佔約30%，未來幾年產量料逐年增加。
- 旗下油棕生產成本處在高競爭水平，略低於每公噸1200令吉的領域生產成本
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/34338 (May.2010)

- 目前種植業務是最大盈利貢獻，佔總營收的82至83%，盈利貢獻更高達94至95%，其餘為木材和可可。
- 陳順風資源的高達83%種植地位於印尼，是業務主力，主要是39%的地段仍處於高產期，而61%仍未成熟。
- 未種植地段高達7萬4千公頃此外，基於公司未種植的地段高達7萬4千公頃，仍具龐大的拓展空間。若每年平均新種植達4千公頃、可種植的地段高達70%
- 陳順風資源與大馬棕油局（MPOB）攜手生產的組織培育複製新品種Wakuba無性系分株的計劃開跑，可能進一步推高鮮果串回酬，因為在這種“克隆”品種下，最高生產可達每公頃38公噸，榨油率達25%，現有品種為每公頃28至30公噸，榨油率20%。
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/38630 (Sept.2010)

- 截至2010年12月31日止，陳順風拥有接近2万8000公顷的总种植地库，其中超过70％的树龄低过7年。
- 自2006年开始的积极栽种策略，这使得陳順風已种植面积，由2005年的8700公顷增至2010年的2万8千公顷。过去5年，所有种植拓展计划出现在印尼，特别是加里曼丹(East Kalimantan)一带，使该公司在印尼的已种植面积由4300公顷增至2万4000公顷，而沙巴的种植面积则企稳在4400公顷。
http://nanyang.com/node/447484?tid=687 (Dec.2010)


- TSH has some 99,400ha in its landbank, almost all of which is in Indonesia. With just about 28% if this landbank planted as at end-2010.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/185346-maturing-trees-underpin-tshs-growth.html (April.2011)

- The bulk of the RM100mil capex will be for planting in Kalimantan, about 58,000ha of unplanted land. As at Dec 31,2010 TSH had 23,507ha of planted land in Indonesia and 57,782ha unplanted.
http://www.tsh.com.my/html/tsh/GUI/images/press/2011/theedge2011.jpg (May.2011)

- TSH resources Bhd's plantation area in Kalimantan, covering 81,289ha or 812.89 sq km, is even larger than Singapore island's 710.2 sq km.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/188385-tshs-strategy-to-manage-plantation.html (June.2011)

- 種植地主要位于印尼，佔總種植地的84%，包括加里曼丹東部及中部、蘇門答臘西部，剩余在沙巴。未種植的種植地有5萬7802公頃，即使該公司不再增持種植地，以每年種植4000至6000公頃地段速度進行，也可持續至2020年至2025年。
- 印尼棕油樹樹齡平均較年輕，82%都介于1至5年；沙巴的油棕樹樹齡則較老，99%都介于10年以上。
- 該公司亦有2121公頃未成熟的橡膠種植地。另有8000公頃未種植的橡膠地。
- 自1997年起，于沙巴獲授權管理12萬3000公頃森林局地段長達100年，當中有8000公頃地段可供種植橡膠。
- 並與豐益（Wilmar）以對半比例聯營下游業務，包括提煉原棕油（CPO）及棕櫚仁榨取業務，于沙巴分別擁有日產能2600及600公噸的原棕油提煉廠及棕櫚仁榨取工廠。

- Existing planted landbank of some 28,591ha as at June 2011. Plantable reserves totaling more than 60,000ha located primarily in Kalimantan, Indonesia. The company is currently in the midst of finalizing the acquisition of another 11,500ha of plantation land and intends to keep expanding its land reserve going forward.
- New planting up slowed in 1H2011 to just about 634ha, but has picked up pace in the last two months.

- 陈顺风资源目前握有约10万公顷种植地，其中仍有超过6万公顷未种植的土地，主要遍布在印尼（83%）及沙巴（17%）。
- 据了解，。印尼的种植土地并不贵，只是申请栽种权较难，相关程序也漫长
- 陈逸槟坦言，印尼的社会问题及监管制度改变，的确使不少种植公司在购地决定上犹疑不决。但他透露：“值得庆幸的是，我们在印尼找到一个好伙伴，使我们的购地策略得以顺利执行。”
陈逸槟所言的印尼好伙伴，正是该国著名煤炭企业PT Adaro Energy。根据路透社数据，市值约85亿美元（约258亿令吉）的Adaro Energy，是印尼市值最大煤炭企业。
http://www.nanyang.com.my/node/380590 (Sept.2011)

- The termination of the share sale agreement between TSH and Portvest in relation to the acquisition of Mildura Investment on Oct 19, 2011 removed some 12,000ha from TSH's total landbank. However, the acquisition of two new Indonesian subsidiaries added another 21,300 to its landbank, bringing the company's total planted and unplanted areas to 23,800ha and 66,700ha respectively.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/196420-osk-research-maintains-buy-on-tsh-resources-ups-fv-to-rm403.html (Nov.2011)

- At present, about 54% or 25,850ha of its oil palm estates are immature or below four years old, while 19% or 5,263ha have attained maturity (4-6 years) but had yet to enter into prime production phase. Only 27% of its trees are over 7 years old. Of its immature crop, 58% is situated in Indonesia and the remainder held under an associate company in Sabah. [including associates]
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/196582-tsh-to-meet-expectations-targets-higher-ffb-output.html (Nov.2011)

- The preliminary results from its trial planting of Wakuba clones are encouraging, producing 13.9 tonnes per hectare year-to-date in its third year.
- TSH obtained approvals to plant Wakuba in Indonesia recently and will begin large-scale planting in 2012.

- The termination of the share sale agreement between TSH and Portvest in relation to the acquisition of Mildura Investment on 19 Oct removed some 12.0k ha from TSH’s total landbank. However, the acquisition of two new Indonesian subsidiaries added another 21.3k to its landbank, bringing the company’s total planted and unplanted areas to 23.8k ha and 66.7k ha respectively.
[OSK Research 18.Nov.2011]
- 大马拥有超过485万公顷的油棕种植地，其中30%位于沙巴。
http://www.nanyang.com/node/404991 (2011)

- The "Killer App" - What could very well entice Wilmar to gobble up TSH eventually is the discovery of a new palm oil clone by its research lab. A new oil palm clone dubbed Wakuba oil palm ramet brand was launched with a promise of doubling the current oil yield. Named after TSH Biotech Sdn Bhd's five-year-old tissue-culture laboratory in Wakuba Gading, Tawau, Sabah, the new clone promises an oil yield of up to 10 tonnes per ha compared with the average current yield of about 4.5 tonnes per ha in the country.  TSH Resources' chairman Datuk Kelvin Tan said the company had invested RM25mil in the laboratory, which is expected to produce 1.5 million ramets by 2015 compared with 500,000 this year.
http://www.investalks.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=2816&page=5 (#95)


- 陳順風資源将继续扩大印尼的9万4千零3公顷地库（其中仅有27.8％已栽种油棕），以在加里曼丹优质地库变得昂贵前先下手为强。
- 45.7％未成熟果树面积是大马种植领域最高。
- 印尼未成熟果树比重达到87.7％，有望成为陳順風資源主要成长引擎。
- 陳順風資源加里曼丹炼油厂去年取得24.6％榨油率，较普通的大马炼油厂的20％－22％为高，管理层称主要原因为加里曼丹现处于第一代的商业种植阶段，加上当地土地土壤尚未受到风化和相对肥沃。
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/59177 (April.2012)

- 公司拥有面积7万公顷（沙巴＋印尼）的未种植地库，未来将用作发展新种植计划。
- 陳順風資源在沙巴设有一间生物科技中心，专门生产高产组织培育的华古巴(Wakuba)油棕树苗，这些华古巴油棕树苗可推动油棕产量。

- Currently, TSH has about 99,341ha in terms of total landbank, of which an estimated 31,500ha have been planted to date. 
- The company is also in the process of commissioning its 6th palm oil mill, to cater for rising FFB output from its Indonesian estates. The mill is targeted for completion later this year. At present, TSH has five miles with processing capacity totaling some 290 tones per hour.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/220705-still-upbeat-on-tsh-despite-earnings-shortfall.html (Sept.2012)

- Kalimantan's economic growth is fueled by coal mining and palm oil. Although Sumatera is still the largest producer of palm oil in Indonesia(almost 80%), Kalimantan's contribution is rising.
Palangkaraya, is the provincial capital of Central Kalimantan. Flight from Jakarta to Palangkaraya took about 1.5 hours.

- Malaysia-listed plantation companies have plantation landbank all over Kalimantan. IJM Plantations has about 51,063ha of land in East Kalimantan, IOI 52,704ha of plantation landbank is all located in West Kalimantan, while Genting Plantations has roughly 55,254ha of land in West Kalimantan and 45,000ha in Central Kalimantan. Apart from these, GenP has also entered into a 60:40 JV to develop 74,000ha of land in Central Kalimantan.

-Population: West Kalimantan (>4.4mil), South & East Kalimantan (>3.6mil), Central Kalimantan (>2.2mil)

[Am Research 21.June.2012]

Growth/Strategy

- TSH has also targeted new plantings of 4,000-5,000(ha) per year, allowing sustainable growth to the Group.

- Ultimately, TSH hopes to realize its objective of becoming a significant regional plantation player via its quest to expand its land banks and planted areas.

http://www.tsh.com.my

- TSH will allocates RM100mil as annual plantation capital expenditure, of which about 80% to 90% would be for the Kalimantan plantations.
- TSH aims to plant between 4,000ha and 5,000ha annually, mainly in Indonesia.
- MD Tan expects an OER of about 24% from the FFB from its existing and new plantations in Kalimantan.
- TSH targets from 2012 to have all its plantations in Indonesia planted with the higher yielding oil palm ramets or clones that can achieve 26% OER compared with 21.5% OER from the normal seedings.
- Tan said its took 6-years since the setting up of the tissue culture technology laboratory in Sabah to cultivate its "Wakuba" ramet which will generate higher FFB yield and OER. The oil palm ortets, which are used for the production of clones including the Wakuba, are sourced from MPOB. The ortets will then undergo at least 5 cycles of oil extraction test.
- Tan said the current ramet can generate 4 tonnes of CPO a hectare annually from the 3rd year and up to 10th tonnes in the 6th year compared with the normal seedling where the yield is 3 tonnes to 6 tonnes over the same period.
- TSH current production can accommodate 700,000 ramets per year.
- None TSH's Indonesian plantations has been planted with the Wakuba ramet to date, but target to plant them from 2012 onwards.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/188374-tshs-young-plantations-start-yielding-returns.html  (June.2011)

- TSH plans to have 2 more palm oil mills, increasing the number to 7. The 6th is expected to be ready in the first quarter of 2012 and one associate mill by end-2012. The additional mills will raise the total capacity from 280 tonnes of FFB per hour now to 400 tonnes.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/188374-tshs-young-plantations-start-yielding-returns.html (June.2011)

- In June 2011, 39% of its total planted areas were immature against 53% as at end-December 2010.
- As these mature progressively over the next five years, Hwang DBS expect FFB volume to grow at a three-year CAGR of 27%.
- To accommodate output from its 8,000ha maturing estates in East Kalimantan next year(2012), a new 60 tonne per hour mill will be commissioned there by 1HFY2012.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/192839-tsh-resources-is-ripe-for-the-picking.html (Sept.2011)

- 陈逸槟补充，购地举动不会因现有足以维持未来10年种植（以陈顺风资源放眼每年4000至5000公顷的种植速度计算）的地库而停下来。“加上，公司的盈利一直在增长，可拨至购地的资本支出也会越来越多。而在地点上，公司还是以印尼为首选。”
- 陈逸槟表示，公司拥有雄厚的资金，并规划每年投资1亿令吉发展种植业务，及积极物色合适土地扩大种植版图。
http://www.nanyang.com.my/node/380590  (Sept.2011)


- New plantings in Indonesia were slow due to uncertainty over the deforestation moratorium (森林砍伐禁令) in 1HFY2011 (only 630ha planted as at June2011), but Hwang DBS expect its expansion to pick up next year(2012) to 3,000ha.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/192839-tsh-resources-is-ripe-for-the-picking.html  (Sept.2011)

- 陈顺风在沙巴的华古巴无性繁殖实验室耗资4000万令吉，占地7万平方尺，员工与技术专才高达250位。该实验室放眼在今年生产50万株油棕树苗，并计划在2015年前逐步提高至150万株。
http://www.nanyang.com/node/404991 (Dec.2011)


- OSK指出，陳順風資源在2011年栽种2千584公顷油棕，低于2006年－2009年间的平均3千100－5千200公顷，主要是公司在近2年为维持净负债比在0.8倍水平以下，以维持其AA-信贷品级，从而将栽种脚步有所放缓。
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/59177 (April.2012)

- 陳順風資源计划每年种植6000－7000公顷的作物，其中4000－5000公顷将种植油棕，1000公顷种植橡胶。
http://www.nanyang.com.my/node/448271?tid=462 (May.2012)


- 计划每年种植面积5,000公顷
- TSH is actively looking to acquire more land.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/220705-still-upbeat-on-tsh-despite-earnings-shortfall.html (Sept.2012)

M&A

(1) TSH acquires Mildura (Cancelled)
  • TSH wishes to announce that the Company had on 26 May 2010 entered into a Share Sale Agreement to acquire 100 ordinary shares of USD1.00 each, representing the entire equity interest in Mildura Investment Pte. Ltd. ("Mildura") from Portvest Pte. Ltd. ("the Vendor") for a purchase consideration of USD4,950,132 (approximately RM15,828,047) ("Acquisition").
  • Mildura is a private limited company incorporated in the Republic of Singapore on 28 July 2008 with an issued and paid-up share capital of USD100 comprising 100 ordinary shares of USD1.00 each. Mildura is an investment holding company whose only investment is a 90% equity shareholding in PT Perkebunan Sentawar Membangun ("PTPSM"). 
  • PTPSM was incorporated in the Republic of Indonesia as a limited liability company established and existing under the Laws of the Republic of Indonesia. PTPSM had on 31 July 2006 obtained “Ijin Lokasi” for 15,000 ha of land located in Kabupaten Kutai Barat, Propinsi Kalimantan Timur (“the Land”) of which approximately 12,000 ha is estimated to be plantable and HGU obtainable. Thus 12,000 ha has been used as a basis for valuing the subject Land. PTPSM had obtained the necessary licence to develop the Land into oil palm plantation and to convert PTPSM into a company with Penanaman Modal Asing (“PMA”) status.
[Bursa 26.May.2010]


(2) TSH-Pontian United Plantations Berhad(PUPB- 笨珍種植)deal 20.2% associate company

[Calculation]
PUPB- 笨珍種植 
Total landbank: 13,200ha 
Net profit: RM84,440,000
Outstanding shares: 8,640,000
EPS = RM84,440,000 / 8,640,000 shares = RM9.8

Offered price: RM90/share
Offered PE = RM90 / RM9.80 = 9.2
Offered price/ha = RM84,440,000 / 13,200ha = RM6,397/ha
Estimated contribution to group (as at FY2011) = RM84,440,000 x 20.2% = RM17,056,880
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/65272


[OSK Research 18.July.2012]

Bull case

- With over 70% in young and immature hectarage, we can expect a rich harvest in the next several years. This will also translate to more resilient earnings withsteady Fresh Fruit Production (FFB) 
growth.
http://www.tsh.com.my 

- Improved economies of scale in coming years when trees mature, thus lower average production.
- Better revenue mix, the upstream plantation business is more profitable the the milling operations. At the moment, TSH resources roughly three-quarters of its FFB of processing from external parties.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/in-the-financial-daily/185346-maturing-trees-underpin-tshs-growth.html (April.2011)


- 2005年，陈顺风资源集团子公司陈顺风资源生物科技有限公司（TSH Biotech），在沙巴州斗湖华古巴加丁投资2500万令吉，设立培育实验室。经过6年的时间与大马棕油局（MPOB）共同研发油棕幼苗，终于培育出拥有更高的鲜果串（FFB）产量，及榨油率的名为华古巴（WAKUBA）油棕幼苗。陈逸槟对华古巴相当有信心，他解释：“因为它是细胞培植（tissue culture）复制的优越品种。每公顷产油量可达10吨，比我国平均每公顷4.5吨产油量超出1倍。”
- 他说，普通油棕幼苗首3年的每公顷产油量为3吨，来到第6年每公顷产油量提升至6吨左右。
“而华古巴油棕幼苗在相同时期内，每公顷产油量分别为4吨和10吨。”
- 陈顺风资源放眼从2012年开始，在印尼种植华古巴新油棕幼苗，此幼苗也拥有高达26%的榨油率（OER），相较于普通油棕幼苗的21.5%原棕油榨取率。
- 根据陈逸槟所言，华古巴也供出售，惟产量需先满足本身所用。目前陈顺风资源的油棕复制幼苗产量为每年70万棵，预料于2015年可生产150万棵幼苗。

- 目前，陈顺风资源有约54%的油棕树尚未进入成熟树龄，因此可以想象，两三年后，当这些油棕树开始产出鲜果串时，公司的收入将大幅增加。
http://www.nanyang.com.my/node/380590 (Sept.2011)

- 中国库存按年减少40％或只剩230万公吨，不足一个月的消费。
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/55843 (Jan.2012)


- 陳順風資源的Wakuba无性分株品种，最高生产可达每公顷38公顷，榨油率达26％，较现有品种高出30％和24％。 
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/59177 (April.2012)


- Global consumption of edible oil is expected to grow at a steady if not overly pace for the foreseeable future. Per capita consumption in China is estimated at roughly 25kg and India 15kg, while in the US consumption is estimated 55kg and 59kg in the EU.
- Demands for oilseeds from the oleo-chemical industry as well as for biofuel is expected to trend higher. Despite being a relatively new concept, biofuel is now estimated to account for roughly 11% of the world's total consumption of its oils and fats.
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=214245&Itemid=170 (May.2012)

- 印尼最贵重的不是土地，是栽种权，申请要等，TSH总是能通过一些新加坡公司拿到。
- 提早开发tissue culture，虽然这不是什么高科技，它需要的是大量员工。虽然不是全国第一，但它可以成为东马第一。
http://www.investalks.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=2816&extra=&page=4 (#78 User:tcs)

Bear case

- High net gearing about 0.8, 公司贷款到顶，再继续借贷会影响AA-信贷评级。假如要持续扩大地库，必须内部融资。扩展计划可能放缓。但从net profit或operating cash flow来看，公司要应付贷款利息绝对没有问题。我想最坏的情况下，公司大不了买地周转。种植公司的有形资产（地库）比起制造等等行业（库存可能过时过期了）的资产终究还是来得有价值的。

- 扩大地库的步伐远比栽种来得快。管理层可靠吗？也有可能是管理层趁印尼加里曼丹的地还便宜时大量收购。
- Bursa得到的CPO production等等资料都是沙巴的，缺少印尼的资料。难评估。
- Although expansion in Kalimantan provides huge potential, it also poses a challenge on how to manage the large tracts of land efficiently and ensure optimum output.

Results

[OSK Research 23.Feb.2012]



[OSK Research 22.May.2012]



[MIDF Research 23.August.2012]

Financial ratio

Efficiency

Leverage

Highly leverage due to aggressive expansion of plantation land bank in Indonesia

Free cash flow


Per share

Profitability

Liquidity

Coverage 


再谈TSH

TSH的生意模式很大程度上属自给自足式。从2011年报看，其中的RM1,134,203,000营业额很大部分是来自销售crude palm oil于联营公司TSH-Wilmar Sdn Bhd。

根据2011年报，89％是与棕油有关，剩下的由可可，电力销售，橡胶，木材，地板安装工程等业务组成。



根据2011年报，自家鲜果串产量399,6000mt加上external parties购买的760,000mt，FFB一共1,159,600mt。假如以25％的榨油率来计算，将获得289,900mt。

TSH目前在沙巴联营的refinery一年可应付800,000mt，所以要消化TSH接下来几年开始步入成熟期增加的产量是没有问题的。





以下的ratio告诉我们TSH不是一间不务正业的公司，公司的盈利主要是来自主业。

Year              : Other income / Total income
2011年(000)：43,678 / 343,697 = 13%
2010年(000)：36,869 /  239,539 = 15%
2009年(000)：48,035 / 222,311 = 22%
2008年(000)：23,318 / 240,269 = 10%

从2011年报来看，directors的薪酬是可以接受的。

Year              : Directors' remuneration / Profit net of tax

2011年(000)：6,068 / 129,529 = 4.7%
2010年(000)：4,883 /  90,812 = 5.4%

值得注意的是，有一些税务优惠在2011年和接下来的几年间将陆续终止。但是影响不大，因为RM4,586,000只是占盈利的很小一部分。




TSH为了扩充地库而大量举债，近几年来的debt/equity ratio都维持在0.8左右的高位。但看看2008－2011的Net operating cash flow和偿还的利息比，还是蛮安全的。

2011年(000)：26,346 / 153,313 = 17%
2010年(000)：25,065 / 120,485 = 21%
2009年(000)：22,265 / 134,690 = 17%
2008年(000)：16,590 / 15,230 = 109%







公司的大部分债务是有Bankers' acceptance,Terms loans,Term notes组成。其中56％属于短期债务（一年到期）。



我觉得比起其他行业的公司，种植公司的贷款是比较占有优势的，银行会比较放心因为公司的贷款抵押大部分都是较值钱的土地。所以只要公司的有足够的现金流应付贷款利息，就不会有太大的问题。而从TSH的Net operating cash flow和利息来看，是绰绰有余的。

从2010年TSH有意收购Mildura Investment Pte. Ltd. 到最后因为Mildura的子公司PTPSM的location permit, oil palm plantation business permit和leasehold certificate无法获得延长而告吹来看，TSH对收购应该是认真的，而不是借收购来挖空公司的钱。

http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/edms%5Cedmswebh.nsf/LsvAllByID/482576120041BDAA4825792E0036BFEE?OpenDocument
http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/edms/edmswebh.nsf/LsvAllByID/482576120041BDAA4825772F0034EB84?OpenDocument

下面的数据告诉我们TSH在营业额增加的同时，应收帐款并没有太大的变动，2008-2010年虽然在增长，但是在2011年又缓和了下来。但是有一点必须留意的就是公司的Allowance for third parties impairment占应收帐款的比例4年来不断在增长，有可能是公司的顾客素质出现问题。

Current receivables


2008200920102011
Revenue1,109,941 980,251  908,4271,134,203
Trade receivables53,70257,15357,61051,469
Receivables/Revenue (%)4.8%5.8%6.3%4.5%


2008200920102011
Trade receivables53,702  57,153  57,61051,469
Allowance for impairment 3rd parties2,487 3,0933,9685,174
Impairment/Trade receivables (%)4.6%5.4%6.9%10.1%

公司的credit term:

"Trade receivables are non-interest bearing and are generally on 30 to 90 days terms."
"Trade payables are non-interest bearing and the normal trade credit terms granted to the Group range from 30 days to 60 days"

值得留意的是2011年有提到"Included in trade payables of the Group is an amount RM15,000 owing to a company in which a director of a subsidiary has financial interest"，不过没有提到详细资料。可以放心的是数目不大，只要以后没有增加就问题不大。

一些需要留意的accounting policies:

"Straight line depreciation based on the following rates:"



(Annual report 2011 Notes 2.7)

"New planting expenditure incurred on land clearing and upkeep of palms to maturity is stated at cost and capitalised under biological assets. A portion of indirect overheads which include general charges and interest expense incurred on immature plantation is similarly capatalised under biological assets until such time when the plantation attains maturity."

"No amortisation is considered necessary on oil palm planting expenditure as its value maintained through replanting programme. Replanting expenditure is recognised in the income statement in the year in which the expenditure is incurred."

"All direct and related expenses incurred on the development of the Company's Sustainable Forest Management Project under a Sustainable Forest Management License Agreement with the State Government of Sabah is stated at cost and capitalised as biological assets. The expenditure will be amortised upon commencement of log extraction on the basis of the volume of logs extracted during the financial year as a proportion of the estimated volume available.

(Annual report 2011 Notes 2.8)

(Annual report 2011 Notes 2.9)

国外还有RM12mil的unutilised tax可以拿来offset以后的盈利。

(Annual report 2011 Notes 23)
发帖者 时间：
标签：

没有评论:

发表评论

订阅： 博文评论 (Atom)