2015-01-07 12:17
2015年剛開跑，馬股已經被不少分析員的“唱淡聲”所環繞；其中，讓這些分析員無法對馬股提起興趣的關鍵原因之一，是馬股盈利的成長展望低迷，導致股市預期估值高居不下。
猶記得，在剛過去的一年裡，大馬經濟書寫了不錯的成長表現，上半年成長率更一度強勢突破6%，可惜這樣的榮景並未反映在商界里，因同期企業盈利反而受到合理化津貼、國行打債等利空的侵蝕，導致馬股盈利書寫讓人尷尬的“零增長”，高估值無以為繼。
像這樣一個“經好商壞”的奇特現象，曾引起不少領域學者的討論，因商界與經濟表現一般會呈同調走勢；無論如何，過去一年的經驗顯示出，除非經濟表現發生劇
變，否則經濟本身其實並不足以獨自操控企業盈利表現，因在營業額轉換成淨利的過程中，仍得扣除諸多成本和開銷。
有鑑於此，當一些專家以油價暴跌將拉低大馬經濟展望為由，決定繼續看淡馬股今年的盈利表現之際，個人認為，投資者們反而該逆向思考：企業盈利是否真的會因經濟放緩而繼續沉淪？
對此，我們不妨留個問號，先來看看已知的兩個因素將如何影響馬股盈利。
首先，最值得留意的當然要屬本地氣油的每公升零售價因國際油價暴跌而從1月開始調低35仙；對於這樣的變化，商界當然喜上眉梢，因至今發展顯示本地商家並沒有打算因油價下跌而降低產品或服務價格。
不過，在汽油降價情況下，整條生產鏈的各層成本都預計有所舒緩，尤其是那些直接成本如能源開銷、運輸費用等；假設一切條件維持不變，那這些省下來的錢，都將直接成為商家們的淨利。
還有一點值得留意的是，經濟學家原本認為低油價的效應相等於一次大型經濟刺激方案，因有助提昇市場消費力道，惟當時大馬因零售汽油尚未轉換成自由浮動模式而被排除在受看好名單外。
再來，就是人們不停談論、將於4月開跑的消費稅；分析員如今對消費稅的看法，大多是趨向悲觀，因為認定消費稅將對市場消費情緒和力道造成負面衝擊，拉低消費股盈利，消費股今年在各大證券行中的首選名單中缺席，正是分析員看淡消費股的最佳證明。
不過，除了類似的悲觀論點外，消費稅對企業盈利的影響，有沒有可能趨向正面？
據筆者所知，這未必是不可能發生的事，因為在從前的銷售和服務稅制度下，商家只是政府收稅的“代理人”，惟新開跑的消費稅卻允許商家根據原料成本向政府索取退稅；假設產品售價保持不變，那商家索回的6%稅務，同樣將直接成為企業盈利。
另外，別忘了本地煙草業者早前遭政府調高煙草稅時，就曾以“彌補需求上的流失”為由，大幅調高香煙售價；結果是，新出爐業績反而顯示，縱然面對增稅的打擊，煙草業者淨利表現卻是不減反增。
若煙草業者漲價的理由被允許，那麼，其他商家會否亦趁消費稅落實時“依樣畫葫蘆”？
同樣地，這裡再留個問號，給各位留點思考空間。
誰也沒法斷言馬股盈利究竟何時才會復甦，唯一能肯定的是，專家們的觀點絕不等於事實，投資者參考之餘，亦得自行思考和分析，投資界中鮮少有“絕對”這回事。（星洲日報／焦點評析：李三宇）
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Petronas may slash domestic investment 30% as crude slumps
Sources
say Petronas is looking to further cut expenditure as oil prices
continue downward. – The Malaysian Insider pic, January 7, 2015.Malaysian
state oil firm Petronas may slash capital expenditure even more than it
has signalled because the continuing rout in oil prices has hurt
revenue, with domestic spending facing cuts of about 30%, sources said
today.Some domestic and international projects that may become unprofitable due to the continued decline in oil prices could be shelved by Petronas, or Petroliam Nasional Bhd, three sources with knowledge of the matter said.
"When oil prices drop too low below our threshold, we will evaluate everything from scratch. But it is all weighed out, it's not just about monetary value," said one source.
"There's a series of projects over the next few years, some of which they will defer, some they will cut," the source added, without naming specific projects. Petronas did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Chief executive Tan Sri Shamsul Azhar Abbas had warned in late November that capital expenditure could be cut by 15% to 20% this year because of the drop in oil prices.
Brent crude was trading around US$71.30 (RM255) per barrel at that time but has since slumped below US$50 for the first time since May 2009 because of a global supply glut.
In all, crude prices have plunged more than 55% since last June, when benchmark Brent traded above US$115 a barrel and US crude above US$107. Analysts say growing supplies mean more price falls are in sight.
Two sources said the cost cuts could also curb operations abroad. Petronas has foreign operations in Africa, Asia, the Americas and the Middle East.
In December high costs caused it to delay giving the go-ahead for a planned US$11 billion liquefied natural gas export terminal in British Columbia.
Petronas, Malaysia's only Fortune 500 company, reported its worst showing in three quarters in July-September with net profit falling to RM15.07 billion from RM17.2 billion a year before.
Every US$1 change in oil prices has a RM1 billion impact on pre-tax profit, according to Shamsul.
Petronas gets about a fifth of its earnings from domestic operations.
It provides most of the Malaysian government's revenue from oil and gas, but last month it said it would have to cut dividends to the government by more than 37% if oil prices stayed below US$75 a barrel.
Projects put on ice could be reactivated once financial conditions made them feasible again.
"In a way we're just saving money because the oil is there," a second source familiar with investment matters said, adding several expansion projects under his watch had already been cut and some of them would have to be redesigned to tighten costs.
The oil price slump is having other ramifications.
The ringgit was Asia's weakest currency in 2014, vulnerable to falling crude prices because of the Southeast Asian country's position as an oil exporter. Today it touched its lowest level against the dollar in 5-1/2 years.
Adding to investor concern about Malaysia, its heavily indebted state investment fund, 1 Malaysia Development Bhd, missed the repayment of a RM2 billion bridge loan at the end of December, sources said. – Reuters, January 7, 2015.
Petronas may slash domestic investment 30% as crude slumps
Sources
say Petronas is looking to further cut expenditure as oil prices
continue downward. – The Malaysian Insider pic, January 7, 2015.Malaysian
state oil firm Petronas may slash capital expenditure even more than it
has signalled because the continuing rout in oil prices has hurt
revenue, with domestic spending facing cuts of about 30%, sources said
today.Some domestic and international projects that may become unprofitable due to the continued decline in oil prices could be shelved by Petronas, or Petroliam Nasional Bhd, three sources with knowledge of the matter said.
"When oil prices drop too low below our threshold, we will evaluate everything from scratch. But it is all weighed out, it's not just about monetary value," said one source.
"There's a series of projects over the next few years, some of which they will defer, some they will cut," the source added, without naming specific projects. Petronas did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Chief executive Tan Sri Shamsul Azhar Abbas had warned in late November that capital expenditure could be cut by 15% to 20% this year because of the drop in oil prices.
Brent crude was trading around US$71.30 (RM255) per barrel at that time but has since slumped below US$50 for the first time since May 2009 because of a global supply glut.
In all, crude prices have plunged more than 55% since last June, when benchmark Brent traded above US$115 a barrel and US crude above US$107. Analysts say growing supplies mean more price falls are in sight.
Two sources said the cost cuts could also curb operations abroad. Petronas has foreign operations in Africa, Asia, the Americas and the Middle East.
In December high costs caused it to delay giving the go-ahead for a planned US$11 billion liquefied natural gas export terminal in British Columbia.
Petronas, Malaysia's only Fortune 500 company, reported its worst showing in three quarters in July-September with net profit falling to RM15.07 billion from RM17.2 billion a year before.
Every US$1 change in oil prices has a RM1 billion impact on pre-tax profit, according to Shamsul.
Petronas gets about a fifth of its earnings from domestic operations.
It provides most of the Malaysian government's revenue from oil and gas, but last month it said it would have to cut dividends to the government by more than 37% if oil prices stayed below US$75 a barrel.
Projects put on ice could be reactivated once financial conditions made them feasible again.
"In a way we're just saving money because the oil is there," a second source familiar with investment matters said, adding several expansion projects under his watch had already been cut and some of them would have to be redesigned to tighten costs.
The oil price slump is having other ramifications.
The ringgit was Asia's weakest currency in 2014, vulnerable to falling crude prices because of the Southeast Asian country's position as an oil exporter. Today it touched its lowest level against the dollar in 5-1/2 years.
Adding to investor concern about Malaysia, its heavily indebted state investment fund, 1 Malaysia Development Bhd, missed the repayment of a RM2 billion bridge loan at the end of December, sources said. – Reuters, January 7, 2015.
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