［开源证券：买入］业绩符合预期 世界级手套龙头呼之欲出

 

百年未有之机遇，加速向全球行业龙头迈进，维持“买入”评级
2020 年业绩预告归母净利润68-73 亿元，业绩中值70.5 亿元，其中第四季度24.3-29.3 亿元，预计较第三季度24.5 亿元持续增长，其中Q4 丁腈胶乳和PVC 煳树脂涨价预计影响4-6 个亿净利润。全球新冠疫情导致防护手套需求激增，价格大幅增长；同时2020 年公司产能大幅提升，从2019 年底190 亿只增加到2020 年底360 亿只，同比增速89.5%，未来2-3 年公司产能持续快速扩张，保守预计占到全球30%市场份额。基于手套价格高位持续时间和产能有望超预期，我们上调2021-2022 年公司归母净利润，保守预计2020-2022 年净利润分别为70.8、154.7和174.1 亿元（前值75.3、120.4、72.9 亿元），EPS 分别为20.1/43.9/49.4 元，当前股价对应PE 分别为14.4/6.6/5.9 倍，维持“买入”评级。
新冠疫情导致丁腈手套需求3 倍增量，疫情过后需求有望提速
2014-2019 年乳胶手套需求复合增速8%左右，2019 年销量约2600 亿只，丁腈手套增速10%左右，销量约1600 亿只。根据美国供应环节特别工作组报告，2020年3-7 月丁腈手套平均单月需求量约90 亿只，大约是疫情前的3 倍（疫情前单月30 亿只左右），其中医院需求从单月10 亿只左右，增加至50 亿只左右，4 倍增量，长期护理和紧急救护均增加1 倍以上。我们预测疫情期间全球丁腈手套缺口3400 亿只左右，疫情后需求有望提速。
加速扩建高质量优势产能，有望跨越式成长为全球最具竞争力行业龙头
上游布局原材料和投资热电联产，制造成本有望显著降低，生产线效率已达全球最高水平，成本端大幅领先竞争对手。凭借国内工业配套、土地、劳动力等优势加速扩建产能，保守预测2021-2022 年产能分别到800 亿只和1200 亿只，2021年一季度有望成为全球最大的非天然橡胶手套供应商，3 年产能有望突破1500亿只，跨越式成为行业领头羊。销售渠道和品牌能力全球第一，自有品牌销量占比大幅增加，商业模式有望从ODM 向OBM 延伸，盈利能力有望大幅提升
风险提示：产能扩建低预期；中美贸易摩擦影响出口；原材料涨价；汇率大幅波动；销售不及预期及降价。

相关股票：$英科医疗(SZ300677)$
研究员： 开源证券 ● 杜佐远
发布时间：2021-01-26

作者：英科医疗(SZ300677)
链接：https://xueqiu.com/S/SZ300677/169960193
来源：雪球
著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权，非商业转载请注明出处。
风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。

DeepFck!n Value BursaBets Here in KLSE - BIMB-WA

 

Author: Sipekhuat    |    Publish date: Wed, 3 Feb 2021, 1:21 AM

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DeepFck!n Value BursaBets Here in KLSE : BIMB-WA

 

Most people have the “grass is greener on the otherside” mindset. However, without looking any further, we have our Own DeepFck!nValue counter in Malaysia too- BIMB-wa.

Introduction for BIMB and BIMB-wa: 

News Analysis:

On 11 December 2019, announcement made by BIMB to undertake restructuring exercise to unlock value, transfer listing to Bank Islam. One of the condition caught our attention.
“Other aspects of the restructuring include a Scheme of Arrangement (SOA) by BIMB to settle its outstanding warrants, whereby BIMB warrant holders would be paid a cash consideration for the cancellation of exercise rights in respect of the warrants.”

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bimb-undertake-restructuring-exercise-unlock-value-transfer-listing-status-bank-islam


BIMB-wa was issued to the renounceable rights of 426,715,958 shares of RM1 each in BIMB Holding Berhad.  Now, We dont have to look at the Exercise price for all these warrants, because at the end of the day, BIMB will settle all the warrants with cash. 

And recently 29/1/2021, BIMB announced a new condition;

“ (ii) the Warrants Consideration, which was originally proposed to be RM0.26 per Warrant via the First Announcement, has been revised such that the Warrants Consideration shall now be determined based on the five (5)-day VWAP of the Warrants immediately preceding the price-fixing date for the Warrants Consideration but shall in no event be lower than RM0.26 per Warrant.” https://malaysiastock.biz/Company-Announcement.aspx?id=1291884

Meaning to say that, regardless of what the price of warrants are, BIMB will buy back from market, using its 5 days VWAP before the price fixing date, and it will not be lower than RM0.26.
Well, isnt this a JACKPOT ? As you can see that your downside is already fixed, RM0.26,  while the upside (depending on the price fixing date) will be unlimited ?

Technical analysis:

As you can see after the announcement made by BIMB on 29 Jan 2021, many smart investors rushed in to buy BIMB-WA. Any price below RM0.26 is a sure win. Price of RM0.26 is sure wont lose. However anything above, you already can see your downside is RM0.26, but, the upside is unlimited until they decided on the price fixing date.

Also, lets compare other company warrants;

As seen above, BIMB-WA is comparable to those fundamentally strong stocks such as SCIENTX-wc and KPOWER-wa which warrants are at least RM0.85 and RM0.895. 

Conclusion:

We believe in risk management when it comes to trading. When we know what is our definite downside, we already know the risk we are taking when taking a trade. The Reward to Risk ratio for BIMB-WA is 5.1 if the price goes to RM0.40 and sustain.

Previously, BIMB buy back the BIMB-WA for a maximum of RM0.260, however with this recent announcement, the buy back of the BIMB-WA is for MINIMUM of RM0.260. This tells us that BIMB are willing to pay to buy back the BIMB-WA for their restructuring plan to take place. 

 

What will you do ?

DISCLAIMER: This post serves as an educational analysis and is never meant to be a buy/sell call or recomendation. Investors must always do their own due deligence before making any investment decisions. The author of this post is not liable in any way for any decisions made by any individual.

NOTION VTEC BERHAD (0083)

 

Last Price	Change	Volume
0.915	-0.010 (-1.08%)	86,379
Open: 0.925	Day Range: 0.900 - 0.940	Prev Close: 0.925

OTHERS Notion VTec Berhad ("NVB" or "the Company") - New Business Activities in the Healthcare Industry

NOTION VTEC BERHAD

Type	Announcement
Subject	OTHERS
Description	Notion VTec Berhad ("NVB" or "the Company") - New Business Activities in the Healthcare Industry
We refer to the Company's announcement dated 30 October 2020 in relation to New Business Activities in the Healthcare Industry.   The Board of Directors (“Board”) wishes to announce that Notion Venture Sdn Bhd ("NVSB"), a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company, has obtained a Certificate of Registration from Registrar Corp certified that NVSB is registered with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) for Financial Year 2021 for the Polymer Patient Examination Glove. Please note that the Company needs a 510(k), a premarket submission to FDA demonstrates that the device to be marketed is safe and effective and the submission is currently underway.   Also, the Company has submitted the necessary documents to apply for the European Conformity (CE) marking certification for the nitrile gloves from the European Union and the approval is expected to be obtained soon.   Both certifications are necessary for marketing the nitrile gloves in the USA and Europe, in which the Company’s nitrile gloves is currently supplied by Original Equipment Manufacturers, and brand building of the “Novid” brand will be taking place before the Company’s gloves production starts in middle of 2021.   Furthermore, the Company is also engaging with potential glove buyers on Manufacturing Lease Agreement on some gloves lines to be set up. NVB will dedicate all the output of the lines to glove buyers on a Cost Plus basis with an upfront leasing charge over a period of 24 months. By doing so, it is able to mitigate risks of NVB.   The Company will make further announcements whenever there is any material development on the above business activities.   This announcement is dated 2 November 2020. NOTION VTEC BERHAD (0083) Last Price Change Volume 0.915  -0.010 (-1.08%) 86,379 Open: 0.925 Day Range: 0.900 - 0.940 Prev Close: 0.925 Changes in Director's Interest (Section 219 of CA 2016) NOTION VTEC BERHAD Information Compiled By KLSE Particulars of Director Name MR CHOO WING HONG Descriptions(Class) Ordinary Shares Details of changes No Date of change No of securities Type of transaction Nature of Interest 1 23/10/2020 1,000,000 Acquired Direct Interest Name of registered holder Choo Wing Hong Description of "Others" Type of Transaction Consideration (if any) 1.1775 Circumstances by reason of which change has occurred Purchase of Ordinary Shares via open market Nature of interest Direct Interest Total no of securities after change Direct (units) 52,582,939 Direct (%) 10.216 Indirect/deemed interest (units) 0 Indirect/deemed interest (%) 0.000 Date of notice 27/10/2020 Date notice received by Listed Issuer 27/10/2020 Remarks : After change, the direct interest are as follows:- (i) Choo Wing Hong - 31,582,939 Ordinary Shares (ii) RHB Capital Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Pledged Securities Account for Choo Wing Hong - 21,000,000 Ordinary Shares The percentage of holding is based on the issued share capital of 514,711,156 Ordinary Shares. This announcement is also made to comply with Paragraph 14.09 of the Main Market Listing Requirements of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad. Announcement Info Company Name NOTION VTEC BERHAD Stock Name NOTION Date Announced 27 Oct 2020 Category Changes in Director's Interest Pursuant to Section 219 of CA 2016 Reference Number CS4-24102020-00006

VTEC Turbo Engine Starting Soon - NOTION VTEC (0083)

Author: Sipekhuat    |    Publish date: Tue, 2 Feb 2021, 12:05 AM

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VTEC Turbo Engine Starting Soon - NOTION VTEC (0083)

For the Past 2 weeks in the global market, especially in USA, we saw that anything Elon Musk (Tesla Ceo) tweeted essentially would move the market, ie: GameStop (GME) and Bitcoin. Well if only Elon Musk would tweet about our KLSE stocks, then things would definitely be interesting!
 

Nevertheless, lets get back to our VTEC Turbo Engine Starting Soon - NOTION VTEC (0083)

 

Company Analysis:

NOTION (0083) is involved in:

1. Digital Storage- making of HDD which is growing with the usage of shingled magnetic recording (SMR) and helium drive which enhances GB storage. 

 

2. Health Care products- NOVID masks and Nitrile gloves. Notion(0083) is dynamically adaptable and is quick to act to venture in to the “hot-covid themed business”. On 2 Nov 2020, they already acquired the FDA for nitrile gloves https://malaysiastock.biz/Company-Announcement.aspx?id=1271161 . Notion(0083) also secured a RM337mil contract to supply nitrile gloves. https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/09/22/notion-vtec-secures-rm337mil-nitrile-glove-supply-contract 

 

As for Face Masks they also received FDA already. Website is as follows; https://www.novid.my/ 

 

3. EMS accessories segment where the main focus is to fabricate, laser cut, robotic laser welding, surface finishing, and many other services to suit clients needs. 

 

4. Automotive segment . 

 

Share buyback Analysis:

Recently Mr Choo Wing Hong(managing director & executive director) acquired 1,000,000 units of Notion (0083) at RM1.1775, a 34.5% premium compared to RM0.875 (closing on 29/1/2021).

https://malaysiastock.biz/Company-Announcement.aspx?id=1269559  

 

Technical Analysis:

 

 

NOTION (0083) is changing from down trend to Up-trend by forming Higher Lows as seen in the chart. Immediate resistance is at RM0.885 should this resistance be broken the next resistance is RM0.985. 

With support of RM0.840, the Reward to Risk ratio is 3.30.

 

Conclusion:

We strongly believe that NOTION(0083) is a guided by management who is quick to act to position themselves in the current themed business. As for the future where electrical cars, Artificial Intelligent , 5G and Technology dominates, will the management of Notion(0083) once again react fast enough to penetrate such market ?

 

What will you do ?

DISCLAIMER: This post serves as an educational analysis and is never meant to be a buy/sell call or recomendation. Investors must always do their own due deligence before making any investment decisions. The author of this post is not liable in any way for any decisions made by any individual.

 

Potentially Super Growth in 2021

 

Author: Sipekhuat    |    Publish date: Tue, 16 Feb 2021, 12:54 AM

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Potentially Super Growth in 2021

 

Welcome back to “The Huat Project”. Today we would like to emphasize on a stock which Potentially Super Growth in 2021 - SCOMNET (0001).

 

While many have already lose steam the COVID-19 Theme, or the Healthcare Sector, We would like to present SCOMNET(0001), as they are ready to experience exponential growth in 2021 despite being “related” to the Healthcare sector. 

 

From our understanding, SCOMNET(0001) is actually a TECHNOLOGY company, who manufactures high-end tech for medical industry, “An Industry-Leading Automated Medical Manufacturer”.

 

Analyst Opinion:

RAKUTEN analyst Vincent says its a “buy” with target price of RM2.68

 

 

UOB Kay Hian analyst says its a “buy” with target price of RM2.40

SCOMNET(0001) is also the top stock pick for 2021 as per The Star reported. 

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/01/02/stock-picks-for-2021 

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

SCOMNET(0001) main customers are USA based Edward Lifescience, Denmark based Ambu & Mermaid Medical which are well known medical leaders in the industry.

 

SCOMNET(0001) is a net cash company with 56mil in their balance sheet, and ZERO borrowings.

Analysts estimate an averagely of RM30mil for FY20, and the quarter results should be released before end of February. If previous 3 quarter hey did about RM16mil, what will happen to stock price if a sudden surge of profit to RM14mil for the forth quarter ? again this is based on the analyst estimate of RM30mil for FY20. For FY21, Rakuten Analyst estimates profit of RM50.5mil, well isnt that almost double of FY20?

 

Will stock price double as well? We do not know but we know that SCOMNET (0001) is well positioned for a exponential growth in 2021

 

Technical Analysis:

SCOMNET(0001) will most likely break out from the interim resistance for RM2.16 to retest its previous high of RM2.38. With RM2.00 as support, the Reward to Risk Ratio is about 4 times.

 

Conclusion:

 

We strongly believe that SCOMNET(0001) is ready to experience a SUPER GROWTH in 2021. With the FY20 earning estimates of RM30mil, and previous 3 quarters done about total of RM16mil, will the coming 4th quarter results be RM14mil? If RM14mil we believe the stock price will sky rocket to new high uncharted areas.

 

The forth quarterly financial results should be released before end of February.

What will you do ? 

 

DISCLAIMER: This post serves as an educational analysis and is never meant to be a buy/sell call or recommendation. Investors must always do their own due diligence before making any investment decisions. The author of this post is not liable in any way for any decisions made by any individual.