2014年10月8日星期三

Maybank Research Highlights - 8 Oct 2014


Author: kltrader   |   Publish date: Wed, 8 Oct 10:05

Local News
Banking: Bursa's call.Bursa committee to decide on EPF's right to vote on the mega merger between CIMB, RHB Cap and MBSB as they are soon entering a new phase, with 90-day exclusivity agreement between the three parties ending today. Under the current listing rules, the EPF would have been prevented from voting as it is a substantial shareholder of all three parties. However, it is learnt that RHB Cap and MBSB had written to the regulator to seek a waiver from complying with the rules. (Source: Business Times, The Edge Financial Daily)

Oil & Gas: Petronas's LNG project in Canada could be shelved 15 years if tax rebates not given. Petronas warned that if tax incentives from the Canadian government were not acceptable, then it could shelve the project’s implementation by up to 15 years. (Source: The Star)

Utilities: 1MDB set to gain USD1b loan to refinance debt. The USD1b one-year loan is to be used to refinance group debt ahead of its power business which is seeking to raise more than USD3b. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

QL: QL's takeover of Lay Hong turns mandatory as its shareholding in the latter had exceeded 33%. Filings with Bursa showed that QL, between Sept 24 and Oct 2, purchased shares in Lay Hong at prices between MYR3.17 and MYR3.50 a piece. QL added that terms and conditions of the offer will remain the same under the mandatory general offer. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Green Packet: Appoints CEO to replace founder Puan. Tan Kay Yen, 42 was appointed as CEO, taking the helm from founder Puan Chan Cheong, 45, who is moving to head Packet One Networks (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (P1) as its CEO and managing director. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
Outside Malaysia
Global: IMF cuts outlook as risk of 'frothy' stocks raised. The International Monetary Fund cut its outlook for global growth in 2015 and warned about the risks of rising geopolitical tensions and a financial-market correction as stocks reach "frothy" levels. The world economy will grow 3.8% next year, compared with a July forecast for 4%, after a 3.3% expansion this year, the Washington-based IMF said. U.S. growth is helping lead a worldwide acceleration that's weaker than the fund predicted 2 1/2 months ago as the outlooks for the euro area, Brazil, Russia and Japan deteriorate. (Source: Bloomberg)

Germany: Industrial production fell more than forecast in August in the latest sign that the outlook for Europe's largest economy is deteriorating. Production, adjusted for seasonal swings, dropped 4% MoM from July, when it expanded 1.6% MoM, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said. (Source: Bloomberg)

East Asia: World Bank cuts regions forecast on China. The World Bank lowered its forecasts for growth in developing East Asia this year and next as China's expansion moderates and policy makers' brace for tighter global monetary conditions. The region is forecast to grow 6.9% in 2014 and 2015, down from 7.1% projected in April, the Washington-based lender said in its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update released. China will expand 7.4% this year and 7.2% next year, compared with 7.6% and 7.5% previously forecast, the report showed. (Source: Bloomberg)

China: Cuts thousands of ‘phantom’ workers from state payroll. China's government removed tens of thousands of "phantom employees" from state payrolls amid a campaign by President Xi Jinping to crack down on corruption and eliminate waste. A total of 162,629 employees who had continued to draw salaries after leaving their posts were cleared out of central and provincial governments, state-controlled financial companies and universities as of Sept. 25, the official People's Daily reported. The country also disposed of 114,418 government vehicles, it said in a separate report. (Source: Bloomberg)

Japan: The Bank of Japan maintained its record stimulus as the yen traded near a six-year low and economists pushed back forecasts for further monetary easing. The central bank kept its pledge to increase the monetary base at an annual pace of JPY 60t to JPY 70t (USD 643b), it said. (Source: Bloomberg)

Indonesia: Holds key rate as central bank sees inflation risk. Indonesia's central bank held its key interest rate at 7.5%, keeping monetary policy tight as it signaled vigilance against inflation risks and anticipates an end to U.S. monetary easing. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo and his board kept the reference rate unchanged for an 11th straight meeting, according to a central bank statement in Jakarta. It also kept the deposit facility rate unchanged at 5.75%. (Source: Bloomberg)

Retail Market Monitor - 3 Oct 2014


Author: UOBKayHian   |   Publish date: Fri, 3 Oct 10:36

MARKET NEWS

The FBMKLCI fell 7.64pt to close at 1,837.68yesterday as investors started trimming positions ahead of an extended weekend for a holiday next Monday. The weak overnight US market played a part as the broader market took a hit amid regionaluncertainty. Meanwhile, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5% with the benchmark index heading for a fourth day of losses, after consumer confidence in the US unexpectedly declined and Hong Kong braced for bigger protests. The top losers were British American Tobacco (-3.5%), SapuraKencana Petroleum (-2.9%) and CIMB (-2.5%) whilethe top gainers were KLK (+1.4%), PPB Group (+1.1%) and IOI Corp (+0.4%). In the broader market, losers outpaced gainers 732 to 179 with 699 counters unchanged. Turnover was 2.13b shares valued at RM1.88b.
Despite our optimistic view, the FBMKLCI has sunk lower on the back of weaker sentiments regionally. Given the current negative connotation, the index is likely to slide lower, taking into account the extended weekend as investors are likely to trim their positions. Violation of the immediate support of 1,832 is likely to send the index towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1,818. Nevertheless, we maintain our longterm bullish view as we perceive the current jitters as a normal correction. Support and resistance levels are as follows:
  • Support: 1,832, 1,818
  • Resistance: 1,879, 1,896
US markets swung wildly between gains and losses on Thursday but finished the session virtually unchanged. The S&P 500 closed a fraction higher at 1,946.17 while the DJIA ended down 3.66 points at 16,801.05. Weekly jobless claims came in stronger than expected as the number of people applying for new unemployment benefits fell by 8,000 to 287,000 in the past week of September. DirecTV was up 0.9% after the satellite-TV provider late Wednesday said it had reached a multi-yearagreement with the National Football League.
Source: UOB Kay Hian Research - 3 Oct 2014

Maybank Research Highlights - 8 Oct 2014


Author: kltrader   |   Publish date: Wed, 8 Oct 10:05

Local News
Banking: Bursa's call.Bursa committee to decide on EPF's right to vote on the mega merger between CIMB, RHB Cap and MBSB as they are soon entering a new phase, with 90-day exclusivity agreement between the three parties ending today. Under the current listing rules, the EPF would have been prevented from voting as it is a substantial shareholder of all three parties. However, it is learnt that RHB Cap and MBSB had written to the regulator to seek a waiver from complying with the rules. (Source: Business Times, The Edge Financial Daily)

Oil & Gas: Petronas's LNG project in Canada could be shelved 15 years if tax rebates not given. Petronas warned that if tax incentives from the Canadian government were not acceptable, then it could shelve the project’s implementation by up to 15 years. (Source: The Star)

Utilities: 1MDB set to gain USD1b loan to refinance debt. The USD1b one-year loan is to be used to refinance group debt ahead of its power business which is seeking to raise more than USD3b. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

QL: QL's takeover of Lay Hong turns mandatory as its shareholding in the latter had exceeded 33%. Filings with Bursa showed that QL, between Sept 24 and Oct 2, purchased shares in Lay Hong at prices between MYR3.17 and MYR3.50 a piece. QL added that terms and conditions of the offer will remain the same under the mandatory general offer. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Green Packet: Appoints CEO to replace founder Puan. Tan Kay Yen, 42 was appointed as CEO, taking the helm from founder Puan Chan Cheong, 45, who is moving to head Packet One Networks (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (P1) as its CEO and managing director. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
Outside Malaysia
Global: IMF cuts outlook as risk of 'frothy' stocks raised. The International Monetary Fund cut its outlook for global growth in 2015 and warned about the risks of rising geopolitical tensions and a financial-market correction as stocks reach "frothy" levels. The world economy will grow 3.8% next year, compared with a July forecast for 4%, after a 3.3% expansion this year, the Washington-based IMF said. U.S. growth is helping lead a worldwide acceleration that's weaker than the fund predicted 2 1/2 months ago as the outlooks for the euro area, Brazil, Russia and Japan deteriorate. (Source: Bloomberg)

Germany: Industrial production fell more than forecast in August in the latest sign that the outlook for Europe's largest economy is deteriorating. Production, adjusted for seasonal swings, dropped 4% MoM from July, when it expanded 1.6% MoM, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said. (Source: Bloomberg)

East Asia: World Bank cuts regions forecast on China. The World Bank lowered its forecasts for growth in developing East Asia this year and next as China's expansion moderates and policy makers' brace for tighter global monetary conditions. The region is forecast to grow 6.9% in 2014 and 2015, down from 7.1% projected in April, the Washington-based lender said in its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update released. China will expand 7.4% this year and 7.2% next year, compared with 7.6% and 7.5% previously forecast, the report showed. (Source: Bloomberg)

China: Cuts thousands of ‘phantom’ workers from state payroll. China's government removed tens of thousands of "phantom employees" from state payrolls amid a campaign by President Xi Jinping to crack down on corruption and eliminate waste. A total of 162,629 employees who had continued to draw salaries after leaving their posts were cleared out of central and provincial governments, state-controlled financial companies and universities as of Sept. 25, the official People's Daily reported. The country also disposed of 114,418 government vehicles, it said in a separate report. (Source: Bloomberg)

Japan: The Bank of Japan maintained its record stimulus as the yen traded near a six-year low and economists pushed back forecasts for further monetary easing. The central bank kept its pledge to increase the monetary base at an annual pace of JPY 60t to JPY 70t (USD 643b), it said. (Source: Bloomberg)

Indonesia: Holds key rate as central bank sees inflation risk. Indonesia's central bank held its key interest rate at 7.5%, keeping monetary policy tight as it signaled vigilance against inflation risks and anticipates an end to U.S. monetary easing. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo and his board kept the reference rate unchanged for an 11th straight meeting, according to a central bank statement in Jakarta. It also kept the deposit facility rate unchanged at 5.75%. (Source: Bloomberg)

Source: Maybank Research - 8 Oct 2014

Small/Mid Caps: SKP RESOURCES (BUY; Target: RM0.83)


Author: UOBKayHian   |   Publish date: Fri, 3 Oct 10:37

We are positive on SKP’s proposal to acquire sister company Tecnic Group. Postacquisition, SKP will emerge as one of the largest plastic manufacturing companies in Malaysia. We expect SKP to achieve 58% yoy growth in FY16, should the acquisition be completed by the targeted Mar 15. Meanwhile, we believe SKP is in good stead and could secure new contracts with significant value, which will be its next key catalyst. A much larger earnings pool and growth visibility through FY18 will allow SKP to graduate into a mid-cap that typically commands better valuation. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of RM0.83.
Source: UOB Kay Hian Research - 3 Oct 2014

2014年10月7日星期二

消费税 新汽油津贴制 预算案2重头戏



2015財政预算案的两大重点相信是,消费税及汽油津贴新机制。

虽然政府上週意外的在预算案前,事先宣布削减汽油津贴20仙,並已在10月2日生效,然而,分析员相信,这不影响政府在本週五(10日)公佈新燃油津贴机制。

隨著这些两项措施出炉,政府也预期將会在2015预算案中,公佈缓和人民生活成本压力的措施。

消费税蓄势待发 財案公佈细节

消费税(GST)经过了重重的波折,终於即將落实。

政府在80年代末已经提出消费税的概念,在90年代初期开始做出多番的討论,在2005年的预算案中,一度被提及,並设定在2007年1月1日开始实施,之后却被展延。

直到2014年预算案中才算是有更確实的提出,不但设定在2015年4月开跑,也提出了其他的细节,比如6%的税率,標准税率、零税率及豁免徵税的项目清单。

同时,政府也提出了GST配套措施,包括,在2015年降低个人所得税1-3%,让大约30万人可以免除个人所得税,月入4000令吉及以下的家庭,將不须缴交所得税,此外,还有其他的税务减免等。

配合GST的到来,政府也將被徵收最高个人所得税率的收入范围,从超过10万令吉,提高至超过40万令吉。

同时,目前的最高26%税率,也將被降低至24%,24.5%以及25%。

而且,合作社所得税率也从2015估税年开始,降低1至2个百分点。企业所得税则在2016估税年,从25%降低至24%。

此外,为消费税做准备的会计及资讯工艺培训活动花费的费用,將可以在2014及2015年扣税。购买GST相关设备及软件的资金可在2016估税年之前,进行扣税等。

GST看来不会有太大的影响,因为早在2014財政预算案中已经预先张扬將会在2015年4月开跑,市场普遍相信,政府將在2015年预算案中公布GST的进一步详情。

马银行金英研究分析员预期,政府即將在2015財政预算案中公布GST的標准税率,零税率及豁免项目名单,可能会因为行业人士、商家及公眾人士的建议及回馈,而和先前的有些不同。

没登记遭罚款

根据目前进度缓慢的商家GST登记情况看来,分析员预期,首相会在预算案演词中,呼吁商家儘快在今年12月31日之前进行登记。没有登记的商家,將会面对严重的罚款。

此外,政府也可能在预算案中公布其他相关事项,比如加速公眾醒觉运动,发出消费者价格指南及提升税务审核及执法,还有加强价格监督方面的措施。

由於更多的项目预期將会被纳入零税率名单,加上,登记的商家没有预期的多。因此,分析员相信,GST施行之后的首两年,政府预计的收入將没有原先预期的高。

涵盖范围更广泛6%的GST將在2015年4月开徵,取代原有的5至10%销售税以及6%的服务税,在2014年財政预算案中,政府预算2015年4月至12月期间,政府预期將获得40亿令吉的税收,2016年则將获得90亿令吉的税收。

然而,政府隨后已经下调预测,分別至24亿及70亿令吉。以反映更多的零税率项目,和註册商家数目不如预期的风险。

降税 补贴 助家庭应对GST

经济学家普遍相信,政府在本次的预算案中宣布GST的细节同时,也將会公布一些协助家庭应对GST的措施。

GST是在消费人购物及使用服务时徵收的税务,然而,与商家不同的是,消费人无法申请进项税(input tax)回扣。

许多人对於在徵收GST之后,商家將不被允许继续徵收销售及服务税,这样一来,商家將可以从相对较低的税率中,降低商品及服务的价格,让消费者可以从中受惠的说法存有怀疑。

然而,全球多个国家在实施GST之际,会选择通过豁免特定项目的税务及直接提供补贴的方式,来舒缓低收入家庭的负担。

艾芬黄氏资本经济学家认为,大马相信也会遵循这样的模式。寻求方案以提高到家庭可支配收入。

经济学家指出,政府相信不会对一些项目徵收GST,这包括食物、金融服务、公用设设、教育及医疗服务等。

这些物品及服务將会被列入两个主要的类別,也就是零税率及豁免税务的组別,政府预料將在2015年预算案揭盅相关物品及服务清单。

经济学家相信,政府在2015財政预算案中,將会宣布一些直接的补贴方式,比如1马援助金。

提高1马援助金

此外,一些政府高官早前也向媒体放话,表示为月入3000令吉家庭提供的1马援助金,將从去年的650令吉,增加300令吉,至950令吉。

此外,原本不在援助范围內的月入3000令吉至4000令吉的家庭,也將会获得500令吉的援助金。

除了1马援助金之外,经济学家也预期,政府也將遵守承诺,在2015估税务年將个人所得税率调低。政府在2014年財政预算案中宣布,2015年个人所得税將下调1至3%。

经济学家相信,配合GST开徵,政府会在2015財政预算案中,宣布进一步调降个人所得税。並且,確保商家在GST实施前后没有牟取暴利。

推购物者指南

財政部副部长拿督阿末马斯兰早前指出,政府將採用2011年价格管制及防止暴利法令,以確保商家没有在GST上路之后,一律將价格调高。

首相纳吉早前也表示,政府將通过国家价格委员会加强执法,对付违法者,一些人关注的是,许多交易商可能趁火打劫,以GST作为涨价的藉口。

一些政府高官也透露,將会推出「购物者指南」的文件,展示GST前后的物品价格,为商家提供资讯,也协助消费者比较价格。

其他措施也可参考其他国家的经验,比方说,在新加坡,当地內陆税收局(IRAS)和贸工部,以及新加坡消费人协会(CASE)联手,针对公眾人士对於GST引发的不合理价格调涨投诉及回馈,採取行动。

在澳洲,作为税务改革计划的一部份,政府採取严谨的管制影响价格。

当地政府成立澳洲竞爭及消费人委员会(ACCC),以监督物品及服务的价格,確保商家不会不合理的调涨价格,以牟取暴利。

经济学家认为,大马和政府在2015年財政预算案中將会提供额外的执法细节,以对付牟取暴利者,同时也將会拨款进行消费人的醒觉活动。

燃油津贴新制料明年上路

在2015年预算案前,政府于10月1日宣布,降低燃油津贴,2日起,每公升Ron95汽油及柴油价格分別走高20仙。虽然市场早已经预期政府將会採取第2轮削减燃油津贴的行动,但是,这时机仍然让市场感到意外。

无论如何,市场相信,政府仍然会在2015財政年预算案中公佈燃油津贴新机制。

根据首相署部长拿督斯里阿都瓦希早前的谈话,政府希望能够通过推出新燃油津贴机制,以延续其合理化津贴的计划,有关计划將在2015年预算案中宣布。

他指出,这项新机制將能够確保中低收入群体,从政府的津贴中受益。

此外,他也透露,多家私人公司已经提呈建议书,针对这项燃油津贴机制提出他们的建议,这包括多层次的价格制定系统,根据人们的收入水平,所拥有的汽车类別及容量,区別可购买的津贴汽油数量。

也有报道指出,其中一些建议是让驾驶2000cc以下容量的汽车,及月入在5000令吉以下的人士,继续享受燃油津贴,这將会是通过大马卡来辨別。

经济学家认为,政府这项合理化津贴的制度,预期將在2015年正式生效。根据阿都瓦希,政府需要收集来自各消费组织,加油站业者,石油公司及行业代表的意见之后,才会確定这项新机制。

政府在去年9月重新启动津贴合理化行动,提高国內汽油价格,每公升RON95汽油及柴油价格各上调20仙,至2.10令吉及2令吉。此外,政府也废除了白糖津贴,为政府节省下38亿令吉的津贴开销。

根据2014年预算案,政府將津贴將会在2013年减少73亿,至394亿令吉。因此,政府第2轮削减汽油津贴的行动已经在预期之中。

无需电讯网络也能发讯息 FireChat因香港占中爆红



一款新的手机应用(app)因为香港占中抗议而爆红,在短短24小时内,香港的用户就激增了10万人。

这款手机应用名为FireChat。它能够让用户在没有电讯网络,或互联网的情况下,只通过手机无线电与蓝牙收发讯息。

根据《纽约时报》报道,在不联网的情况下,FireChat允许用户在距离较近的手机之间创建网络,最远通讯距离可达80码(大约73公尺)左右。

不过,如果有电讯信号或互联网,FireChat就会转用这两者收发讯息。

黄之锋吁下载以备不测

在香港占中示威现场,由于此前传出港府可能会切断网络,示威者纷纷下载这款手机应用,以便有备无患。

就连香港学民思潮召集人——黄之锋也在面子书专页上呼吁大家,下载与安装FireChat。

他说,如果手机在示威现场无法上网,可通过FireChat与附近的用户通讯,借此联络朋友,同时把现场情况向外发布,以免有人因为网上流言而自乱阵脚。


一夜之间增加十万用户

据英国《卫报》报道,在黄之锋的呼吁后,FireChat的香港用户激增。

而据《纽约时报》,开发FireChat的公司Open Garden披露,自星期日下午以来的24小时中,FireChat增加了10万名香港用户,其中星期日晚上的使用人数更达到顶峰,共有3万3000名用户同时在使用。

Open Garden高层达利戈(Christophe Daligault)接受《纽约时报》访问时说,FireChat在今年3月,即刚推出的仅仅10天之后,也曾在台湾“太阳花运动”中派上用场。

当时,许多参与“太阳花运动”的学生出于担忧网络终端,纷纷下载这款应用。

《卫报》指出,每次社会动荡时,总会有一种新科技崛起。2011年伦敦骚乱中爆红的是黑莓通讯(BlackBerry Messenger),阿拉伯之春中冒现的是推特,而香港占中抗议则是FireChat。

大马集会常有网络瘫痪

在马来西亚,过去的多场集会也出现手机通讯网络瘫痪的情况,以致讯息无法流传。

在2012年428集会,也曾出现通讯网络瘫痪,过后网络上传出是政府背后作梗之说。不过新闻、通讯与文化部已经否认以阻断器刻意干扰当天的通讯网络。反之,纯粹是太多集会者的关系。

http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/276344

Property Sector - Going South


Author: kltrader   |   Publish date: Fri, 3 Oct 09:59

  • New foreign entrants raise fears of a housing glut  in Iskandar Malaysia (IM).
  • Ability  to  absorb  ample  incoming  supply  of  high-rise condominiums  and  retail  space  by  end-2015/2016  remains our key concern.
  • Maintain  NEUTRAL;  we  prefer  Klang  Valley  over  IM.  Top  pick is Eco World (BUY; MYR6.59 TP).

What’s New

Findings  from  our  IM  site  visit  last  week  are  rather  similar  to  our visit  in  Apr  2014.  Malaysian  developers  are  scaling  back/slowing down  on  their  new  launches  in  IM  hotspots  i.e.  Danga  Bay  and Nusajaya-Medini  and  shifting  their  focus  to  landed/industrial properties  due  to  rising  competition  in  the  high-rise  integrated property  segment.  Guangzhou  R&F  (GZRF)  is  still  aggressive  in property  launches  while  Greenland  Group  (another  new  Chinese entrant)  is  now  registering  interest  for  its  Jade  Palace  project  in Danga  Bay.  There  may  be  a  few  more  land  sales  to  foreign developers in IM, from our channel checks.

What’s Our View

We  remain  cautious  about  the  increasingly  crowded  development space  in  IM.  Oversupply  of  apartments/retail  spaces  in  hotspots such  as  the  Nusajaya-Medini  and  Danga  Bay  areas  may  cause  a decline  in  property  values  over  the  medium  term.  Johor’s  House Price Index (HPI)  contracted 1.6% QoQ in 2Q14, the first decline  in 27  months  on  weaker  buyer  sentiment  due  to  government  cooling measures effective from Jan 2014. 
Geographically, we prefer the Klang Valley over IM. In our view, the strong  population  growth  potential  (>+40%  by  2020)  in  the  Klang Valley  offers  more  sustainable  demand  for  properties.  That  said, the  JB-Singapore  rapid  transit  system  could  reignite  investors’ interest in IM and IM related stocks.
Source: Maybank Research - 3 Oct 2014