2017年5月17日星期三

Frontkn - Buying Time for Growth- YiStock


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Add On: 25 February 2016
Frontkn has just released a set of "better" result compared to immediate preceeding quarters. Once again, i update below segment report.
I anticipated earlier that this quarter suppose to be a profitable quarter due to possible profit guarantee kick-in and taiwan segment to deliver the profit that i forecast.
Taiwan Segment did a very near to forecast Revenue (about 30 million) but the profit has shortfall by RM 4.4 million and achieve only RM 2.652 million. Ringgit has strengten during the 4th quarter. The fall could be due to much lower forex gain.
In Q3 2015 report, the forex gain was RM 3.325 million. For Q4 2015, Forex gain is RM 0.058 million. The different is only by RM 3.26 million. But the profit has falled by RM 4.4 million eventhough higher Revenue is registered in Q4 compared to Q3.
Local engineering segment has done badly as expected due to weak oil and gas sector.
As for balance sheet, we all know that Frontken has now RM 108 million cash in their account and balance sheet continue to stay healthy. This is remarkable. NTA has now stood at RM 0.26 per share.
With Current share price of RM 0.175 per share, it is traded about 32% below its NTA.
Since i'm already on board, I will wait a little longer.

Cheers,
YiStock

 Frontkn           
 Revenue (mil)Twn SgMyPhiIndonChina    
 2013Q113,948 18,0277,2053,637300563    
 2013Q216,197 15,1568,3793,068384683    
 2013Q317,839 21,0498,6522,843358594    
 2013Q417,746 25,5169,4164,403697439    
 Total65,730 79,74833,65213,9511,7392,279    
             
 2014Q117,915 17,04610,7533,017758217    
 2014Q220,350 13,79638,8412,6932590    
 2014Q322,807CAGR14,49045,7312,80700    
 2014Q431,19511.00%21,66652,6503,0284330    
 Total92,267228,18566,998147,97511,5451,450217    
             
 2015Q123,456 13,20537,9053,811844N/A    
 2015Q225,913 13,31825,1733,815523     
 2015Q329,417    14,877    22,221      3,930        745     
>>>2015Q430,254     12,410    21,548      4,289        471     
 Total109,040     53,810    85,299    15,845     2,583     Sold    
             
             
 Operating Profit (mil)Twn SgMyPhiIndonChina    
 2013Q1787 819518516-278-28    
 2013Q22,854 -523-1,215365-175-266    
 2013Q33,380 945-379348-926-352    
 2013Q42,226 1,232-243646-242-590    
 Total9,247 2,473-1,3191,875-1,621-1,236    
             
 2014Q12,303 -115795564329-618    
 2014Q23,532 -1,9962,914377-563-569    
 2014Q33,823 9734,065369-3-177    
 2014Q44,395 2,3614,709317-181-1,519    
 Total14,053 1,22312,4831,627-418-2,883    
             
   CAGR         
 2015Q15,0427.37%-4345,57178351Sold    
 2015Q25,819 -1,644-2,932757-257     
 2015Q37,069      1,043    -6,415         690      -160     
>>>>2015Q42,652         255        229         824      -391     
 FORECAST        20,582        -780   -3,547      3,059      -757      Sold    


Add On: 1 Dec 2015
Please Note: The articles i wrote are merely for sharing purpose only. All data are pending verification and It is not a buy call.
Also, these articles are for value investors and mature thinker only. It is definetely not suitable for kids/ immatured thinker/ speculators. If you belongs to later group, please do not read on. Thank you
Hi All,
        Having written a long long story about Frontkn, i have come to a very critical decision making point:
1) i know that Taiwan Segment is doing very well
2) i know that local Engineering segment is doing very badly
3) i know there maybe a Profit Guarantee from TTES which may or may not kick in for the last Q of 2015.
So,
if the oil & gas segment continue to be weak, what will happened to the company future RIGHT AFTER the profit guarantee which is non-recurring? What if the Taiwan segment start slowing down after Q4? Should i take the opportunity to dispose my holding when the price spike due to the profit guarantee (one-off non-recurring).
This is a critical point i'm considering now.
YiStock


Add On: 25th November 2015
3rd Q Result Update
Please Note: The articles i wrote are merely for sharing purpose only. All data are pending verification and It is not a buy call.
Also, these articles are for value investors and mature thinker only. It is definetely not suitable for kids/ immatured thinker/ speculators. If you belongs to later group, please do not read on. Thank you

Hi All Value Investors,
        Frontken has released another set of 3Q dissapoiting, but within expectation" result: TAIWAN SEGMENT continue to do well, LOCAL ENGINEERING SEGMENT are still weak.
Let do a quick update on the segment info:
 
 Frontkn           
 Revenue (mil)Twn SgMyPhiIndonChina    
 2013Q113,948 18,0277,2053,637300563    
 2013Q216,197 15,1568,3793,068384683    
 2013Q317,839 21,0498,6522,843358594    
 2013Q417,746 25,5169,4164,403697439    
 Total65,730 79,74833,65213,9511,7392,279    
             
 2014Q117,915 17,04610,7533,017758217    
 2014Q220,350 13,79638,8412,6932590    
 2014Q322,807CAGR14,49045,7312,80700    
 2014Q431,19511.00%21,66652,6503,0284330    
 Total92,267228,18566,998147,97511,5451,450217    
             
 2015Q123,456 13,20537,9053,811844N/A    
 2015Q225,913 13,31825,1733,815523     
>>>2015Q329,417    14,877    22,221      3,930        745     
 ****2015Q432,079          
 Total110,865     Sold    
             
* Result include Q3 2015
             
 Operating Profit (mil)Twn SgMyPhiIndonChina    
 2013Q1787 819518516-278-28    
 2013Q22,854 -523-1,215365-175-266    
 2013Q33,380 945-379348-926-352    
 2013Q42,226 1,232-243646-242-590    
 Total9,247 2,473-1,3191,875-1,621-1,236    
             
 2014Q12,303 -115795564329-618    
 2014Q23,532 -1,9962,914377-563-569    
 2014Q33,823 9734,065369-3-177    
 2014Q44,395 2,3614,709317-181-1,519    
 Total14,053 1,22312,4831,627-418-2,883    
             
   CAGR         
 2015Q15,0427.37%-4345,57178351Sold    
 2015Q25,819 -1,644-2,932757-257     
>>>****2015Q37,069      1,043    -6,415        690      -160     
 ****2015Q47,057          
 FORECAST       24,276           Sold    
* Result include Q3 2015.
* Noted that Taiwan segment has actually perform better (RM7,069,000) than my forecast (RM 6,358,000). The biggest loss was detected on Malaysia engineering segment.
Let Do a Quick Check on the balance Sheet


* One glance on the balance sheet. It gets better and better.

One key special note:
Ever since Frontkn delisted Ares Green from taiwan Gretai exchange, the monthly update on the revenue is no longer available.
Also, allowed me once again reiterate that, I didnt say frontkn will be inari, I SAID, could it be another "HEART WRENCHING" stock like Inari? Is all because of panic that causes the share price to roller coster. Many will be heart wrenching when they sell the share at low, buy the share at high, then sell again at low...the cycle continue..........At least 3 times (green arrow), the speculators will 槌心肝


Cheers!
YiStock


Add On: 8 Oct 2015
Complete 3rd Quarter Result of NT$ 236,849,000. or average aboout 11% increase in Revenue (3rd Q) compared to 2014 3Q. M-to-M saw a reduction of -4.89% in Sept 15 compared to previous year corresponding month.
Noticed also Ringgit has weaken further compared to NT$ and if i would to use 1 to 7.7, that would translate into RM 30,759,000 of Revenue (+6% from my forecast??) or RM 6.77 million operating profit ?

Let see the final outcome in November.

Cheers!







Dear Fellow Value Investors,
          The recent released report from frontkn has demonstrated the impact from slow down from oil& gas sector and the end of tanjung bin project. Such impact has been felt by many oil & gas related companies too. Therefore, it is not a surprise drop at all.
Thankfully to Taiwan Segment. There are doing well.  The revenue for 2ndQ 2015 come slightly lower (-0.58%) than my projection of RM 26.036 million, it gives a 25.913 million. I suppose the slight different were due to my exchange calculation and is insignificant. However, the operating profit of  taiwan segment, has come a slightly above (about RM 47k) than my forcast, turn out to be RM 5.819 million. Latest released July figures of Taiwan Ares Green still showing robust growth. Therefore, taiwan segment shoud be able to achieve full year RM 24 million projected operating profit. Furthermore, traditionally, Ares Green revenue will pick up towards the end of financial year. I hope they maintain the pace.
Af for engineering segment, the result is dissapointing but is within expectation.  Judging on the slower economy growth in SG, Malaysia and Indonesia, the trend may continue for 2 more quarters,if not sooner. Philippine economy is expanding well. However, i still believe the impact by the slow down in engineering will be cushioned well by the profit guaranteed with TTES (final quarter) except for unforseen circumstances.
As mentioned in my previous post, i believe Frontkn has strategised well and has imposed strategy to buy time for the Taiwan Segment to grow. The full year taiwan segment for 2015 should be able to beat the whole year 2014 total segment results. Thanks to:
1) profit guaranteed from TTES
2) robust growth and expansion on Taiwan Ares Green and Taiwan Semi-conductor segment plus better operating margin.
3) weakening of Ringgit
3) continue to chop off the loss making region. By the way, the recent disposal of Wuxi region should not negatively impact the upcoming result as i believe this is on equity change which has been adjusted from quarter to quarter basis. But, a sum of not too much cash will be added back to company's cash flow.
4) stremelining the organization and cost rationalisation has been under going. Recent event include the restructuring of shares by Dr Jorg Helmunt Hohnloser and DBAG; delisting the Ares Green from Gretai Securities which not only shows the financial health is healthy and at the same time save some listing cost (~ NT$ 50,000 per year) and more on listing related administrative cost.
5) Gaining foot hold of German CleanPart group in Asia Region via Frontken & Ares Green (both in semi-conductor industry and medical equipment industry)
6) At RM 0.155, frontkn is trading at 33% discount of its book value of RM 0.22 per share. I classified frontkn as growth stock still.. very unfortunate to see speculators to cut loss without looking at the value. Perhaps to them, Frontkn is just another gambling den.
7) Occasionally i do see people showing grave concern especially when a company with foreign exposure suffered a "foreign exchange loss". For frontkn's case, the foreign currency exchange gain actually contributed to the total comprehensive income for the year. Although it is not an operation gain, but any Tom, Tim & Harry should know that a foreign exchange gain, is also a form of gain. Thid is one of the important point to pay attention on for company that having operation in oversea.
Therefore, i personally still maintain my target price of RM 0.37 to RM 0.51 for Frontkn.

 Frontkn           
 Revenue (mil)Twn SgMyPhiIndonChina    
 2013Q113,948 18,0277,2053,637300563    
 2013Q216,197 15,1568,3793,068384683    
 2013Q317,839 21,0498,6522,843358594    
 2013Q417,746 25,5169,4164,403697439    
 Total65,730 79,74833,65213,9511,7392,279    
             
 2014Q117,915 17,04610,7533,017758217    
 2014Q220,350 13,79638,8412,6932590    
 2014Q322,807CAGR14,49045,7312,80700    
 2014Q431,19511.00%21,66652,6503,0284330    
 Total92,267228,18566,998147,97511,5451,450217    
             
 2015Q123,456 13,20537,9053,811844N/A    
 2015Q225,913 13,31825,1733,815523     
 ****2015Q328,900          
 ****2015Q432,079          
 Total110,348     Sold    
             
* Result include Q2 2015
             
 Operating Profit (mil)Twn SgMyPhiIndonChina    
 2013Q1787 819518516-278-28    
 2013Q22,854 -523-1,215365-175-266    
 2013Q33,380 945-379348-926-352    
 2013Q42,226 1,232-243646-242-590    
 Total9,247 2,473-1,3191,875-1,621-1,236 172Exclude taiwan 
          9,419Include taiwan 
 2014Q12,303 -115795564329-618    
 2014Q23,532 -1,9962,914377-563-569    
 2014Q33,823 9734,065369-3-177    
 2014Q44,395 2,3614,709317-181-1,519    
 Total14,053 1,22312,4831,627-418-2,883 12,032Exclude taiwan 
          26,085Include taiwan 
   CAGR         
 2015Q15,0427.37%-4345,57178351Sold    
 2015Q25,819 -1,644-2,932757-257     
 ****2015Q36,358          
 ****2015Q47,057       3,627Exclude taiwan 
 FORECAST       24,276           Sold 27,226Include taiwan 
* Result include Q2 2015.


Now, Let look at the balance sheet:

I am pleased with the financial health still. Notable cash pile up to RM 90 million or 8.8 sen per share. This sum of money allowed Frontkn to continue acquire businesses without having to incur additional liability.
For Value Investors, i will still buy in Frontkn on the weakness. The lower the price, the merrier. The recent sell down on bursa has created another good buying price for us. In share investment, patient is virtue. Do your calculation and wait for your own right price to buy more.
For Speculator, i sincerely hope you stop treating bursa like gambling den, like i did before. Moving from gambling den to another gambling den will kill you - softly-.
Cheers,
YiStock
29 Aug 2015

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